COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

July 9, 2008 - by CompuBox

WBO/IBF heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko is considered the best of the belt holders for several reasons. First, he is the most experienced - his 53 pro fights and 13 championship bouts far exceed those amassed by WBC champ Samuel Peter (31 fights, one title bout) and WBA king Ruslan Chagaev (25 fights, two title bouts). Second, at 6-6½ with an 81½-inch reach, Klitschko is anatomically more imposing than the 6-1 Chagaev (74-inch reach) and the 6-0 Peter (77-inch reach) - and size does matter when it comes to impressing the sporting masses. Finally, Klitschko had long been considered a vastly skilled offensive powerhouse, and his KO to victory ratio of 86 percent ranks among the highest in divisional history.

Thus, the 32-year-old Klitschko is a solid 5-to-1 favorite to defeat 36-year-old mandatory challenger Tony Thompson (31-1, 19 KO) July 12 at the Color Line Arena in Hamburg, Germany. If successful, he would notch his fifth defense of the IBF strap and his sixth of the WBO belt (first in his second reign).

While Klitschko will remain the largest and most experienced of the heavyweight champs, his image as an overpowering force is in serious doubt. With the exception of the Lamon Brewster rematch last July in Cologne - a bout that saw him average 72 punches and an incredible 58 attempted jabs per round - "Dr. Steelhammer" has adopted a far more cautious offensive approach. His three defeats to Ross Puritty, Corrie Sanders and Brewster all came by knockout and his issues with stamina contributed mightily to each. To compensate, Hall of Fame trainer Emanuel Steward had Klitschko emphasize his long reach and command of distance. By keeping his opponents at long range, Klitschko reduced the likelihood that his below-average chin would be exploited.

These principles were showcased during Klitschko's last two fights against southpaws - the April 2006 rematch with then IBF champ Chris Byrd (KO 7) and his most recent outing against Sultan Ibragimov in February - and since Thompson is also left-handed it is likely that Klitschko will apply the same blueprint.

Against Byrd, Klitschko rolled up dominant total numbers in comparison to Byrd's - he threw 148 more punches and his 117 connects matched the number "Rapid Fire" threw in the fight. His 57-20 edge in connected jabs off 79 more attempts (146-67) combined with his 60-31 bulge in power shots off 69 more attempts (119-50) were reflective of his complete superiority. But when one delves deeper into the statistics, a picture of controlled caution emerges.

Consider:

- Klitschko averaged 37.9 punches per round, nearly 18 percent below the divisional norm of 46.1.

- His 17 power punches per round were 10 blows - or 37 percent - below the heavyweight average and his 8.6 power connects per round was nearly 25 percent beneath the norm of 11.5.

- Finally, his jab-to-power punch ratio was 55-45 in favor of jabs, a vast departure from the typical heavyweight who sports a 58-42 ratio in favor of power punches.

The same pattern was even more pronounced against Ibragimov:

- Klitschko averaged just 29 punches per round, nearly 39 percent below the divisional norm and almost 25 percent below the levels established in the Byrd rematch.

- He averaged only 8.6 power punches per round - an anemic 69 percent below the typical heavyweight and a little less than 50 percent below the Byrd fight - and his 3.3 connects per round was 73 percent below the divisional norm and 62 percent less than the Byrd bout.

- The jab-to-power punch ratio was 70-30 in favor of jabs.

The raw statistics for Klitschko-Ibragimov were somewhat less lopsided in the Ukrainian's favor. Klitschko out-landed Ibragimov 148-97 while throwing just 32 more punches (348-316) and scored a 108-16 landslide in jabs. Ibragimov, forced to bull his way inside Klitschko's longer arms, did amass an 81-40 edge in power connects, but Klitschko used his size to dictate a long-range - and dreadfully dull - contest.

The new style has its benefits, and efficiency is one of them. Against Byrd, Klitschko landed 44 percent of his total punches and slightly more than 50 percent of his power shots - six and seven percentage points higher than the typical heavyweight. Against Ibragimov, he landed 43 percent overall (five percent above average) and 38.8 percent of his power punches (a little less than four below the norm).

Another positive effect can be seen in his dominant jab, which is not supposed to be a viable weapon against southpaws because the lefty's right glove is in perfect position to block it.

In the two fights with Byrd and Ibragimov, Klitschko averaged 20.6 jabs and landed 42 percent of them, nearly 11 percentage points higher than normal.

Conversely, Byrd and Ibragimov managed just 10.7 attempted jabs and 1.9 connects per round, which short-circuited the rest of their respective offenses.

Finally, Klitschko's measured approach inhibited Byrd and Ibragimov from landing the power shots they needed to turn the tide. Though they landed a combined 48.9 percent of their power punches, they could only launch 12.1 per round (55 percent less than the heavyweight average of 27).

Should Klitschko continue this "four-corners" slowdown approach against Thompson, however, it could mean disaster because Thompson - at least in his two fights against Dominick Guinn and Timor Ibragimov - showed he doesn't fight down to his competition.

Thompson vaulted onto the world stage after scoring a dominant 12 round decision over Guinn in June 2006. Guinn was two months removed from a 10-round victory over Audley Harrison and had promised to be more active. Though he tried in the early rounds, Thompson's activity level slowly broke him down and huge rallies in the sixth and 10th rounds cemented the upset win.

Thompson built up overwhelming statistical edges over the notoriously phlegmatic Guinn, whose 35 punches per round were two more than Klitschko's two-fight average against Byrd and Ibragimov. Thompson averaged 59 punches per round, out-landing Guinn 306-137 overall, out-throwing him 711-417, landing 52 percent of his 416 power shots and dominating behind the jab, out-throwing Guinn 295-97 and out-landing him by an incredible 91-9.

The template established against Guinn held up nearly eight months later against Timor Ibragimov, who is not related to Klitschko victim Sultan. Ibragimov averaged 37 punches per round and failed to establish his jab as he landed just eight percent of his 130 attempts. Meanwhile, Thompson was as methodically effective as he was against Guinn as he averaged 55 punches per round (nine above the divisional average), mounted 71-11 jab connect and 111-71 power connect advantages and out-landed Ibragimov 182-82 while throwing 180 more punches.

Unlike Klitschko, Thompson stresses his power game over the jab as he amassed a 58-42 ratio in favor of power shots (identical to the divisional average), though he achieved better balance against Ibragimov (52-48 in favor of power punches).

Prediction: Despite the long odds in Klitschko's favor, there are reasons to favor the challenger. At 6-5 with an 81½ -inch reach, Thompson is one of the few opponents who can look Klitschko in the eye, and more importantly, one of the few that has the arm length to jab with him. Plus, he is familiar with overseas travel. Besides serving as a sparring partner for Klitschko and others, Thompson ostensibly earned the title shot by knocking out local hero Luan Krasniqi in five rounds last July at the same arena he will fight Klitschko. Thus, Thompson will not be fighting in strange surroundings. Finally, he has a winner's mindset because he has not lost in eight years and 27 fights.

A big potential negative is Thompson's age (he will turn 37 in October) and the fact that Klitschko is by far the best and most talented opponent he has ever faced. The pressure that comes with fighting the world's best heavyweight before a hostile crowd can also play havoc with his performance. Also, Klitschko has an extremely hard and educated jab and Thompson will likely see more jabs per round than the number of overall punches thrown by Guinn or Timor Ibragimov.

The last time Klitschko fought before his home fans, he impressively dissected Brewster before his onetime conqueror retired on the stool. The positive energy Klitschko will feel from fighting at home - and the desire to reverse the negative press following the Sultan Ibragimov snoozer - will offer him enough fuel to register a more aesthetically pleasing 10th round stoppage, allowing him to once again stand tall among the world's heavyweights.