COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by Bob Canobbio/Compubox

Taylor, 25-0-1, 17 KO's, a 7-1 favorite as he returns home to defend his middleweight titles vs. former 154-lb champ Ouma, 25-2-1, 15 KO's, who is making his middleweight debut.

Taylor barely escaped Memphis with those belts in June after drawing with another former 154-lb. champion, Winky Wright. For the third straight fight, Taylor was outlanded, and for the third straight time, he got the decision. Wright bolstered by a 103-41 edge in jab connects, had a 226-163 edge in total connects. Those 226 connects by Wright were the most landed vs. Taylor in 19 of his fights rtracked by CompuBox. Taylor, landing the harder shots all night, went 122 of 395 (31%) in the power punch department while Wright answered with 123 of 308 (40%) power connects. Taylor won the last round on 2 cards to earn the draw. Wright, after averaging 56 punches thrown per round in the previous eleven rounds, threw just 32 in the 12th. Had Wright won the round, he would have won the title by majority decision. The cards read: 115-113 T; 115-113 W; 114-114. Taylor was also narrowly outlanded by Bernard Hopkins in both their fights.

Prior to Wright, Jermain was awarded another close, controversial decision over middleweight legend Hopkins. As was the case in their first meeting in July of ‘05, the rematch was more about what Hopkins didn't do than what Taylor did do. What Hopkins didn't do was let his hands go. He averaged just 25 punches thrown per round over the first six frames and found himself down 6-0 on one card and 5-1 on the other two cards.

Let's give Taylor some credit though. There had to be a reason why Bernard was reluctant to throw. The reason was Taylor's power and overall size- and some smarts. Taylor conserved, averaging just 29 punches thrown per round over the first six rounds, nine less per round than in the first fight when he faded down the stretch. He was also much more efficient with is bread and butter punch, the jab. He landed nearly twice as many (64, 36 in first fight) in the rematch, while throwing 55 less. He was less available for the counterpunches of Hopkins.

Taylor had enough left in the tank to get off 44 total punches in the pivotal 11th round- his high total for the fight. He won the round on all three cards to secure a 115-113 decision on all cards. He also threw 40 punches in the final round, enough to hold off Hopkins, who threw 54 total punches his high total for the fight. Taylor averaged just 33 punches thrown in rounds eleven and twelve of the first fight and was in serious trouble throughout the final three minutes.

Overall, Taylor was busier, throwing 391 total punches to 371 for Hopkins, who had a 130-124 edge in total connects. Taylor had a 64-29 advantage in jabs landed, hitting on 31% after landing just 14% in the first fight.

In their first meeting, Taylor ended Hopkins' ten-year-plus reign as middleweight champ with a split decision win. Hopkins started even slower than in the first fight, 19 punches thrown per round over the first eight rounds and Taylor was busier, throwing 38 per round. As a result, Taylor won seven of the first eight rounds on one card and six of eight on another. The third judge had the fight even thru eight.

As Taylor faded, Hopkins stepped on the gas, outlanding Taylor 56-23 in total punches over the last four rounds. Despite outlanding Taylor 12-5 in total punches in round twelve, judge Duane Ford gave the round to Jermain, depriving Hopkins of a title-saving draw.

Overall, Taylor went 86 of 453 (19%) to 96 of just 326 (29%) for Hopkins, who had a 78-50 edge in power connects. Taylor fought throughout the fight with a lacerated scalp that reportedly required 15 stitches.

In December of '04, after feasting on a steady diet of blown up junior middleweights, Taylor silenced some of his critics by wearing down former middleweight champ William Joppy over twelve rounds.

Joppy, who was softened up by Bernard Hopkins one year earlier (Hopkins landed over 400 punches), had his moments early with the jab. He averaged 32 jabs thrown per round over the first twelve minutes, outlanding the Taylor 42-34 in that department. He just didn't throw anything behind the jab, landing just 14 power shots in four rounds. A Taylor left hook in round five dropped Joppy, who went into survival mode the rest of the fight. Joppy managed to land 35% of his jabs, but he was too preoccupied with Taylor's power, averaging less than 15 jabs thrown per round over the last eight rounds.

Throwing out his decision loss to Roman Karmazin (he was sick and out of shape) Ouma averaged 104 punches thrown per round in ten of his junior middleweight fights tracked by CompuBox. He landed 36% of those punches, including 39% of his power shots. A fighter throwing that many punches often faces heavy artillery in return, yet opponents landed less than 30% of their total punches. It's not all power punching for Ouma either, as he landed 29% of his 33 jabs thrown per round, nine more than the 154-lb. average.

In August, Ouma warmed up for Taylor with a unanimous decision win over the previously undefeated Sechew Powell, averaging, yes, 104 punches thrown per round. He landed 380 total punches (36%), including 254 power punches (43%). Powell was able to find, but never hurt Ouma, landing 319 total punches (32 per round, 13 more than the jr. middleweight avg.).

Ouma landed 502 total punches in his decision win over Kofi Jantuah, becoming only the 5th fighter in CompuBox history to land more than 500 punches in a title fight. It was the 2nd time he topped 500+ punches landed in a fight (the only fighter to do so). He landed an incredible 585 punches in a little more than 10 rounds in his tKO win over Darrell Woods in a fight that was later changed to a no-decision after Ouma tested positive for marijuana use.

Taylor's fighting in his comfort zone. He's at home and he's facing yet another junior middleweight. After just slipping by defensive-specialists Hopkins & Wright, he's not going to have to look too far to find Ouma, whose only chance to win the fight is to outwork Taylor. Will Ouma continue to throw 100+ punches per round after feeling Taylor's power? What about Ouma's chin? He was down twice vs. Karmazin and KO'd earlier in his career by Agustin Silva.

Will Ouma get credit from the judges for his volume punching? He needs to land and not just throw. Hopkins twice and Wright landed 40% of their power shots vs. Taylor. Hopkins neutralized Taylor with ring smarts and by counterpunching (although not enough early in both fights and it cost him). Wright was effective with his jab and also did damage on the inside. Ouma's nowhere near as cagy as Hopkins and he surely doesn't have Winky's jab. Ouma can fight on the inside, but doesn't play "D" like Winky (who does?).

Ouma's going to steal some of the early rounds with his aggression, while the 6'1" Taylor picks his spots and slowly wears down the 5'8" Ouma, who probably could have fought at welterweight if the right fight came along. The game Ouma might make it to the finish line, but he'll absorb a beating down the stretch. Taylor, by hard fought unanimous decision.