COMPUBOX POST-FIGHT ANALYSIS

May 5, 2008 - by Compubox

From Oscar de la Hoya's standpoint, Saturday night's fight with Steve Forbes was intended to achieve three things. The first was to get back on the winning track, which he did by near shutout unanimous decision (120-108 and 119-109 twice). The second was to further confirm his drawing power, which he mostly did by attracting more than 27,000 to the Home Depot Center in Carson, Calif. And, finally, to give boxing fans and observers reason to think that a September rematch with pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather would turn out any differently. While he didn't get the spectacular knockout he craved, he did apply the lessons he learned from the first fight against a smaller, less talented version of "The Pretty Boy."

The biggest criticism was the absence of the jab in the late rounds, and against Forbes it was the dominant weapon. He threw 34 jabs per round, the highest average since launching 39 per round against Fernando Vargas nearly four years earlier. De La Hoya achieved double-digit connects in eight of the 12 rounds en route to averaging 11 per round while also limiting Forbes' effectiveness. Despite throwing 64 more jabs (470-406) Forbes landed less than half of the rate (15 percent to De La Hoya's 31). The jab gulf was widest in the 10th when De La Hoya out-connected Forbes 13-2.

Another long-held criticism was De La Hoya's tendency to fade in the late rounds, and at least on this night he showed he could fight at a consistent rate. Over the first eight rounds, De La Hoya averaged 66 punches thrown and 21 connected per round (exceeding the welterweight averages of 58 and 20) but in rounds nine through 12 he actually accelerated his work rate and success as he averaged 71 punches and 22 connects. De La Hoya exceeded 20 connects in eight of the 12 rounds - including three of the final four rounds - peaking at 29 in round two. Meanwhile Forbes only reached the 20-connect plateau once when he landed 21 in round four.

De La Hoya also achieved near perfect symmetry between jabs and power punches as he went 127 of 406 in jabs and 126 of 404 in power punches (a 31 percent rate for both categories). His hand speed and combination punching was excellent for a 35-year-old lighter weight fighter, but his punches lacked the heft of previous years.

As for Forbes, he nearly matched De La Hoya in work rate (776 punches to 810 for "The Golden Boy") but his success rate in terms of raw numbers paled in comparison. Forbes was out-landed 253-152 overall, 127-69 in jabs and 126-83 in power punches. In the first eight rounds he averaged 65 punches and 14 connects, but while he maintained his output over the last four rounds (64) his success rate dropped by a third (9.5).

De La Hoya's dominance is further reflected by the fact that of a possible 36 rounds to be won in jabs, power punches and overall punches, De La Hoya amassed a 31-2-3 mark.

If this fight was to serve as a dress rehearsal for September, then it was a success because he got in 12 rounds of work against a good and willing but ultimately out-classed opponent. But did it serve as a barometer for how he will do against Mayweather in the rematch? That's another question for another day, but at least he's going to get the chance to try.