COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by CompuBox

Saturday night's WBC heavyweight title fight between "full" champion Oleg Maskaev and "interim" champion Samuel Peter at Cancun's Plaza de Toros may pale in comparison to the months of emotionally-charged back-room wrangling that preceded it. The war of words between Dennis Rappaport of Team Maskaev and members of Peter's brain trust has been as intense as anything seen between the ropes, and it is hoped that the resulting bad feelings will translate to the combatants once the bell sounds.

The 27-year-old "Nigerian Nightmare" (29-1, 22 KO) is nearly a 4 1/2-1 favorite to dethrone Maskaev (34-5, 26 KO), who turned 39 on March 2, mostly due to his advantages in size, strength, youth and one-punch power. The numbers suggest, however, that not all is everything that it seems. For one thing, though perceived to be the smaller man, the 6-3 Maskaev is actually two-and-a-half inches taller and his 79-inch reach is two inches longer than Peter's, and his 240 pounds in his last outing against Peter Okhello is just 10 pounds lighter than the 250 pounds Peter weighed in his rematch against James Toney. Thus, Maskaev-Peter is not the physical mismatch some suggest it to be.

Also, both men have the reputation of being one-dimensional sluggers, and while they can certainly crack they possess more well-rounded skills than one might think at first glance.

Peter showed both the best and worst of himself in his only loss, a 12 round decision to Wladimir Klitschko in September 2005. Peter dropped "Dr. Steelhammer" three times, twice in the fifth and again in the 10th, but in between he averaged just 37 punches thrown and nine connects. That allowed Klitschko enough time to compose himself and proceed to pile up the points. Klitschko out landed Peter 204-100 overall, including a massive 129-26 advantage in jabs. The 129 jab connects are the most ever amassed against Peter and the 20 first-round jabs were the highest ever collected by a Peter opponent. Conversely, Peter threw just 187 jabs in the entire fight (less than 16 per round), which allowed Klitschko to out-hustle him and capture a well-accepted 114-111 nod on all three scorecards.

Since then, the training team of Pops Anderson and Stacy McKinley have succeeded in making Peter a more complete offensive force, and the results can be seen in his three most recent fights against James Toney and Jameel McCline.

The first adjustment they made was to crank up Peter's output. While he averaged 37 punches per round against Klitschko, that total surged to 57 against Toney and McCline - a dramatic 54 percent increase.

The next change was Peter's distribution of blows; against Klitschko 70 percent of his attempted punches and 74 percent of his connects were power punches but against Toney and McCline, Peter actually averaged more attempted jabs than power punches (28.5 to 28). In the Toney rematch, Peter achieved an almost perfect balance as he went 145 of 380 in jabs (38 percent) and 136 of 314 in power shots (43 percent).

By increasing the activity and diversity of his offense, Peter also limited his opponents' success. Toney and McCline averaged 39 punches per round (18 fewer than Peter) while landing 16 (four fewer than Peter). They also averaged 7.4 fewer jabs (with 1.4 fewer connects) and 9.9 less power punch attempts (and 2.3 fewer connects). In short, Peter found that by doing more, he was taking less.

Peter proved his ability to adjust from fight to fight. In his first match against Toney, "Lights Out" out-landed Peter 239-175 overall and 129-64 in jabs while the Nigerian held a slim 111-110 edge in power shots. The result was a disputed split decision. In the rematch four months later Peter racked up personal records in terms of overall punches thrown (694) and landed (281), outdoing Toney by 252 and 87 respectively. He also racked up a 145-92 bulge in power connects and a 136-102 advantage in jabs. The result? A 118-110, 118-110, 119-108 decision and the most complete performance of his professional career.

The final dividend of Peter's stylistic overhaul was seen in his most recent outing against McCline, which brought the Nigerian full circle from where he was against Klitschko more than two years earlier. Just as Klitschko had risen from three knockdowns to outscore Peter over 12 rounds, Peter got up from a knockdown in the second and two more in the third and allowed his overwhelming activity to pile up points and secure a 115-110, 115-111, 113-112 decision that no one disputed. Peter outlanded McCline 260-144 and his 147 connected power punches (51 more than McCline) were the most he ever landed on an opponent. Though Peter's reputation as a big puncher has declined (five decisions in his last six fights) he is actually a bigger threat to the world's best big men.

When Maskaev was at his zenith from 1997 to 2000, he was perceived to be a power-reliant puncher with a leaky defense and a reachable but sturdy chin. His first bout with Hasim Rahman in November 1999 bore that out as he was out-thrown 478-432 and out-landed 187-177, and through he was down by three, three and seven points he was the one who scored the spectacular eighth round KO that had Rahman almost laying in Jim Lampley's lap.

But the give-and-take nature of his fights eventually took a toll as he suffered three KO losses to Kirk Johnson, Lance Whitaker and Corey Sanders in a five-fight span between October 2000 and March 2002.

His confidence seemingly destroyed beyond repair, Maskaev was considered finished as a viable force in the division. But with the help of new trainer Victor Valle Jr., Maskaev has won his last 12 (nine by KO) over the last five years. Along the way, "The Big O" became one of the oldest men (37 years 5 months) to win a share of the heavyweight title by scoring his second knockout of Rahman in August 2006.

Like Peter, Maskaev achieved his results by building onto the foundation that was already there. For Peter it was punch volume and distribution while for Maskaev it was improved defensive skills and better marksmanship on his power punches.

In the three bouts against David Defiagbon, Rahman and Peter Okhello, Maskaev averaged 53 punches per round (seven above the divisional average) with a 55-45 split between power punches and jabs (23.9 jabs and 29.1 power punches). While Maskaev prospered, his opponents didn't as they averaged 17.6 fewer blows overall, landed 3.2 less jabs and an impressive 14.5 fewer power shots. With Maskaev connecting on 44.4 percent of his power shots and his foes landing at a 38.6 percent rate, he was inflicting more damage while absorbing less - a winning proposition every time.

The effects of Maskaev's altered approach can best be seen in his bouts against Defiagbon, a 10-round split decision win, and his first title defense against Okhello in Moscow in December 2006. Against Defiagbon, Maskaev held a 171-115 edge in overall connects and a 112-46 bulge in power shots that included a 287-140 advantage in attempts. The previously unbeaten Defiagon's only statistical edge was in jabs (69-59), which is to be expected from a man who stood two inches taller and owned a three-inch longer wingspan.

Still, Maskaev held a slight advantage in jab connect percentage (29-28).

Against Okhello, Maskaev was brutally workmanlike and utterly dominant. He had Okhello fighting defensively from the second round onward and scored a knockdown in the 10th with a overhand right-right uppercut combination. He out-landed Okhello in every round, including a 21-1 bulge in the eighth, a 45-5 obliteration in the 10th, a 26-0 shutout in the 11th and a 31-2 blowout in the 12th. Maskaev's 286 connects were 10 more than the 276 punches Okhello threw, a level of dominance seldom seen in a heavyweight title fight.

Besides his 286-49 advantage overall, Maskaev strung together a 89-25 edge in landed jabs and a monstrous 197-24 spread in power connects.

On the heels of the dreadfully tedious Klitschko-Ibragimov partial title unification bout last month, the division is in need of an action injection. Will Maskaev-Peter provide it? The odds say yes, but to a point.

In the heat of battle, one reverts to his natural instincts and because both men own a predatory mindset a fireworks display wouldn't be surprising. However, since both have experienced success with their altered approaches and because each man possesses enough power to gain the other's respect, don't be surprised if they fight with an appropriate amount of caution.

The bout's tipping point will be the fact that Peter fought twice in the 16 months since Maskaev last fought, looking very impressive technically against Toney and showing terrific resiliency against McCline. It is seldom that 39-year-old fighters, even those as well-conditioned as Maskaev is, can overcome the effects of such a long layoff.