Jon encounters Ygritte again in the season finale. Did he know she'd shoot?
I genuinely don't think he knows—that's what makes it a great scene. He appeals to her and says, "Look I have to do this, I have to. I love you and I know you're not going to hurt me." When he turns around, I don't think he knows what's going to happen so when that first arrow hits, it's a real shock. And he realizes he's in danger; she is his enemy now and he has to get out of there.
We know she's a dead shot—did she miss on purpose?
I don't know, but she's in a heightened state of emotion. It gets very confusing, any decisions you make in that state. She may not have gone for the major bodily organs, but she wants him to know she's upset, that's for sure.
Where does Jon draw the line? He killed Qhorin Halfhand, but hesitated when it came to killing the horse breeder.
I think he couldn't bring himself to kill an innocent man. With Qhorin, Jon was genuinely fighting for his life. He had to kill him because that was the plan all along, the plan that Qhorin set out. This was just an innocent man who's done nothing and that goes against everything Jon stands for. But he knows he can't do it; Ygritte knows he won't do it - and he doesn't.
By making it back to Castle Black, Jon fulfills his mission from Qhorin Halfhand. Was it worth the price?
I think it takes a huge toll on who he is. It's a hell of a way to lose your first love. I don't think he really knows, he just has to make decisions and he has to stick with his instinct. On a different day, his instinct could have told him to stay with Ygritte. But Jon has known all along he has to get back and defend the Wall. This whole trip has been a crazy journey for him but he has to stick to his morals.