12 ROUNDS WITH MAX KELLERMAN

So -- who's going to win? Oscar or Floyd? Everybody's got an opinion. Some give Floyd an edge on youth and speed. Others give the edge to Oscar because he's a naturally bigger fighter who has faced better competition. Rather than just add another opinion to the mix, Max Kellerman, a commentator on HBO's "Boxing After Dark" series, pounds out 12 rounds on key criteria to pick the winner.

Okay, Max -- LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!

Ding ding!

by Nat Gottlieb

ROUND 1 [Size]

Obviously Oscar is the bigger man. He's a little taller (5'-11 to 5'-8 3/4 ) and broader in the chest and shoulders. He started the game at the same weight class as Floyd (lightweight), but he's been fighting longer at higher weight (11 years to 3). Oscar has more reach on his jab, but it is not as much as people think.

10-9 -- De La Hoya

ROUND 2 [Strength]

Oscar has a slight advantage here, but Floyd is a strong fighter. Oscar has been able to carry his physique to middleweight. He was strong enough to beat Felix Sturm (at middleweight), although a lot of people think he lost that fight. But Oscar isn't that strong where he could score a one punch knock down.

10-9 -- De La Hoya

ROUND 3 [Speed]

Floyd is definitely the faster boxer, but it is not a 10-8 round. Oscar has always had underrated hand speed. He kept up pretty well with Shane Mosley, who helped Oscar prepare for this fight. If you can get a Shane Mosley as a sparring partner, that's as good as it gets. It's like Apollo Creed training Rocky. Oscar will be as prepared as he can be for Floyd's speed because of Shane.

10-9 -- Mayweather

Round 4 [Defense]

Oscar had good defense, Floyd has great defense. Floyd is trying to become the third man in a triumvirate with Willie Pep and Pernell Whitaker as the very greatest pure boxers of all time. Floyd is very hard to hit. And it is even harder to hit him with a combo.

10-9 -- Mayweather

ROUND 5 [Experience]

In the last 25 years, Oscar has been in more big fights than almost anybody else. And Oscar was right at one of the press conferences when he said Floyd was showing a lot of nervous energy and melting down, while he remained calm because he has been there so many times. But sometimes, nervous energy can work for you. Ali was as nervous as can be before he fought Liston the first time, but he used that energy to beat Liston. Just because Floyd shows nerves now it is not necessarily a disadvantage. Remember, Floyd went to the Olympics and won a bronze medal. He won his first belt at age 21. He's fought a ton of pretty good fights, but so far he hasn't fought a super fight like this. Gatti and Corrales were the closest he came to a super fight, and maybe the rematch with Castillo. Judah may fit in there too. But the thing about Floyd is he tends to really excel in big fights.

10-9 -- De La Hoya

ROUND 6 [Ability to take a Punch]

This one is very difficult to decide. Neither guy has ever been hit on the chin and dropped where you thought he was ready to go. Partly, it's because they both have such good defense. Bernard (Hopkins) was the only one to really drop Oscar to the point where he was hurt (KO-9), and it was with a big body shot. But Bernard is a very strong fighter and one of the best middleweights of all time. Defense makes you have a better chin. Emanuel Burton (now Augustus) hit Floyd with some pretty good shots (TKO-9, 2000). So did Castillo in their first fight (UD, 2002).

10-10 -- EVEN

ROUND 7 [Fighting Inside]

Obviously your first inclination is to say Oscar. His left hand would be a better weapon inside. That being said, Floyd throws sharper punches, and has better hand speed, so he might beat Oscar to the punch inside. When Floyd fought inside with Augustus and Castillo -- who is a tremendous inside fighter -- Floyd had to tie them up. But Floyd has also shown a great ability at shutting down the other guy's game, as he did with Gatti. All things said, I guess I would give it:

10-9 -- De La Hoya

ROUND 8 [Bodywork]

I have seen more instances in which De La Hoya worked the body over his career than Floyd. I can't say I have seen a Floyd fight where I said, ‘Wow, he was devastating at breaking that guy down with the body.'

10-9 -- De LaHoya

ROUND 9 [Jab]

Oscar has a very good jab. Floyd also has a good jab, although he doesn't use it a lot. Oscar's jab is a difficult to anticipate, trip-hammer jab. Zab (Judah) gave Floyd a lot of problems early in their fight working off his jab (2006).

10-9 -- De La Hoya

ROUND 10 [Counterpunching]

Floyd would be it. He has quicker hands and part of his game plan is built around counterpunching. There are very few fighters who are pure counter punchers. Most do something to make their opponent lead so they can counter. Floyd is excellent at doing that. That's one reason he doesn't need to use his jab so much. He makes the other guy use his.

10-9 -- Mayweather

ROUND 11 [Ring Generalship]

People define ring generalship in different ways. For me, it means the guy who gives a sense to the other fighter that he is controlling the fight, that he is making the guy do what he wants him to do. Both Oscar and Floyd are really good at this. I'd give the edge to Floyd, although earlier in his career, Oscar had this special quality where he could take over fights in the later rounds, and win rounds in the final 10 seconds. But he wasn't able to do that with Trinidad or Mosley. Against elite fighters like that he came up short in ring generalship.

10-9 -- Mayweather

ROUND 12 [Heart]

This has to be an even round. Floyd has never been in a position, except maybe with Castillo, where he needed to rally to win. Neither guy has ever been in a position where they had to fold up, with the exception of once for Oscar with Hopkins.

10-10 -- EVEN

WINNER:

De La Hoya 116-114

FOOTNOTE:

To prove how hard this fight is to pick, when Kellerman took off his judge's robe and slipped into his regular analyst attire, he sounded like he had a slightly different opinion:

MAX: If Oscar tries to press Floyd, he will get knocked out. Castillo gave Floyd a tough fight by being aggressive, but he is a naturally aggressive fighter. That's just not Oscar's style. I don't see how Oscar can outbox Floyd. However, we have seen instances where the most popular fighter with the most powerful promoter has been able to sway the opinion of judges, and Oscar is the most popular fighter in the game -- and a very powerful promoter (Golden Boy Promotions). If Oscar can win four rounds, his popularity and his image as a powerful promoter might be enough to win a close decision. The best chance Oscar has to beat Floyd is to box with him, not pressure him, win as many rounds as he can and hope for the best. Remember, Floyd's greatest performances have been against really aggressive fighters, like Corrales, Castillo and Gatti.

For Floyd, the way he can lose this fight is if he feels he has so much of an advantage over Oscar than he can go toe-to-toe with him. If Floyd does that, he loses. And most of all, Floyd cannot afford to lose his cool.

One factor very much in Floyd's favor is age. Floyd is 30, Oscar is 34, and that could determine the outcome. Oscar is not an old 34, and he fought very well against (Ricardo) Mayorga (last May), but he has been through a lot over the years. Oscar has seen a lot of different boxing skills, but never a faster, more skilled fighter than Floyd. In his prime, Floyd has been a more dominant fighter than Oscar was in his prime.

There are a lot of questions in this fight, and the great thing about boxing is we will get answers. Everybody has an opinion, and then when we get the answers, everybody will have an opinion about the answers. That's what I love.