COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

Photos by Bob Canobbio/CompuBox

Calzaghe, 42-0, 31 KOs, making the 20th defense of his version of the super middleweight title, a 8-1 favorite over Manfredo, 26-3, 12 KOs, in his first championship fight.

A crowd of 30,000-plus is expected at the open-air Arms Park Stadium, site of Lennox Lewis' seventh round ko win over Frank Bruno on 10/1/93. That heavyweight championship fight drew an estimated crowd of 40,000.

Calzaghe, who won that vacant belt on 10/11/97 with a decision win over British folk hero Chris 'Simply The Best' Eubank, is currently boxing's longest reigning champion (9 1/2 years). Sven Ottke holds the record for successful super middleweight defenses with 21. The all-time record for successful defenses is 25, by Joe Louis, who also has the longest reign of any champion, 11 yrs., 9 mos. Calzaghe's 9 1/2 yr. reign is number four all-time.

Super Joe made his U.S. television debut on March 4, 2006 in a unification fight vs. the then undefeated Jeff Lacy. It was all Calzaghe, as he outlanded Lacy 351-116 in total punches. Calzaghe landed 37% of his 79 total punches thrown per round and 41% of his power shots. Calzaghe's constant pressure (he also avg'd 22 jabs thrown per round) allowed Lacy to get off just 37 total punches per round. The badly-beaten Lacy went down in the 12th and landed just 26% of his total punches. Scoring: 119-105; 119-107; 119-107.

Last October, Calzaghe in a flat performance, landed 30% of his 51 punches per round enroute to a decision win over the 20-1-2 Sakio Bika. The physical Bika landed just 24% of his 45 punches thrown per round. Calzaghe showboated early. He was also cut over the left eye from a Bika head butt in round four. Bika lost a point in the fifth after another head butt. Scoring: 117-110; 117-110 & 116-111.

In his 10/22/04 defense vs. the 23-3 (12) Kabary Salem, Calzaghe rebounded from a fourth round knockdown to win a comfortable 116-109; 117-109 & 118-107 decision. Calzaghe was also down in the second round of his successful defense vs. former 168-lb champ Byron Mitchell, who was also dropped in the second and wasn't able to continue.

Calzaghe's closest call was a split decision win over fellow-Brit and over achiever Robin Reid on 2/13/99. Reid won a version of the 168-lb title in 1996 with a 7th round ko over Vincenzo Nardiello. Reid also lost title fights vs. Thulane Malinga, Silvio Branco, Sven Ottke and was ko'd in eight rounds by Lacy in August of '05.

Manfredo gained notoriety not in victory, but in defeat. Fighting in LA, in a rematch of The Contender finale vs. hometown favorite Sergio Mora, Manfredo had a 188-133 edge in punches landed, yet found himself on the short end of a 77-75 (2x) Mora, 77-75 Manfredo split decision loss. He outlanded Mora in all eight rounds, averaging 74 punches thrown per round to 52 per round for Mora.

Five months earlier, with $1 million on the table for the winner, Manfredo was outlanded 168-108 by Mora in final match of The Contender tournament. Both fighters averaged 71 punches thrown per round, but Manfredo was able to land an average of one jab per round, throwing 11 per round.

Manfredo scored a pair of third round KOs in 2006 over a pair of fellow- New Englanders. In October he stopped cross-town rival Joey Spina eight months after icing the absorbent Scott Pemberton.

In May of '04, Manfredo landed 36% of his 60 punches per round enroute to a twelve round decision win over Anthony Bonsante. Manfredo also landed 50% of his power shots (216 of 435) vs. Bonsante, who lost a nine round technical decision to John Duddy on 3/16/07. Bonsante was also ko'd in five rounds by Allan Green on 7/21/06.

To say the cards are stacked against Manfredo is an understatement. He's fighting his first title fight, and it's on Calzaghe's hometurf, with a crowd of 30,000-plus expected. Calzaghe's the better boxer and the naturally bigger man. Manfredo has fought seven fights at 154-lbs, while Calzaghe's fought his entire 13 1/2 yr. career at 168 lbs. Youth may be on Manfredo's side, he's 26, Calzaghe's 35- that's his only advantage. He needs to be physical like Bika and turn this into a street fight, but doesn't hit hard enough (12 KOs in 29 fights) to get the job done.

Calzaghe wants to make a statement in front of his adoring fans and erase any after thoughts from his mediocre performace vs. Bika. He also wants to send a message to the other 168-lb champ, Mikkel Kessler, who looked dominate in his one-sided decision win over Librado Andrade last week.

Calzaghe, by late round stoppage, setting up a 168-lb Unification Super Fight with Kessler.