THE COMPUBOX FACTOR

The most avoided fighter of last decade will meet the most avoided fighter of this decade when Winky Wright battles Paul Williams April 11 at Las Vegas' Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. The scheduled 12 round bout will be at middleweight, the fourth straight fight "The Punisher" has jumped weight classes.

April 7, 2009 - by CompuBox

The factors that will determine the winner include:

The Activity Factor: Wright has not fought since July 2007 when he lost a lopsided decision to Bernard Hopkins while Williams has endured a career's worth of twists and turns during that same period. He won the WBO title from Antonio Margarito, lost to and regained it from Carlos Quintana, starched Andy Kolle at middleweight and won the interim WBO junior middleweight belt from Verno Phillips.

Aside from in-ring activity, there are the respective punch outputs. In 13 Williams fights tracked by CompuBox since 2001, he averaged 79.7 per round while the typical opponent averaged 41 fewer. He nearly doubled Margarito's output (104.7 to 54.3 per round- the same Margarito who holds the Compubox record of 1675 punches thrown in a fight) and in recent bouts he has improved his power. Against Phillips Williams threw 85.2 per round to Phillips' 49.5 but landed 43 percent of his power shots, a jump from the 31.5 percent he landed against Margarito.

Meanwhile, in 15 CompuBox tracked fights Wright has averaged 63.2 per round but his foes averaged 64.2, meaning, unlike Williams, his attack does nothing to inhibit his foes from throwing. The secret to Winky's success is his defense as they land far fewer blows (9.5 percent of jabs to Wright's 28.3, 27.5 percent of power shots to Winky's 40.1 and 20.9 percent overall to Wright's 33.4). The outcome will hang on whether that celebrated "shell defense" can weather Williams' hyperactive attack?

The Height Factor: At 6-1 with an 82-inch wingspan, Williams is the "longest" fighter of Wright's 55-fight career. Wright has gone 0-1-1 against the last two six-footers he fought - the 6-1 Hopkins and Jermain Taylor - because he lacked the height and reach to command distance as he had at 154. Still, he did well: Against Taylor he threw five fewer blows (53.6 to 58.6) but was five percent more accurate and had a 123-122 power connect edge. He enjoyed a slim edge against Hopkins (167-152 in total connects) but "The Executioner" won on his power numbers (143 of 549 to 80 of 328).

Thus, the man who establishes his preferred distance and output will be the winner.

The Southpaw Factor: Incredibly, Williams is the first southpaw Wright has fought since Adrian Dodson in December 1997 while Wright will be Williams' fourth lefty in his last five fights. While Williams' lone loss came against Quintana, he proved in the rematch that he learned from his mistakes.

Prediction: Every factor weighs heavily in Williams' favor. He is 10 years younger, rangier, more active recently and is punching harder. Wright, knowing this could be his last stand as an elite fighter, will be in shape and will be competitive. It won't be enough. Williams W 12.