BERT SUGAR PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

July 19, 2007 - by Bert Sugar with Steve Small

STRENGTHS OF BOTH FIGHTERS

BERNARD HOPKINS

- Hopkins, who has fought all but two of his fights at 160, will now be fighting at the contracted weight of 170 and won't have to pace himself to conserve energy--as he did in his two fights with Jermain Taylor--but can box three minutes of every round, as he did against Antonio Tarver, without worrying about tiring himself out.

- Hopkins is a bigger, stronger man and can use that strength to outmuscle Wright on the inside.

- Bernard has fought 10 left-handers, knocking out 6 of them, and can use the same right-hand lead, as he did in his fight against Tarver, to move inside and establish shop in his territory, the inside, rather than staying at long range, which is Winky's territory.

WINKY WRIGHT

- Has a tight, almost impregnable defense. Trying to break through Wright's defense is somewhat like trying to open up a clam with a butter knife.

- A turnaround fighter, Wright uses his left jab, one of the best in the business, to keep his opponent at long range.

- Wright can outwork Hopkins, especially from the outside.

WEAKNESSES OF BOTH FIGHTERS

HOPKINS

- At 42, Bernard is not as fast as he once was--but then again who is? And may be a bit slower in his moves to get inside.

- For a guy so tall, Bernard cannot fight well on the outside. And, if he stays there, won't be able to land through Winky's defense.

- Hopkins must move inside to do that voodoo he does so well, surgically breaking down Wright as he has so many of his opponents. But to do so he must get through Wink's talented jab an almost-impossible-to-penetrate defense, which may be a battle within the battle.

WRIGHT

- A slap-and-jab fighter, Wright offers little to hurt Hopkins.

- Has never fought at this weight, 170, and is now fighting a bigger, stronger opponent in Hopkins.

- Winky will find that, unlike Felix Trinidad, Bernard keeps his hands up and is not as easy to hit as Trinidad was.

- Has become more aggressive of late, altering his defense-first style in the last two fights--against Taylor and Quartey. But in his willingness to take punishment in order to dish out some of his own, he may make himself vulnerable to Hopkins, especially on the inside.

WHAT EACH MUST DO TO WIN

HOPKINS

- It all depends on which Bernard Hopkins shows up, the Bernard Hopkins of the two Taylor fights or the Bernard Hopkins of the Tarver fight.

- To win, Bernard must take the fight away from Winky by attacking and attacking some more, getting inside and making Winky fight his fight.

- Bernard cannot afford to stay outside and let Winky pile up punches and points, nor give away rounds, as he did against Taylor, trying to conserve energy for the late-round run.

WRIGHT

- Wright, who has said he intends "to dominate," must use his jab to keep Hopkins at the end of it and on the outside where it's his fight.

- Winky must continually outwork Hopkins, trying to tire out his 42-year-old legs which may betray him in the latter rounds.

- If forced to fight on the inside, which is Hopkins' laboratory of destruction, Winky must abandon his defense-first mode of fighting and be prepared, as per his promise, "to fight." Anything less will cede the inside--and maybe the fight--to Hopkins.