MAYWEATHER-DE LA HOYA: WHAT THEIR TOUGHEST FIGHTS TELL US ABOUT WHO WILL WIN

by William Dettloff

Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Oscar De La Hoya are winners. They always have been. Yes, De La Hoya has lost a few, but on the whole he's been profoundly successful and will be rewarded for that success (beyond what he's earned already, which is considerable), with induction into the Boxing Hall of Fame the moment he's eligible. Though less commercially successful, Mayweather is at least as accomplished in the ring, and in fact has not yet suffered the indignity of cashing a check in compensation for having lost a prizefight. He also is a certain future Hall of Fame member.

Much of the handicapping around their coming match has involved the perceived size disparity, De La Hoya's age and inactivity (and, yes, his success), and the effects of Mayweather's father and of Freddie Roach, among other things. But frequently, the surest way to pick a winner, especially in a fight between two guys as successful as these two have been, is to examine what has worked against them in the past: to look at their worst nights in the ring and ask why they went bad; and to ask if those circumstances could be repeated on May 5 against the fighter in the other corner.

Toward that end, what follows is a look at the toughest and most revealing nights Floyd Mayweather and Oscar De La Hoya have had as professional fighters: Mayweather's struggle with Jose Luis Castillo in their first fight, and De La Hoya's first loss to Shane Mosley. (Note: for the purposes of this analysis we don't see De La Hoya's losses to Felix Trinidad and Bernard Hopkins as relevant; the decision loss to Trinidad was almost laughably unjust and De La Hoya was out of his weight class against Hopkins).

These are the questions that should arise: can De La Hoya do what Castillo did? Is he anything like Castillo? Can he be? How is his style different? On the other side: Can Mayweather duplicate Mosley's success? What characteristics do Mayweather and Mosley share? Are there any? Which of these fighters - De La Hoya or Mosley - is more likely to do what Castillo and Mosley did? Let's look back at what happened. Then you decide.

Floyd Mayweather W 12 Jose Luis Castillo
Date: April 20, 2002
Division: Vacant World Lightweight Title
Site: MGM Grand, Las Vegas Nevada

Before: After nine defenses of the WBC super featherweight title he won from Genaro Hernandez, Mayweather makes the first of what will eventually be many jumps in weight. It's as good a time as any, as he appears to have all but cleaned out junior lightweight. In his last fight, he stopped the excellent Jesus Chavez after the ninth round. Some recall that Chavez had periods of success getting inside against "Pretty Boy Floyd," trapping him on the ropes and in corners and hammering his body. But he was crude and under-powered. They wonder if Castillo, who employs a similar style but is far heavier-handed and also superior technically, will have more success. What nobody knows at the time is two days before the fight Mayweather injured his left shoulder while working on the heavybag. His physician diagnoses a strained rotator cuff and Mayweather keeps quiet about it but speaks disparagingly about Castillo, predicting an easy win.

Castillo is no soft touch. Once a primary sparring partner for the great Mexican champion Julio Cesar Chavez, he hasn't lost in four years and is riding a 13-bout unbeaten streak that includes a win over and a draw against the excellent Stevie Johnston. He's defended the WBC lightweight title he won against Johnston three times; against Johnston (D 12), Cesar Bazan (KO 6), and Sung-Ho Yuh (KO 1). He's also won non-title bouts against Freddie Ladd (KO 4) and Juan Angel Macias (KO 8). Nonetheless, he is a decided underdog in the days and weeks leading up to the fight and few among the fight media give him even a remote chance of scoring an upset. Most of the prefight talk centers on Mayweather's ascent toward the top of the pound-for-pound ratings.

During: Mayweather, 28-0 (20) starts quickly, out-speeding the slower Castillo and using his superior mobility to out-maneuver him. A head butt opens a small cut over Mayweather's left eye in the second, but does not slow him down. He appears to win the first four rounds fairly easily, jabbing Castillo regularly and landing counter right hands and left hooks almost whenever he wants to. Castillo lands a few body blows that appear to temporarily knock Mayweather off-stride, but gets little done otherwise and is clearly behind approaching the bout's midway point.

Starting in the fifth round, Castillo wakes up and begins to get more aggressive. Near the end of the round he shakes off a sharp one-two from Mayweather and wails his body until the bell sounds. Mayweather slows toward the end of the sixth and Castillo, 45-5-1 (41), accelerates. Over the next several rounds Castillo's aggression forces Mayweather more and more to the ropes, where he churns punches almost non-stop, mostly to the body. Mayweather never loses his cool and blocks and slips many, but some get through. The last several rounds feature more of the same: Castillo working primarily to the body, Mayweather countering exclusively to the head. At the end, judges Anek Hongtongkam, Jerry Roth, and John Keane score unanimously for Mayweather by scores of 116-111 and 115-111 (twice), respectively.

After: Many in the crowd of 6,920 boo the decision. The HBO crew is unanimous in its contempt for the outcome; Harold Lederman has Castillo winning 115-111. Expert commentator George Foreman, speaking of Mayweather, remarks, "I hope he said thank you." The Ring magazine has Castillo up by a score of 116-113 at the end, and CompuBox scores are overwhelmingly in Castillo's favor: they say he landed 203 blows to Mayweather's 157, and that he landed at a higher rate - 40 percent to Mayweather's 35 percent. He also is credited with having landed 173 power punches to Mayweather's 66. However, many in the boxing press support the decision, saying most of Castillo's blows were blocked or slipped and that his aggression was ineffective. Castillo disagrees.

"Mayweather did a good job at the beginning," Castillo tells KO magazine. "But it is a long fight and I was there for the whole time. And when I was doing all that work, what were the judges seeing?" Mayweather, of course, has a different take. "He's a strong guy, but he fought a one-armed fighter and he still lost. I showed a lot because I fought a great champion with one arm and I still won." Oscar De La Hoya, of all people, chimes in too: "Whenever you watch a fight you just can see it clearly who won, and I had Castillo up," he says. "Everybody who I talked to had Castillo winning." A rematch is a natural.

Epilogue: Mayweather and Castillo met again eight months later at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. Mayweather again started quickly and established an early lead that Castillo was unable to overcome. Castillo again got better work done in the latter stages of the fight, but couldn't put together the sustained drives that marked his better moments in the first fight. Mayweather was unspectacular, steady, and the clear victor, though, somewhat maddeningly, by scores closer than those tallied in the first fight: 116-113 and 115-113 (twice).

Shane Mosley W 12 Oscar De La Hoya
Date: June 17, 2000
Division: WBC Welterweight Title
Site: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California

Before: They just don't get bigger than this. It almost doesn't matter that just two fights ago De La Hoya lost the WBC 147-pound title to Felix Trinidad. Why? First because everyone knows he was robbed, and second because last time out he steam rolled competent contender Derrell Coley and was awarded the WBC title made vacant by Trinidad's move up to 154 pounds. De La Hoya is still the most marketable fighter in the business, one of the two or three best pound-for-pound, and still, at age 27, a heck of a welterweight. There are rumors of friction in his camp, primarily between Joel De La Hoya Jr., Oscar's older brother, and trainer Robert Alcazar, but most feel De La Hoya's big-fight experience and punching power will carry the day. Indeed, De La Hoya continues to predict he'll have four fights and four knockouts in the year, a goal he set in the wake of the terrible decision against Trinidad.

Clearly Mosley is less accomplished on the world stage in big bouts but he is no less a prizefighter. It is his third fight since giving up the IBF lightweight title, which he'd defended eight times, and frequently spectacularly, against reasonably good challengers. But his resume doesn't come close to matching De La Hoya's. What's more, his two appearances at 147 - a 10th-round stoppage of Wilfredo Rivera and a three-round win over Willy Wise - were relatively uninspired. Still, he is undefeated and seen by many as the most dynamic fighter in the world. Plus, there is some regional rivalry at play: he and De La Hoya came up together in the amateurs and had sparred about 50 rounds together as kids, and both are West Coast products.

During: De La Hoya, still apparently stung by claims that he gave away the Trinidad fight by "running," goes straight to Mosley and looks to establish himself as the puncher. The 20,000-plus fans show their appreciation as the two go head-to-head almost from the start, but it's Mosley who gains early control by landing sharp right-hand counters over De La Hoya's jab. Over the first five rounds it is largely De La Hoya's left hook against Mosley's right hands and in the sixth a hooks stuns Mosley, 35-0 (32) and forces him to hold on. After six rounds De La Hoya, 32-2 (26) seems slightly ahead but appears to be tiring.

Over the second half of the fight De La Hoya fades a bit in each round, while Mosley, if he doesn't get stronger, at least is able to maintain a very fast pace. He initiates and finishes most exchanges and by the 10th round is clearly pulling away. His hand speed is too much for a fatigued De La Hoya to handle. Short, sharp right hands find the mark with increasing frequency and though De La Hoya still lands the occasional bone-rattling left hook, he is completely gassed in the last rounds, which Mosley dominates. Judge Marty Sammon scores it 115-113 for De La Hoya, but is over ruled by Lou Filippo and Pat Russell, who see it 116-112 and 115-113 for Mosley, respectively.

After: "I didn't knock him out so I didn't win," De La Hoya says, still feeling the sting of judges' decisions. "There has to be a rematch. Every great fight deserves a rematch. He kept on coming. He was in great condition. He had good power. I knew he was fast, and I matched his speed." Mosley is no less complimentary. "It was a great fight, a close fight," he says. "We went toe to toe for 12 rounds. We went soul searching. We showed we're both great warriors, two great warriors from the Los Angeles area. De La Hoya is a great champion. I was just the better man tonight."

Mosley's father and trainer, Jack Mosley, implies that De La Hoya underestimated Mosley's strength when he tells writer Kevin Iole, "If they shortchanged us or overlooked us, well, then that was their problem and that was a big mistake. Maybe they thought Oscar was going to come in and just run over Shane. We knew that wasn't going to happen." Shane, commenting on De La Hoya's lack of movement, says, "He fought more flat-footed than I remember him." Critics deride the strategy De La Hoya employed, citing past successes as a boxer-puncher rather than a straight-ahead slugger, and in the days that follow rumors abound that Alcazar will be replaced.

Epilogue: De La Hoya and Mosley met again in September 2003 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas for De La Hoya's world junior middleweight title. This time D La Hoya employed a jab-and-move style that seemingly kept Mosley at bay, but he still was out-muscled inside and hurt by Mosley's right hands to the body and head. De La Hoya started well enough but gradually wore down under the pressure Mosley applied and faded badly in the championship rounds. Though many thought he boxed well enough early on to deserve the decision, the judges thought otherwise, with each scoring the fight for Mosley by a score 115-113.