RUNNING THE NUMBERS WITH COMPUBOX

The first card on HBO's World Championship Boxing series in 2009 is an intriguing welterweight showdown between WBC champion Antonio Margarito (37-5, 27 KO) and former three division king Shane Mosley (45-5, 38 KO) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

January 22, 2008 - by CompuBox

The 30-year-old "Tijuana Tornado" is a solid 4-to-1 favorite to beat the 37-year-old "Sugar Shane," but their combative mindsets should still make for an exciting and potentially dramatic night for boxing fans.

This analysis will break down their performances against a recent common opponent - Miguel Cotto:

* Mosley and Cotto both landed 248 punches in their November 10, 2007 bout, though Mosley had to throw 99 more (774-675) to get there. Mosley's 774 total punches thrown vs. Cotto were the most he's thrown in 25 of his fights tracked by CompuBox. He also landed a career best 216 power punches vs, Cotto, 42 more than he landed in his upset win over Oscar delaHoya on 6/17/00. Not bad output for the then-36 yr. old. Despite owning a seven-inch reach advantage (74 inches to 67), it was Cotto who connected with more jabs (98-71) despite throwing 151 fewer (288-439). Conversely, Mosley topped Cotto in total power connects 177-150 even though he logged 52 fewer attempts (335-387).

The most surprisingly strategic turn unfolded in the final three rounds, sessions that in the past saw the Puerto Rican pound his weary foes into submission. Mosley, however, was the physically and statistically stronger man as he was 62 of 201 to Cotto's 52 of 156 overall while out-landing him 49-34 in power shots. Cotto used his then-underrated jab to guide his way through the crisis, out-landing the speedier Mosley 26-15 even though he threw 52 fewer (82-134). In fact, Cotto's jab had been effective throughout as he out-performed Mosley in eight rounds and reached double-digit connects four times, all in the first six rounds. But while Cotto showed off his jab, he exposed a weakness - vulnerability to power shots. Mosley landed 53 percent of his 335 power attempts, topping 50 percent accuracy seven rounds (including the first six) and never dropping below 43 percent (round eight).

* When Margarito and Cotto squared off this past July 26 in Las Vegas, the Tornado brutally capitalized on the chinks in Cotto's armor that Mosley uncovered. While Cotto was outdoing Margarito in terms of total connects (280-267 by fight's end) it was Margarito's steady bombardment of power blows that eventually turned the fight his way. Like the first fight between Julio Cesar Chavez and Meldrick Taylor, the Philadelphian controlled the bout's distance and flow only to absorb a unglamorous but strength-sapping array of hooks, crosses, uppercuts and body work that eventually bloodied his face and weakened his resolve.

While Cotto won seven of the 11 rounds in terms of total connects, it was Margarito's withering effectiveness in rounds four through 10 that set up the finish in round 11. Though Cotto held a slight edge in total connects in that span (184-181), 166 of Margarito's connects were power shots - a staggering 91.7 percent - while Cotto logged 113 power connects (61.4 percent).

Also, the residual wear and tear of defending against 471 power attempts not only wore Cotto down but also inhibited the Puerto Rican's power attack as he tried just 248 power shots. While he enjoyed superior accuracy (46 percent to 35 percent), Margarito's size and strength proved to be too much. In the 11th, Margarito was 24 of 56 (including 21 of 43 in power shots) while Cotto was a mere 6 of 20 (5 of 10) before Kenny Bayless stopped the bout at the 2:05 mark.

Prediction: After years of toiling in the shadows Margarito is now enjoying the fruits of his victory over Cotto and he will not be eager to surrender them so easily. On the other hand, Mosley has continued to challenge himself time and again at an age when others would be content to rest on their laurels. Both men are proud warriors and that pride will come through from first bell to last. Ultimately, chronology and physiology will be the two deciding factors. Margarito is far closer to his physical prime and his withering volume-punching attack will gradually chip away at Mosley's physical and psychological armor. Out of respect for Mosley's proven durability, the prediction will be a comfortable unanimous decision for Margarito but if anyone has the tools to inflict the first stoppage loss on Mosley it is the "Tijuana Tornado."