COMPUBOX FACTORS: THE THREE FACES OF JUANMA

Rising star Juan Manuel Lopez will defend his WBO super bantamweight title against former two-division titlist Gerry Penalosa in Bayamon, Puerto Rico Saturday. Should "JuanMa" register a first round knockout - notable since Penalosa has never been stopped - he will become the first to record four consecutive opening round stoppages in title fights.

April 20, 2009 - by CompuBox

He shares the record with Joe Louis and Gerald McClellan with one caveat - Lopez's streak includes his title winning effort against Daniel Ponce de Leon while Louis' and McClellan's knockouts were all in title defenses.

Some factors that may determine the outcome include:

The Three Faces of JuanMa: While his last three fights have ended identically the way he went about it revealed different wrinkles. Against De Leon's volume attack Lopez was forced to fight backward. After De Leon dominated the opening half, Lopez scored a sudden knockdown with a crushing right uppercut. Once De Leon regained his feet Lopez turned tiger as several crisp right hooks sent the champ toppling again. Though DeLeon arose he was too wobbly to continue. Every one of Lopez's 16 connects was a power punch, of which he landed 43 percent of them. Conversely, De Leon was 6 of 41 overall (15 percent).

The second face took form in his first defense against Cesar Figueroa - quick-strike sniper. After starting the fight stalking behind seven range finding jabs Lopez caught Figueroa throwing a one-two with a blistering left cross-right hook that ended matters in just 47 seconds. He may have missed all his jabs, but he was 100 percent on his power shots. For his part, Figueroa was 0 for 3.

The final face emerged against Sergio Medina - intimidator. Lopez cut the ring skillfully to corner Medina, then scored three quick knockdowns to dispatch his cowering opponent in 98 seconds after landing 9 of 37. The overawed Medina managed to launch six blows, landing just one. Here Lopez was technical and methodical but ultimately destructive. Which face will we see against Penalosa?

Experience: The 36-year-old Penalosa had his first pro fight when Lopez was nearly six and won his first belt when Lopez was 13. He has fought 10 or more rounds 21 times while Lopez has had 25 fights and his 108 rounds in major title fights outstrips Lopez's 79 rounds overall. Penalosa is an intelligent counter-puncher with good instincts and if age has not overtaken him he has the tools to exploit Lopez's limited elite experience.

Penalosa has a knack of making the most of his punches, even when the raw numbers are against him. Against Jhonny Gonzalez Penalosa was out-landed 103-69 overall and 72-52 in power shots, but it was he who scored the seventh round KO with a single left hook to the body after averaging just 51 punches thrown per round.

Against common foe DeLeon many thought Penalosa's countering was enough despite being out-thrown 1,399-481, out-landed 259-175 and out power-punched 213-182. Penalosa's success will depend entirely on whether he can land something hard between Lopez's flurries.

Prediction: Youth, home ring advantage and momentum will overtake savvy, but it'll take a while. Lopez KO 7.