COMPUBOX FACTORS: THE HOMERING, THE BODY AND THE GUT

In his last defense, Berto outlanded Collazo 70-43 in total punches over the last two rounds to hold onto his title.

May 26, 2009 - by CompuBox

Even though Andre Berto holds the WBC welterweight title, many still perceive him as a work in progress. That's because he is part of boxing's deepest weight class and his world-class experience pales in comparison to that of Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, Joshua Clottey, Zab Judah and even the suspended Antonio Margarito.

Berto's evolution will continue May 30 against newly crowned IBF junior welterweight king Juan Urango in Hollywood, Fla. Factors that may decide the outcome include:

Home ring advantage: Since coming to the U.S. from Colombia in 2004, the Seminole Hard Rock and Casino has been Urango's second home. He has fought 12 times on American soil and this will be his ninth at the Hard Rock. Conversely, Berto has fought once in Florida (KO 1 William Johnson in October 2005).

Banging the Drum: Urango is an incredibly prolific body puncher. Of the 300 power punches he landed against Hermann Ngoudjo, 176 were body shots (more than the 159 Ngoudjo landed overall). In the five-minute 10th round alone, 42 of his 51 power connects were to the stomach and ribs. If Urango is to flatten Berto's tires, this will be his ticket.

A Matter of Style: Many think Naoufel Ben Rabah's quirky movement and combinations were enough to beat Urango, but Urango got the nod because he accrued better numbers. He threw more (589-488), landed more (104-99) and connected on more power shots (89-53 while out-throwing him 408-219). But movement alone won't be enough, as the fight with Ngoudjo showed. The tank-like Urango was at his best as he landed 315 of 862 (37 percent) to Ngoudjo's 159 of 778 (20 percent). He unleashed 72 punches per round (12 above the divisional average) and held Ngoudjo's jab to 12 percent (50 of 401).

Berto has quick hands, good power and mobility and he will need all those to offset Urango's aggression. He used his assets to pull away from Steve Forbes to win a wide decision. After being out-landed in three of the first four rounds, Berto went 7-0-1 in the final eight rounds, out-landing Forbes 102-57 overall and 87-44 in power shots. He needs to exercise similar patience to weather Urango's opening storm.

Championship Gut Check: Against Collazo, Berto survived two surges to grab a razor-thin decision. After winning the first two rounds, Collazo out-landed Berto 54-37 in the third and fourth. Berto then seized mathematical control in rounds five through eight as he led 94-37 in overall connects and 68-29 in power connects. In the ninth and 10th, Collazo staged a furious rally that saw him out-land Berto 70-43 overall and 65-36 in power shots. With the crown teetering, Berto dug deep in the 11th and 12th with a 63-43 overall and a 55-39 power punch finish that certified his championship quality desire.

Prediction: The 5-8 1/2 Berto will enjoy a rare height and reach advantage and he knows how to use them. Urango's body punching will test Berto's stamina, but he will win by unanimous decision.