COMPUBOX FACTORS: COMMON OPPONENTS & LASER-GUIDED BOMBS

When it comes to matchmaking opposites attract. Boxer-puncher fights often produce compelling action but sometimes fights between mirror images - especially punchers - are pleasingly combustible.

June 11, 2009 - by Compubox

On June 13 at Madison Square Garden, Miguel Cotto will defend his WBO welterweight title against recently stripped IBF king Joshua Clottey in a tank versus tank showdown, and the oddsmakers have Cotto a solid 3-to-1 favorite. Statistical factors that might determine the outcome include:

Common Opponents: Both men fought Antonio Margarito and Zab Judah with both losing to Margarito and beating Judah.

Each man enjoyed solid starts against Margarito. In the first four rounds Clottey's nearly 50 percent precision troubled Margarito, who out-threw Clottey 482-188 but out-landed him only 92-87. Meanwhile, Cotto used refined skills to amass a 174-121 overall connect advantage while throwing 121 fewer punches (530-409) in the first six rounds.

In the latter stages the Tornado was too much. Clottey, who out-connected Margarito 73-63 in power shots in the first four, broke his hand in the fifth and was never the same. Over the last eight rounds Margarito out-threw Clottey 1,193-269 en route to an all-time CompuBox record of 1,675 punches thrown in a 12 round fight. Although Clottey was out-landed 245-120 in that stretch, he landed at a 45 percent clip, which suggested he could have won with two healthy hands.

As for Cotto, the turning point was the seventh when Margarito was 48 of 130 to Cotto's 23 of 52. In the final five rounds Margarito out-landed Cotto 146-106 overall and 134-70 in power shots. But like Clottey, Cotto was far more accurate (43 percent to 32 overall, 46 to 39 in power shots). The discovery of Margarito's tainted wraps before the Mosley fight cast doubts on the Cotto win's legitimacy, so like Margarito-Clottey, Margarito-Cotto has a "what-if" quality about it.

Statistically, Clottey narrowly outdid Judah overall (122-117) but was badly out-jabbed (45-8) while Cotto out-landed "Super Judah" 292-132 overall, 78-42 in jabs and 214-90 in power shots, margins that were amplified in the fight's second half.

Laser Guided Bombs: Both are well-schooled boxers with superb power accuracy. Against Jennings, who tried to confuse Cotto with movement, Cotto landed 53 percent of power shots (72 of 135), including 70 percent in the final two rounds.

In April 2008 Clottey became the first to stop Jose Luis Cruz by landing 102 of 184 power shots (55 percent) over five rounds, including a wicked 31 of 41 (76 percent) in the final round. The pattern held against Margarito as he landed 47 percent (170 of 365). Judah was more accurate against both men (57 percent against Cotto, 52 percent against Clottey) but lost to both because they piled up better numbers (114-72 in connects, 31 percent accuracy for Clottey, 214-90 and 43 percent for Cotto).

Prediction: This will be a long punishing fight because both have proven staying power. Cotto's history of coming on strong in the second half will serve him well as he wins by 11th round TKO.