COMPUBOX: PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by CompuBox

Roy Jones is a 3-to-1 favorite to beat Felix Trinidad on January 19 at Madison Square Garden in a fight whose intrigue is based more on what was than what is.

A decade ago, Jones was at the height of his powers at light heavyweight as he disposed of Lou Del Valle and Otis Grant while "Tito" was in the fifth year of what would become a sterling six-plus-year run as IBF welterweight champion. At that juncture, both were amazing offensive forces as Jones prospered with his blazing speed and shocking power while Trinidad made his money with blistering combinations. Had Trinidad beaten Bernard Hopkins in September 2001, the next fight would have likely been against Jones, but it was not to be as Hopkins ended up blazing his own trail of greatness by stopping the Puerto Rican icon in the 12th round.

While both have bowed to the ravages of Father Time, the 39-year-old Jones and the 35-year-old Trinidad still possess the fan appeal of their respective primes - and that is why this fight was made. Because Trinidad has only had two fights since May 2002, one can't gauge the quality of the tools now at his disposal, but one can look to his recent past to see both the very best and the very worst of "Tito" to help determine what he must do and what he must avoid.

The last time Trinidad appeared at MSG was on October 2, 2004 against Ricardo Mayorga, and in that bout Trinidad piled up amazing numbers against the wide-open Nicaraguan. Trinidad landed 290 of his 460 punches overall (63 percent) and 218 of his 329 power punches (66 percent). Though not known for his jab, Trinidad still connected on 55 percent of them (72 of 131). As breathtaking as the overall numbers were, the round by round numbers were even more extraordinary. In a sport that considers 50 percent accuracy as excellent, Trinidad's least precise round in the overall figures was 53 percent (round one). He topped 60 percent in five of the rounds overall and six times in terms of power punches, and in the final round alone he was 45 of 54 overall and 39 of 47 in power shots - both of which translate to a jaw-dropping 83 percent.

While Trinidad teed off, Mayorga struggled. He was 141 of 564 overall (25 percent) and 128 of 391 (33 percent) in power punches, with his overall peak being 36 percent in round three (27 of 75) - a round that also saw him land 25 of 43 of his power punches (58 percent).

His jab was ineffective as he connected on just 13 of 173 (8 percent). Granted, Jones will not be the available target that Mayorga was, but this fight shows just what Trinidad once was capable of producing.

The worst of Trinidad came in his next fight against Ronald "Winky" Wright on May 14, 2005 in Las Vegas. As lopsided as the Mayorga bout was in Trinidad's favor, that's how dominant Wright was against "Tito," and Wright's success was based entirely on his thudding right jab. While Wright landed 185 of his 588 jabs (31 percent), the most important strategic consequence was that his jabs completely shut down Trinidad's offense. Trinidad connected on just 58 (5 landed punches per round) of his 557 punches (10 percent) overall and just 43 of his 230 power punches (19 percent). He never reached double-digit connects in any category while Wright did so in all but the feeling-out first round. Wright's statistical domination of Trinidad was more impressive than Floyd Mayweather's over Diego Corrales, who landed 6 punches per round and Lewis over Tyson, who also landed 6 punches per round. Jones doesn't rely on his jab, but he owns a good one, so he would be well advised to break it out against the PuertoRican legend.

Jones could also use a few plays out of Hopkins' play book. When they fought at MSG in 2001, Hopkins neutralized Trinidad's jab (32 of 116, 28 percent) and limited his overall punch output (129 of 329, 27 punches per round) by using his size and speed to methodically dish out punishment. After a feeling-out first round Hopkins out-threw and out-landed Trinidad in every round thereafter with the margins growing throughout. Hopkins connected on 260 of his 653 blows (40 percent) and his distribution between jabs (95 of 275, 35 percent) and power punches (165 of 378, 44 percent) kept Trinidad guessing.

While it is true that Jones has several strategic options at his disposal against Trinidad, the same can be said for "Tito," and one only needs to look at Jones' fights against Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson to find out what they are. The common denominator in those fights was the consistent pressure both men employed. In Tarver-Jones III in October 2005, "The Magic Man" out-threw Jones 620-320 overall (25 punches per round more) and out-landed him 158-85.

While Tarver enjoyed a small edge in power punches (107-74), he kept Jones busy defending against the jab as he threw 279 of them (23 per round) while keeping Jones to just under 10 attempts per round (11 of 113, 10 percent).

Johnson's aggression was even more pronounced as he bull-rushed Jones to the ropes and often whacked away with impunity while using his shoulders and arms to keep him where he was. "The Road Warrior" set the terms of battle early as he out-threw Jones 84-31 in the first round, and of Johnson's 22 connects that round 20 of them were power shots. While Jones enjoyed a small edge in round two (6-5 in overall connects) and had his best round in the third (a 23-12 connect advantage), Johnson swept rounds four through eight before knocking Jones unconscious in the ninth.

In his two post-Johnson outings against Prince Badi Ajamu and Anthony Hanshaw, Jones has shown flashes of the form that carried him to four divisional championships and a lengthy stay at the top of the pound-for-pound rankings. After Ajamu won the first round by pushing Jones to the ropes and swarming him, Jones adjusted to the tactics and proceeded to pot shot him throughout the rest of the fight. At points, Ajamu appeared extremely frustrated and on the verge of quitting but he stuck it out and lost a wide points decision, which was made even wider when Ajamu lost two points in the seventh and another in the eighth for low blows. Based on these two fights, part of the Trinidad template should consist of steady aggression and a high punch output to keep Jones focused on defense and not allowing him the time to conjure up funky moves and execute his unorthodox offense.

The numbers in this fight don't reflect just how dominant Jones was. Jones was 164 of 439 overall (37 percent) while Ajamu was 141 of 499 (28 percent) and the pair was nearly even in power punch production (Jones was 125 of 304 - 41 percent - while Ajamu was 123 of 310 for 40 percent). While the jab didn't play a big role in the strategic realm, Jones did out-land Ajamu 39-18 despite throwing 54 fewer. Jones also did more with less; he averaged 37 punches per round as opposed to the average light heavyweight output of 54, but in the process he limited his opponent's offense. Trinidad must not allow himself to be lulled into fighting at Jones' pace; he must force Jones to fight harder and longer than he wishes.

In terms of tactics, Trinidad could learn from Jones' last outing against Anthony Hanshaw on July 14, 2007. Though Jones won a decision and looked good doing it, the previously unbeaten Hanshaw succeeded in dictating the pace and establishing numerical dominance. Hanshaw more than doubled Jones' output (867-407) and out-landed him overall (281-177), in power punches (237-153) and in jabs (44-24). Those 281 total punches landed by Hanshaw were the most by a Jones opponent in 29 of his fights tracked by CompuBox. Jones won the fight because he was more accurate (43 percent to 32 percent overall, 47-40 in power punches and 30-16 in jabs) and because his connects produced more spectacular results. A short right to the jaw and a monstrous hook to the body hurt Hanshaw in the ninth and a scintillating seven-punch burst produced a knockdown in the 11th. But Jones didn't have the energy to finish off the younger man as he only threw two punches in the round's final 45 seconds.

So who will win on January 19? When analyzing a fight with so many unknowns, one must make his best guess based on the little that is known.

First, both men are 5-11 and Jones' 74-inch reach is one-and-a-half inches longer, so those attributes are a wash.

Second, the 170-pound weight limit is a full 10 pounds higher than any weight Trinidad has fought while Jones hasn't fought below 170 since his second round destruction of Brian Brannon in October 1996. However, Jones did fight at 171 against Reggie Johnson in June 1999 and scored a dominant decision, so from that we know that at least at one time he could compete effectively at that light weight. In any case, Jones enters the ring as the naturally bigger, stronger man and at their respective bests Jones also had superior hand and foot speed.

Third, Jones has been more active. Since May 2002, Trinidad has fought twice while Jones has fought eight times, and while Jones is coming off a pair of wins Trinidad is coming into the ring saddled by 32 months of inactivity and off his most lopsided defeat as a pro. So not only has Jones been more active, he enters the ring with more reason to feel good about his recent form.

Fourth, Trinidad's calling card was his power and quick-fisted combinations, but how much effect will they have on a man accustomed to taking the blows of far bigger men?

Granted, Jones was resoundingly knocked out by Tarver and Johnson but they were big, physical light heavyweights and the odds are that Trinidad won't be able to carry his power from middleweight to an even heavier realm.

In short, all of the trends point toward Jones - and not by a little. If Jones wants to fight Joe Calzaghe, he must produce a eye-catching knockout to convince the public and the press that he still has what it takes to take what "The Extraordinary Joe" has - a firm spot in the pound-for-pound rankings and relevance in today's boxing scene. This fight with Trinidad has all the ingredients for a Jones demolition, and if he is of that mindset he is capable of producing it. Because Jones is into "having fun" in the ring, he will take some time to entertain the fans before putting Trinidad away via eighth round TKO.