COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by Bob Canobbio/CompuBox

Gattti, 40-8, 31 KOs, loser of two of his last three fights, a 9-5 favorite over Contender hero Gomez, 16-3-2, 7 KOs. Atlantic City's Boardwalk Hall, site of Gatti's last eight fights, again will host.

Gatti was hammered into submission last July (the 356-day layoff for this fight is the longest layoff his career) by then defending welterweight champ Carlos Baldomir, who landed 51% of his power shots, outlanding Gatti 226-116 in that department. Gatti landed 51% of his power shots as well, but was never able to dent the armor of the granite-chinned Baldomir, whose relentless pressure (62 punches thrown per round) broke Gatti down. Gatti averaged just 49 total punches thrown per round and landed just 45 jabs all night (averaging 24 thrown per round) vs. Baldomir, who succeeded in turning this one into a street fight. What kind of night was it for Gatti?- he had his best round in the fifth- landing 21 of 38 power shots (55%), Baldomir responded by landing 51 of 79 (65%) power punches of his own. Baldomir, who had just 12 KOs in his previous 57 fights, closed the show by landing 40 of 80 powers shots in round nine.

Gatti got back in the saddle seven months after his shellacking by Mayweather- at welterweight, and stopped the game and absorbent Thomas Damgaard (37-0) in the 11th round. Gatti landed 328 of his 78 punches per round, landing 38%. The light-hitting Damgaard did some connecting of his own, landing 320 of his 908 total punches (35%). Gatti had a 275-196 edge in power connects, landing 56% to 49% for Damgaard, who also threw 505 jabs.

Gatti was no match for pound for pound king Mayweather in June of '05. Defending his version of the 140-lb title as a 3 1/2-1 'dog, Gatti was outlanded 168-41. He didn't win ten seconds of any of the six rounds the fight lasted. He landed 10 power punches all night! How bad was it? He landed 42 power shots in the 9th round alone in the first Mickey Ward fight. Mayweather landed 63% of his power shots, many landing flush on Gatti's head and body. Floyd closed the show by landing 34 of 42 (81%) of his power punches in the sixth, prompting Gatti's trainer Buddy McGirt to mercifully stop the one-sided drubbing in their corner.

Prior to Mayweather, Gatti iced (KO 5) former 130-lb champ James Leija with a right hand, neautralizing Leija with 38 jabs thrown per round. Six months earlier, a single well-place body shot put former lightweight champ Leonard Dorin down for the count in round two. In January of '04, Gatti outboxed the light-hitting Gianluca Branco over twelve rounds, averaging 46 jabs thrown per round among his 70 total punches thrown per round.

Gatti boxed his way to victories over Mickey Ward in their rematch and rubber match. In their third meeting he averaged 85 punches per round (38 jabs per round) and more importantly kept out of harms way, as Ward landed just 20% of his total punches in the third fight and 29% in their rematch.

In their first fight, 2002's Fight of the Year, Ward landed 49% of his total punches and 55% of his power shots. That's when Gatti made a career-saving decision. He totally subscribed to McGirt's theory of box, box, box. After averaging just 25 jabs per round in the first fight, Gatti got off 36 jabs per round in the rematch and 38 per round in the rubber match- both fights dominated by Arturo, who landed 52% of his power shots in II & III.

Blinded by the light, Ward landed just 27% of his power shots in their third fight and 32% in the rematch. That's a 29% dropoff in connect percentage from the first to the third fight by Ward. Ward still had enough left in the tank to drop Gatti for a flash late in round six. Gatti recovered to land a career-high 70 of 126 total punches (56%) in the 7th. He outlanded Ward 180-60 over the final four rounds of what proved to be Mickey's last fight. Ward will train Gatti for the Gomez fight.

Gomez made a name for himself by defeating the heavily-favored and previously undefeated Peter Manfredo (W 5) in the first round of season one of The Contender. He then defeated Ahmed Kaddour in the next round before losing a rematch with Manfredo in the semi-finals. All his season one Contender fights were fought at middleweight and were heavily edited, preventing an accurate punch count from CompuBox. He's since dropped down to jr. middle/welterweight and is 4-0-1 in his last five fights. The draw came vs. the crude Jesse Feliciano, in a fight many at ringside felt Gomez won. Feliciano was coming off a ko win over former champ Vince Phillips and rallied to ko hot prospect Delvin Rodriguez following the Gomez draw.

In his last outing, fighting at a more controlled pace, Gomez landed 47% of his 64 total punches thrown per round enroute to a 7th round ko over Martin Concepcion, 11-4. The loss was Concepcion's fourth strait. Gomez also landed a whopping 51% of his 35 jabs thrown per round. Concepcion landed just 18% of his total punches.

Gomez averaged 88 punches thrown per round, landing 34% in his fights vs. Luciano Perez 10/15/05 KO 4); Jose Ojeda (9/13/03 W 6) and Feliciano (2/28/03 L 6). He also averaged 38 jabs thrown per round. Perez, Ojeda and Feliciano landed just 21% of their total punches.

Gomez fought his pro debut at 144 lbs. Gatti weighed 127 for his pro debut. He's been in tough his entire career. He lost a four round decision to Ishe Smith in his second pro fight (Smith's third pro fight) and decisioned the then 12-1-1 Dewey Welliver in his sixth pro fight.

Gomez, listed at 5'9” is taller than Gatti and is by far the fresher fighter. He's fought just 101 professional rounds and has never been past the eighth round. In fact, he's the least experienced fighter Gatti's faced in terms of rounds fought since Terronn Millett, who logged just 118 pro rounds before getting iced by Arturo in round four. Will the lack of rounds fought be a plus or minus for Gomez ? Following his Contender experience, he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the crazed pro-Gatti Boardwalk Hall crowd.

On paper, this is a huge step up in class for Gomez. Or is it? How much does Gatti have left in the tank? He was hit with 435 punches in 15 rounds (30 per round) in his ko losses to Mayweather and Baldomir. He seemed to lose his will to fight on after the fifth round of the Baldomir fight, averaging just 44 total punches thrown per round the rest of the fight. As stated earlier, he landed just 45 jabs all night vs. Baldomir. Not the same Gatti that still holds the CompuBox junior lightweight record of 273 jabs landed (23 per round) in his decision win over Tracy Patterson on 12/15/95 (he threw 45 per round). He averaged 37 thrown in decision wins over Mickey Ward and threw 46 per round in his 12-round win over Gianluca Branco.

Will Gatti, now 35, in his 16th year as a pro, use his jab to set up his power shots, or will he look to brawl with Gomez in an attempt to get the fight over as quickly as possible? Losing the jab-happy, boxing first Buddy McGirt as his trainer in favor of the brawler-by-nature Mickey Ward can't be a plus for Arturo, especially against a blood and guts warrior like Gomez, who sees his showdown with Gatti on the big stage as a ticket to bigger and more lucrative fights.

Gomez needs to establish his jab (remember he avg'd 36 thrown per round in 4 of his fights tracked by CompuBox) and not get into a fire fight with Gatti early. He says Gatti doesn't like it to the body (who does?) and will plan his attack accordingly.

If Gomez can take Gatti's best shots early-mid fight, he'll eventually wear Arturo down enroute to a late round stoppage- and it won't be pretty.

ANTONIO MARGARITO vs. PAUL WILLIAMS

'Maguina de Gulpes'- 'The Punching Machine' Margarito, 34-4-0, 24 KOs, making the eighth defense of his welterweight title, a 6-5 favorite over another punching machine, southpaw Paul 'The Punisher' Williams, 32-0, 24 KOs, in his first title fight.

Margarito set the all-time (for all weight classes) CompuBox record for most total punches thrown in a fight, 1,675 (140 per round), in his decision win over Joshua Clottey in December. He broke Zack Padilla's thirteen year old record of 1,596 total punches thrown, in his decision win over Ray Oliveira in December of '93. Tony also threw a welterweight record 197 punches in round five of the Clottey fight, 15 more than he threw in round eleven. He threw 146 or more punches in seven of twelve rounds. All that leather thrown with an injured wrist that was damaged from the fifth round on. He didn't just throw vs. Clottey, he landed as well- 337 total punches, to 207 for Clottey, who landed 47% of his power shots. Clottey actually outlanded Margarito in power shots in rounds two thru four before injuring his left hand in that fourth round. The counter-punching Clottey averaged just 38 total punches thrown per round for the fight and just 28 per round over the last four rounds. Not the formula to defeat the whirlwind Margarito- unless you possess one punch ko power.

Tony didn't need to set any CompuBox punching records in his biggest win to date- a fifth round ko of the previously undefeated and inexperienced Kermit Cintron, in April of '05. After a tentative first round (almost comatose-like for Margarito, as he threw just 45 total punches to 58 for Cintron), Margarito got his groove on in round two, throwing 87 total punches, landing just 14%. Enough to rattle Cintron, who landed 13 of 72 total punches. Cintron was cut over the right eye in the third, down twice each in rounds four and five, before the end came at 2:12 of the fifth. Statistically not an impressive performance by Margarito, but he was better than Cintron, who landed just 42 of 272 (15%) total punches to 61 of 295 (21%) for Margarito, who had a 38-19 edge in power connects over the last three rounds.

In February of '05, after a slow start (at least for Margarito-only 71 punches thrown per round), the champion cranked up his attack, averaging 136 punches thrown per round over the last six rounds, leaving the top of the gutty Sebastian Lujan's left ear separated from his head. When the smoke cleared, Margarito had fired off 1157 total punches, #5 all-time for welterweight and landed 399-in just 10 rounds!!! He averaged 116 punches per round for the fight-double the welterweight average. He also landed half his power shots (298 of 609), including 54% over the last six rounds. It wasn't like Lujan wasn't trying, he averaged 75 punches per round and actually outlanded Margarito in the first two rounds.

In September of '04, on the undercard of Cotto-Pinto, Margarito traveled to Puerto Rico, moved up to 154-lbs and challenged Daniel Santos in a rematch of their one round no contest from July of '01. Santos weighed 170 lbs by fight time and was ahead on two of the three scorecards after 10 rounds when Margarito could not continue due to a cut eye from a headbutt-as was the case in their first fight. Margarito was rocked early in the fight, then recovered to stagger the hometown favorite Santos in the fifth. Fighting a bigger man, Margarito averaged just 58 punches per round but had a 158-126 edge in total connects. The scorecards read: 86-85 Margy; 87-84 & 86-85 Santos.

Margarito won the vacant welterweight title he currently holds in March of '02 with a 10th round stoppage of Antonio Diaz, whose best work was done at 140 lbs. He threw 1197 punches vs. Diaz-#3 all-time for welterweights-again, in just 10 rounds!!! That's an average of 120 punches thrown per round and as was the case vs. Lujan, got stronger as the fight went on. He averaged 138 per round in rounds seven thru nine, landing an average of 42 per round during that stretch.

Last November, on the undercard of Mayweather W 12 Baldomir, Williams could have been arrested for assault after his destruction of late sub Santos Pakau (27-3-1 overall and 2-5 (ko'd 4x) in his last 7 fights). Williams landed 311 of 686 total punches in less than six rounds. That's an average of 55 punches landed (3x the welter. avg.) and 121 punches thrown per round. Williams topped out at 154 total punches thrown in round five, # 7 all time for welterweights and 81 landed, #2 all time for welterweights. Williams' 73 power connects (6x welter. avg.) in round five was #2 all time for welterweights and #7 on the all-time power connects in a round list.

Three months earlier, Williams overpowered former 140-lb champ Sharmba Mitchell, dropping him four times in four rounds (once in 3rd & 3x in 4th). Williams avg'd 97 total punches in opening two rounds, then 68 per round in three and four. Williams had a 72-51 edge in total connects (landing 22% overall) and a 62-38 edge in power connects, landing 30%. Mitchell, who five months earlier decisioned the crude Jose Luis Cruz (31-1-2), landed 37% of his power shots on Williams, with no effect. Willliams threw 204 power shots in four rounds.

In May of '06, Williams averaged 107 total punches thrown per (1,036 total punches) landing 27%, before stopping the previously undefeated Walter Matthysse, who challenges Kermit Cintron in the co-main event to Gatti-Gomez. Williams threw 555 jabs in less than ten rounds (57 per round), landing just 16%. Matthysse avg'd 73 punches thrown per round in the opening six minutes- landing 22 power shots in round two (34%) to 17 for Williams. Williams' relentless attack slowed Matthysse to just 40 total punches thrown per round over the next eight rounds. Mathysse landed just 19% overall and just 21% of his power shots. Williams outlanded Matthysse 52-8 in power shots over last two rounds.

Margarito, 29, has been a pro for 13 1/2 years, yet he's only fought 39 fights and 205 total rounds- unlike many other Mexican fighter's who often fight 50 fights before their 25th birthday. He was put in tough early in his career though. He lost a decision to the crafty Larry Dixon in his 10th pro fights (at age 18) and was decisioned by perennial contender Rodney Jones in his 12th pro fight. In fact, three of his four losses occurred before his 19th birthday. He's 25-1, with 1 no contest since and is 8-1 with 4 KOs in championship fights.

Williams, 25, has been a pro seven years, but has fought just 121 pro rounds, giving Margarito a huge edge in experience and caliber of opposition. There's no resason to believe either fighter's not going to do what he does best- and that's throw punches in bunches. Margarito averaged 116 thrown per round vs. Cintron, Clottey and Lujan- landing 26% overall and 39% of his power shots. Williams avg'd 103 thrown per round vs. Matthysse, Mitchell & Pakau, landing 32% overall and 42% of his power shots- bolstered by the punching bag Pakau. Those better quality opponents landed 36% of their power shots vs. Margarito, while Williams' overmatched foes landed 22% of their non-jabs.

This one's going down to the wire, with Margarito winning a close, unanimous decision in a fight that could break the CompuBox all-time record of 3,020 combined total punches thrown by both fighters in a fight. That record is held by Zack Padilla (1,596 total punches) W 12 Ray Oliveira (1,424 total punches). The record for combined total punches thrown in a round is 463. Ray Oliveira (226) W 12 Vince Phillips (237) hold that mark. Phillips holds the record for most punches thrown in a round, 237, by one fighter, vs. Oliveira, amazingly in the 12th round of that fight.