BERT SUGAR'S PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

October 16, 2008 - by Bert Sugar with Steve Small

STRENGTHS OF BOTH FIGHTERS

KELLY PAVLIK - (34-0, 30 KO's)

* Pavlik possesses firepower in both hands, which he throws with leverage unseen since Tommy Hearns, both on the inside and from the outside.

* Uses his looong left to set up his power right.

* Can effectively capitalize upon his opponent's mistakes--as he did in his first fight against Jermain Taylor, countering Taylor's jab and blocking Taylor's wide, looping punches before unleashing his dynamite right.

* Has extraordinary "chin whiskers" and amazing recuperative powers, as he demonstrated in both the Edison Miranda and Jermain Taylor fights.

BERNARD HOPKINS - (48-5-1, 32 KO's)

* A classic old-school fighter, Hopkins combines savvy and slickness with a determination to do anything to win.

* Hopkins stands right in front of his opponent, fighting from a wide stance with both hands held high and chin held low, all the better to give his opponent little to hit, especially with a solid shot.

* A tremendous all-around fighter with no glaring weaknesses, Hopkins has been able to outbox punchers and outpunch boxers--wearing them down with punches to the body, both over and under their guards.

* Hopkins has an unusual way of getting inside. While most fighters step forward behind their jab, Hopkins steps forward while throwing right-hand crosses or left-hand hooks, often confusing his opponents.

WEAKNESSES OF BOTH FIGHTERS

PAVLIK

* Pavlik is a one-gear fighter, walking straight in on his opponent with little or no head movement, offering a stationary target for Hopkins.

* Pavlik allows himself to be tied up on the inside, Hopkins's "turf."

* Although Pavlik is one of the heaviest hitters in the middleweight division since Rocky Graziano, in Hopkins he is facing a fighter who has never been knocked out and only knocked down twice (by Segundo Mercado 14 years ago) and may become frustrated by his inability to hurt Hopkins.

HOPKINS

* At 43-going-on-Social Security, Hopkins is one of the wonders of the boxing world. And while, as he says, "nobody has told me to quit," his body may one day and he could become boxing's version of Dorian Gray right in the middle of a fight.

* Not a one-punch knockout fighter, Hopkins cannot afford to trade howitzers with the heavier-hitting Pavlik.

* Hopkins has shown a tendency to pace himself, sometimes fighting not only in spots but only part of a fight--as witnessed by his fighting only six rounds in each of his two Jermain Taylor fights.

WHAT EACH MUST DO TO WIN

PAVLIK

* Wear Hopkins down, press him and make him expend energy. When Hopkins circles the ring, slide with him and cut him off, make him fight three minutes a round.

* Throw hard jabs. When Calzaghe fought Hopkins he pawed and slapped with his jab in the first half of the fight, allowing Hopkins to easily move away from or step inside Calzaghe's jab. In the second half of the fight, Calzaghe threw fast, stiff jabs, forcing Hopkins to stay stationary and block them, enabling Calzache to land hooks and crosses. Pavlik needs to do the same.

* Keep his hands up and step to his right to offer Hopkins' most effective technique, that of waiting for his opponent to stop punching and then stepping forward with a right-hand lead and moving in like a battering ram, his head coming right behind his fists.

* Pavlik cannot play cat-and-mouse games with Hopkins. He must ignore Hopkins' tricks and feints and not let Hopkins' street fighting take him out of his gameplan.

HOPKINS.

* Hopkins must control the pace of the fight. In recent fights he has shown he cannot go twelve rounds at a fast pace and only fights in spurts.

* Hopkins is all defense from the outside. He must circle away from Pavlik and not let him set his feet.

* Hopkins needs to step in with right hand leads, get inside and stay there. Inside Hopkins is a much better fighter than Pavlik, who tends to leave himself open when punching inside.