COMPUBOX ANALYSIS: COTTO VS. GOMEZ

by CompuBox

Alfonso Gomez, perhaps the most popular alum of "The Contender" series, will attempt to become a champion when he fights Miguel Cotto for Cotto's WBA welterweight title April 12 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Cotto (31-0, 25 KO), universally ranked among boxing's top pound-for-pound fighters, is a solid 7-to-1 favorite to defeat Gomez (18-3-2, 8 KO), but the Guadalajara native is used to facing - and overcoming - long odds. After all, his defeat of prohibitive favorite Peter Manfredo Jr. in their first "Contender" match served as the launching pad for his current acclaim.

The 27-year-old Gomez enjoyed his best year as a pro as he scored dominant victories over Martin Concepcion (KO 7) and Arturo Gatti (KO 7) and out-pointed the durable Ben Tackie over 10 rounds. The three victories were to have served as a springboard for a crossroads fight with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., but instead it morphed into this title opportunity.

The Concepcion fight was part of the "U.S. vs. U.K." edition of "The Contender" that took place on March 30, 2007 in Newcastle, England and in that bout Gomez showcased improved boxing skills, underrated hand speed and excellent precision. Gomez set the tone of the fight in the first round when he connected on 28 of his 57 punches (49 percent), including 20 of his 35 jabs (57 percent), while limiting Concepcion to 4 of 41 overall (10 percent) and 2 of 30 jabs (7 percent). The pattern held throughout the rest of the bout as Gomez piled up massive statistical advantages over his out-classed foe. His jab was extraordinarily effective as he averaged more than 17 connects per round, nearly tripling the divisional average of 6. He landed 121 of 238 jabs for 51 percent accuracy while holding Concepcion to 23 of 188 jabs (12 percent). His success with the jab amplified his overall success as he topped 40 percent accuracy in five of the seven rounds, with his peak coming in the third when he landed 41 of 66 (62 percent). The third round also saw Gomez record his bests for jabs (22 of 32, 69 percent) and power punches (19 of 34, 56 percent).

In all, Gomez landed 201 of 426 (47 percent) to Concepcion's 73 of 413 (18 percent), and though Concepcion threw 38 more power shots (225-188), Gomez was far more successful (80-50). The numbers game simply proved too much for Concepcion to overcome.

Nearly four months after blasting out Concepcion he would do the same to Arturo Gatti, whose popularity was such that the affable Gomez was cast in the unusual role of villain. One major factor was that the fight took place at Boardwalk Hall, known as "The House

That Gatti Built," but Gomez did not let the hostile atmosphere prevent him from inflicting a clinical - and sometimes brutal - dissection.

Gomez out-landed Gatti in every round, and while Gomez's jab was again effective (he was 18 of 37 in round four and 18 of 41 in round five) it was Gomez's power punching prowess that proved to be definitive. From the first round (when he out-landed Gatti 15-2 in that category) to the last (when Gomez amassed a sickening 40-6 edge), Gomez feasted on the 35-year-old Gatti's decayed defense with blow after blow. In all Gomez connected on 142 of 274 power shots (52 percent) to Gatti's 29 of 113 (26 percent) en route to a 216-74 rout in total connects. In the final round alone Gomez landed 44 of 77 (57 percent) to Gatti's 6 of 32 (19 percent) in just over two minutes of action and the last punch, a flush right to the jaw, sent Gatti to the canvas and into retirement.

Gomez's final fight of 2007 against the leather-tough Tackie saw Gomez achieve offensive balance. Though he maintained a hot pace (91 punches per round), he offered an almost perfect union of jabs and power punches as he landed 140 of 538 jabs (26 percent) and 142 of 368 power shots (39 percent). Gomez topped the 100-punch mark in rounds three through six, topping off at 115 in the fifth. In the first five rounds Gomez was extraordinarily busy with the jab as he averaged 64 per round, six more than the overall welterweight average of 58 punches thrown. But the second half of the fight saw Tackie's constant pressure have an effect on Gomez's offense. In the first half of the bout Gomez averaged exactly 100 punches per round, but in round 6-10 his activity drop to 81. While that number is still well above average, it did represent a nearly 20 percent drop in production. And as Gomez tired, Tackie experienced better offensive success as his 158-79 deficit in connects over the first five rounds shrunk to 124-109 in the second half. This trend might mean something against Cotto, who is known for exerting inexorable - and ultimately punishing - pressure.

Against Concepcion, Gatti and Tackie Gomez averaged a combined 29 of 75 overall, 14 of 41 jabs and 15 of 35 power punches while holding his opponents to 14 of 63, 6 of 33 and 7 of 30 respectively. Gomez's defensive numbers are better than the divisional averages, but one can't deny that Cotto represents by far Gomez's most formidable opponent.

As good a year as Gomez enjoyed in 2007, Cotto's was even better as he stopped mandatory challenger Oktay Urkal in March and Zab Judah in June (both in 11 rounds) while out-pointing Shane Mosley in November in a much anticipated showdown. For his performance, Cotto received more than a few Fighter of the Year votes and the bout with Gomez is largely viewed as a steppingstone toward a summer encounter with the winner of Kermit Cintron-Antonio Margarito II.

The 37-year-old Urkal was Cotto's mandatory, and while he managed to throw slightly more punches (508-505) he couldn't match him in the number of connects (223-147).

Urkal's mobile style limited Cotto to 46 punches per round, 12 below the divisional average of 58, but he proved to be very efficient. He landed 44 percent of his punches overall and 54 percent of his power shots (168 of 313). He even out-jabbed Urkal as he connected on 55 of his 192 attempts (29 percent) while keeping Urkal to 20 of 228 (9 percent).

Against the more combative Judah, Cotto cranked up the output considerably as he threw 62 punches per round as opposed to the 46 against Urkal. Yet Cotto maintained his effectiveness by landing 43 percent of his blows against Judah versus 44 percent against Urkal. Like the Urkal fight, Cotto separated himself from his opponent because of his pinpoint power punching. Against "Super Judah," Cotto landed 214 of his 481 power shots (45 percent) while Judah unloaded just 159 punches over 12 rounds, a differential of 29 attempts per round. When Judah chose to throw power punches he landed at a 57 percent rate, but Cotto's relentless pressure combined with the thudding power on his blows discouraged the New Yorker from taking more risks.

Cotto increased his level of opposition another step when he faced Mosley at Madison Square Garden and "Sugar Shane" didn't disappoint as he pushed Cotto harder over a longer period of time than any opponent yet. The fight's ebbs and flows are reflected in the numbers as Mosley out-landed Cotto in seven of the 12 rounds in terms of overall numbers. However, the round-by-round numbers revealed two statistical ironies. First, puncher Cotto outperformed boxer Mosley eight rounds to four in jabs en route to a 98 of 288 (34 percent) to 71 of 439 (16 percent) edge. And second, boxer Mosley out-landed puncher Cotto nine rounds to three in power shots en route to an edge of 177 of 335 (53 percent) to 150 of 387 (39 percent). Yet when the dust settled, each man connected 248 times - though Mosley needed 99 more punches to achieve that figure.

Cotto has crafted a well-earned reputation as a fighter who grinds opponents to dust in the later rounds, and that was the case with the Urkal and Judah bouts. In the first seven rounds of the Urkal bout, Cotto was 147 of 362 (41 percent) and Urkal was 102 of 360 (28 percent), an advantage that included a 113-89 edge in power connects. In the final four rounds, Cotto was 76 of 143 (53 percent) while Urkal was 45 of 148 (30 percent), and the Puerto Rican landed 55 of 89 power shots (62 percent) while Urkal was 38 of 78 (49 percent).

The pattern held up in the Judah bout as Cotto was 183 of 469 (39 percent) and Judah was 100 of 343 (29 percent) overall in the first seven rounds, a span that saw Cotto with a 124-66 edge in power punch connects. But in the final four rounds, Cotto pulled away as he went 76 of 143 overall (53 percent) to Judah's 45 of 148 (30 percent) while also going 90 of 167 (54 percent) in power connects as opposed to Judah's 24 of 42 (57 percent).

However, Cotto-Mosley did not follow that trend as "Sugar Shane" was the more effective fighter in the final three rounds.

In that stretch, Mosley out-landed Cotto 62-51 and out-threw him 201-156. Most observers had Mosley winning the last round and fans were treated to the rare sight of Cotto showing signs of weakness down the stretch. Still, Cotto gutted it out when he needed to and the close unanimous decision in his favor was viewed as appropriate.

Against Urkal, Judah and Mosley, Cotto averaged 22 of 55 blows overall to his opponents' 15 of 51. The opponents out-jabbed Cotto in terms of raw numbers (28 to 20) but Cotto trumped them in terms of connects (7 to 4). In power shots, Cotto was 16 of 35 and the opponents 12 of 23, meaning that while the foes landed at a higher rate, Cotto exacted more damage. And damage, as they say, is a big part of the game.

Prediction: When Cotto and Gomez stand face to face at ring center, the 5-9 Gomez will be the physically bigger man as he owns two-inch edges in height and reach (69 inches to 67). And don't be surprised if Gomez enjoys a fast start by staying on the move and firing accurate jabs. But Cotto is like a slowly advancing tidal wave; he doesn't look dangerous when he's on the horizon but once he reaches the beach, he wreaks terrifying, unstoppable devastation on all but the very best opponents. While Gomez is good, he is not as great as Mosley, even the 36-year-old version of "Sugar Shane," and thus he will fall victim to a 9th round TKO.