COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by Bob Canobbio

Taylor, 26-0-1, 17 KO's, making the fourth defense of his middleweight title, nearly a 7-1 favorite over former welterweight and junior middleweight champ Spinks, 36-3, 11 KO's. Contender champ Sergio Mora was to be Taylor's original opponent until catching a case of cold feet.

After getting outlanded in his three previous victories (twice vs. Hopkins & vs. Winky), Taylor went back to doing what he does best last December, beating up on junior middleweights. He landed 41% of his 50 punches per round enroute to a lackluster 12-round decision win over Kassim Ouma, a former 154-lb title holder.

Taylor came out blazing, landing 27 of 74 total punches in round one, including 22 of 56 power shots- the most power punches (non-jabs) thrown in a round by Taylor in 20 of his fights tracked by Compubox. The balsy Ouma answered by landing 16 of 55 total punches, including 14 of 46 power shots, never hurting Taylor, but letting him know this "little man" came to fight.

Taylor landed 22 of 56 total punches in round two, (to 17 of 53 for Ouma), then averaged just 47 total punches thrown per round the rest of the fight- never throwing more than 57 in any round after the first. Ouma, who normally averages 100-plus punches per round vs. junior middleweights, had to respect Taylor's punching power and managed to get off 58 punches per round for the fight, landing 25%. After getting out thrown in rounds one and two, Ouma threw more than Taylor in nine of ten rounds, with one round even. Taylor spent a good portion of the later rounds fighting in retreat but still had a 244-177 edge in total punches landed when the final bell tolled.

When last seen in Memphis, Taylor barely escaped with his middleweight belts after drawing with another former 154-lb. champion, Winky Wright, a southpaw like Spinks. Wright had a 226-163 edge in total connects, landing 35% to Taylor 23%. Taylor averaged 59 punches thrown per round vs. Winky, who landed 40% of his power shots. As expected, Winky had a 103-41 edge in jab connects. Taylor did average 26 jabs thrown per round vs. Winky and only 15 per round vs. Ouma. Power shots saw Taylor landing 122 of 395 (31%), to 123 of 308 for Winky. Taylor landed the harder shots all night and was busier overall. Those 226 connects by Wright were the most landed vs. Taylor in 20 of his fights tracked by CompuBox.

Taylor won the last round on 2 cards to earn the draw. Wright, after averaging 56 punches thrown per round in the previous eleven rounds, threw just 32 in the 12th. Had Wright won the round, he would have won the title by majority decision. The cards read: 115-113 T; 115-113 W; 114-114.

Taylor was also narrowly outlanded in total punches by Bernard Hopkins in both their fights. As was the case in their first meeting in July of '05, their 12/3/05 rematch was more about what Hopkins didn't do than what Taylor did do. B Hop averaged just 25 punches thrown per round over the first six frames and found himself down 6-0 on one card and 5-1 on the other two cards.

Let's give Taylor some credit though. There had to be a reason why Bernard was reluctant to throw. The reason was Taylor's power and overall size- and some smarts. Taylor conserved, averaging just 29 punches thrown per round over the first six rounds, nine less per round than in the first fight when he faded down the stretch. He was also much more efficient with is bread and butter punch, the jab. He landed nearly twice as many (64, 36 in first fight) in the rematch, while throwing 55 less. He was less available for the counterpunches of Hopkins.

Taylor had enough left in the tank to get off 44 total punches in the pivotal 11th round- his high total for the fight. He won the round on all three cards to secure a 115-113 decision on all cards. He also threw 40 punches in the final round, enough to hold off Hopkins, who threw 54 total punches his high total for the fight. Taylor averaged just 33 punches thrown in rounds eleven and twelve of the first fight and was in serious trouble throughout the final three minutes.

Overall, Taylor was busier, throwing 391 total punches to 371 for Hopkins, who had a 130-124 edge in total connects. Taylor had a 64-29 advantage in jabs landed, hitting on 31% after landing just 14% in the first fight.

In their first meeting, Taylor ended Hopkins' ten-year-plus reign as middleweight champ with a split decision win. Hopkins started even slower than in the first fight, 19 punches thrown per round over the first eight rounds and Taylor was busier, throwing 38 per round. As a result, Taylor won seven of the first eight rounds on one card and six of eight on another. The third judge had the fight even thru eight.

As Taylor faded, Hopkins stepped on the gas, outlanding Taylor 56-23 in total punches over the last four rounds. Despite outlanding Taylor 12-5 in total punches in round twelve, judge Duane Ford gave the round to Jermain, depriving Hopkins of a title-saving draw.

Overall, Taylor went 86 of 453 (19%) to 96 of just 326 (29%) for Hopkins, who had a 78-50 edge in power connects. Taylor fought throughout the fight with a lacerated scalp that reportedly required 15 stitches.

Spinks, whose father Leon upset Muhammad Ali on 2/15/78 to win the heavyweight title in just his 8th pro fight, fought his first professional fight on 11/21/97 weighing 139 lbs. (Taylor weighed 158 lbs for his pro debut).

Spinks won a version of the welterweight title on 3/22/03, in a rematch with defending champ, Italy's Michele Piccirillo. Nine months earlier, Spinks was on the short end of a controversial decision. Both fights were on the paisan's home turf.

On 12/13/03, Spinks held off the slinglin Ricardo Mayorga and added the Nicaraguan's belts to his welterweight collection. Spinks landed 41% of his 46 total punches. He also landed 38% of his 19 jabs per round and limited Mayorga to an overall connect pct. of 30%. Mayorga, a 5-1 favorite who was scheduled to fight Shane Mosley after Spinks, did land 39% of his power punches but was never able to hurt Spinks. Spinks' movement limited Mayorga to just 44 punches thrown per round.

Spinks next successfully defended his three welterweight belts by outworking Zab Judah. (4/10/04) He landed 18% of his 62 punches thrown per round, while Judah got off just 47 per frame. Zabness landed 42% of his power shots, but hit on just 6 non-jabs per round. Zab was down for a flash in round eleven. He rebounded to drop and nearly ko Spinks late in the last round.

Following his one-sided successful defense vs. former 140-lb champ Miguel A. Gonzalez, Spinks returned home to St. Louis, where a crowd of over 20,000 paid to see his rematch with Zab Judah on 2/5/05. The motivated Judah was ahead 78-74, 79-73 & 77-75 thru eight rounds before icing Spinks in the ninth. Spinks, who foolishly traded with Judah late in round eight, landed just 20% of his 47 punches per round, while Judah landed 33% of his power shots, averaging 51 total punches thrown per round.

Spinks layed off 17 months, then returned to St. Louis a junior middleweight and challenged Roman Karmazin, who upset Kassim Ouma one year earlier. Spinks boxed his way to a majority decision win, landing 27% of his 53 punches per round. He also avg'd a whopping 40 jabs per round, landing 23%. Karmazin, who avg'd 66 punches thrown per round in his win over Ouma, got off just 48 per round vs. Spinks, landing 29%. Karmazin landed just 27% of his power shots after landing 38% vs. Ouma.

Taylor, with a possible showdown with 168-lb. champ Joe Calzaghe on the horizon, would love nothing more than to chase Spinks out of ring in Memphis. He's no stranger to southpaws, that's for sure (Ouma & Wright in his last two fights- then maybe Calzaghe). He'll outweigh Spinks, who has a suspect chin, by at least 15 lbs. Spinks, who will have his share of fans making their way from St. Louis, will have to be busier than 50-55 punches thrown per round to have any chance of winning a decision. He's surely not going to slug with Taylor. He's got no power and landed an average of just 5 power punches per round in his two fights with Judah and his win over Karmazin. The welterweight avg. is 13 power shots landed per round. The question is, will Spinks, once he tastes Taylor's power, stink it up and be content just going the distance in defeat? It's up to Taylor to step up his game and find a way to cut off the ring stop Spinks. Not likely, Taylor by unanimous decision.