BERT SUGAR'S PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

APRIL 17, 2008 - by Bert Sugar with Steve Small

STRENGTHS OF BOTH FIGHTERS

BERNARD HOPKINS

- Over the course of his career Hopkins has faced a better quality of opponents than Calzaghe, outboxing punchers and outpunching boxers.

- A classic old-school type of fighter, Hopkins stands right in front of his opponents, fighting from a wide stance with both hands held high and chin low, giving them little to hit, especially with a solid shot.

- Hopkins has an unusual way of getting inside. While most fighters step forward behind their jab, looking to throw power punches, Hopkins steps forward while throwing right crosses or left hooks, something that tends to confuse opponents.

- A rough, do-anything-to-win fighter, Hopkins fights on the edge of the rulebook, in a bend-but-don't-break fashion--resorting to holding and hitting while fighting on the inside, using head and left shoulder inside, and even hitting on the break.

JOE CALZAGHE

- Calzaghe is always in motion, throwing punches and always outworks his opponent.

- Possesses a good, long jab, and throws it constantly, landing a high percentage of his shots.

- Calzaghe likes to throw fast flurries of arm punches to opponent's head making opponent raise hands, then digging hard shots to opponent's body.

- Calzaghe moves very well and is excellent when standing in front of his opponent, landing punches then stepping away, either to his left or right.

WEAKNESSES OF BOTH FIGHTERS

HOPKINS

- Notoriously slow to start, a strategy that lost him both fights against Jermain Taylor, Hopkins cannot afford to sit back and let Calzaghe take early command of the action.

- Hopkins is slow to set up and get his punches off, a minor flaw, but one which could put him at a disadvantage against the much faster punching Calzaghe.

- Not a one-punch knockout fighter, Hopkins cannot afford to trade firepower with the naturally heavier and heavier-hitting Calzaghe.

- At 43-going-on-Social Security, Hopkins is so far past his prime he couldn't find it in his rear view mirror. And although he has rarely shown signs of age, there is always the possibility that he will become boxing's version of Dorian Gray and suddenly turn old right before our eyes.

CALZAGHE

- Calzaghe has never fought anyone like Hopkins before and never had to endure anything like Hopkins' trash-taking before--which may, before fight time, have gotten into his head.

- Most of Calzaghe's punches--crosses, hooks and especially jabs--are slaps or arm punches.

- Calzaghe tends to hold his hands low when he punches, leaving himself open to counters when he flurries.

WHAT MUST EACH DO TO WIN

HOPKINS

- Hopkins cannot cede the early going to Calzaghe, but must "get off the dime" early to ensure that Calzaghe doesn't win too many of the early rounds and force Bernard to play "catch-up" down the stretch where his 43-year-old legs might betray him.

- Hopkins must get inside Calzaghe's long reach, taking away Calzaghe's advantage on the outside and turning it to his advantage on the inside where he can engage in that voodoo he do so well, namely roughhousing.

- Hopkins needs to be mindful of the pattern of Calzaghe's attack, which is to pity-pat his opponents to death with slap-punch-after-slap-punch until they're almost lulled to sleep, then come across with his power punch.

- Hopkins must keep his head down and hands up, all the better to protect himself against Calzaghe's patented flurries, then counter.

CALZAGHE

- Instead of waiting to see what Hopkins will do, as so many of Hopkins' opponents have, Calzaghe must go after him from the "git-go."

- Calzaghe must outwork Hopkins, forcing him to use his 43-year-old legs.

- Calzaghe must step left, away from Hopkins' right hand, making it difficult for Hopkins to counter.

Bert Randolph Sugar is the co-author of Angelo Dundee's autobiography, "My View from the Corner." On sale at better bookstores everywhere.