COMPUBOX FACTORS: PHYSIOLOGY, PSYCHOLOGY, PRECISION

Once Chad Dawson's lopsided decision over Antonio Tarver was announced, everyone thought the issue was settled beyond doubt. But because Team Tarver inserted a rematch clause they will do it again Saturday in Las Vegas.

May 8, 2009 - by CompuBox

The conventional wisdom is that the rematch will be a mere repeat but the numbers reveal several reasons why it might not:

The raw numbers in Dawson-Tarver I were close: Due to Tarver's superior work rate (75 punches per round to 54), Dawson out-landed Tarver 236-226 and Tarver actually led 177-172 in power punch connects.

Dawson's late-round fade: Through eight Dawson led Tarver 151-122 overall and 109-85 in power connects but in the final four Tarver unleashed 91 punches per round to Dawson's 62, which led to advantages of 104-85 in total connects and 92-63 in power connects. The 10th saw both reach highs in total connects (30 for Dawson, 29 for Tarver) but in the 12th Tarver achieved fight highs for both attempted punches (103) and total connects (34).

Dawson's tendency to coast in the homestretch also occurred against Glen Johnson and Tomasz Adamek. Johnson out-landed Dawson 89-55 overall and 74-42 in power connects. Similarly, Adamek was dominated over the first nine only to drop Dawson in the 10th. In the 11th and 12th Adamek reached double-digit connects for the only time in the fight and in the 11th his 24-17 edge in total connects was his first since round one.

Tarver is today's King of the Rematches: Tarver is 4-0 in rematches against Eric Harding, Glen Johnson and Roy Jones (twice) and in Harding II and Jones III the statistical improvements were significant. Against Harding the first time, Tarver landed 20 percent of his punches and 25 percent of his power shots but in the rematch the numbers soared to 39 and 53. In Jones I, Tarver out-landed Jones 120-111 but Jones III Tarver was commanding (158-85 in total connects, 51-11 in jabs and 107-74 in power shots).

The factors in Dawson's favor include:

Physiology: At 26, Dawson is in his prime while Tarver turned 40 in November. Dawson is arguably boxing's best combination puncher and Tarver can't match Dawson's speed.

Psychology: Dawson will come into the rematch with confidence and he knows he has tools to become the first man to beat Tarver twice.

Overconfidence is his only danger and Tarver, knowing this could be his swan song, will look to seize on any vulnerability.

Precision: Dawson is an accurate power puncher and works the body religiously. Against Johnson he landed at a 42 percent clip and 60 of his 194 power connects were to the body.

Against Epifanio Mendoza he landed 58 percent (including 34 of his final 43 power shots) and of his 108 power connects 43 were body shots. Against Adamek he landed 49 percent of his power shots. That marksmanship will wear on any opponent, even the seasoned Tarver.

Prediction: As long as Dawson keeps his focus - especially late - he will capture a closer, but unanimous, decision.