BERT SUGAR'S PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by Bert Sugar

STRENGTHS OF EACH FIGHTER

MANNY PACQUIAO
- Manny Pacquiao (pronounced Pack-Key-ow) is fast, fast, fast. Not only does he get out of the gate quickly--as witnessed by his three knockdowns in the first round against Juan Manuel Marquez--but comes at his opponent quickly in a hell-bent-for-leather manner throwing punches.

- Well-conditioned, Pacquiao possesses bottomless energy, enabling him to maintain his almost windmill-like attack throughout, his offense being his defense.

- The man they call "The Pac-Man" moves in behind a sharp right jab from his southpaw stance, oftimes doubling it up, and then follows with a powerful left--including hooks and uppercuts--which in range, tends to be very effective.

- Pacquiao can be outmaneuvered and is susceptible to punches right down the pipe, something Morales is very capable of delivering.

ERIK MORALES
- The boxer they call "El Terriblé" possesses an excellent, straight left jab and a long, spearing right which, coupled with his height and reach advantage when used effectively, should enable him to keep Pacquiao at the end of his punches and at a distance--as he did in their first fight and for the first six rounds of the second--and be able to convert these plusses into an advantage over the shorter Pacquiao who tends to leave himself open.

- Morales has a set of tough whiskers, which he proved in the 12th round of their first fight when he went toe-to-toe with the hard-hitting Pacquiao, giving as well as he got.

- Never in an easy fight, Morales has the ability to come back--that is, if he can overcome his weight problem and the "Pac Man's" attack.

- Morales is fighting for his legacy--both in the boxing ledgers and in his native Mexico--and has psychologically prepared himself to win this, the "Rubber Match" between two, and prove his superiority over Pacquiao.

WEAKNESSES OF BOTH FIGHTERS

PACQUIAO
- Pacquiao is a one-and-a-two Lawrence Welk-type fighter who comes in behind a right jab and a straight left. The southpaw comes in straight at his opponent with hands held too low and little head movement and rarely varies his attack or movement, although trainer Freddie Roach has taught him to use his right, especially to the body.

- After throwing a punch "The Pac Man" tends to bring his hands back in a low position leaving himself vulnerable to counters, a Morales specialty.

- Pacquiao's all-out style is built for offense, not defense, and he sometimes has trouble when his opponent moves out of range and doesn't stand directly in front of him.

- Pacquiao can be outmaneuvered and is susceptible to punches right down the pipe, something Morales is very capable of delivering.

MORALES
- Morales has always had trouble making weight before and for this fight has had to come down about 15 pounds to 130. Such a loss of weight before his second fight with Pacquiao hurt him and left him tired and drained in the later rounds. This time Pacquiao's promoters have inserted a clause in the contract which would penalize him for not making weight and, if Morales doesn't come in under 132 would give "The Pac Man" the option of walking away with $1 million in what might be called "The Jose Luis Castillo" clause.

- Morales doesn't fight well when backed up into the ropes. He leans straight back to avoid getting hit by incoming punches, a dangerous tactic against a straight-punching Pacquiao.

- Loser of three of his last four fights (including his stoppage by Pacquiao, the only time in his 52-fight career he had ever been stopped), Morales might be near the end of his fabled career, the sand filling the bottom of the hourglass.

- Morales has trouble with his balance, sometimes becoming even clumsy in his foot movements. He cannot afford to do so against Pacquiao, as he did in the later rounds of their second fight, especially when he's on the ropes under the "Pac Man's" attack.

WHAT EACH FIGHTER MUST DO TO WIN

PACQUIAO
- Pacquiao must move, staying on top of Morales and forcing him back into the ropes, where it's his fight, and not stand in the middle of the ring where Morales can stick and move all night.

- The Pac Man must keep his hands up to thwart Morales' counters and move into range behind his right jab.

- Pacquiao must draw Morales into a slugfest, as he did in the 12th round of their first encounter when he staggered Morales.

- Pacquiao must alternate his powerful left with his newfound right, giving Morales the same difficulty he had fighting Pacquiao in their second fight.

MORALES
- Morales must put to good use his advantage in height and use his much longer (and straighter) left jab to maintain control of the fight as he did in the middle rounds of their first and second fights.

- Morales must move on Pacquiao, who has trouble with movement, keeping the fight at long range and in mid-ring and not back into the ropes.

- And Morales cannot afford to engage in a slugging match but must fight a disciplined fight, continually turning Pacquiao, countering him and moving, keeping Pacquiao off-balance and at the end of his long, stiff left jab and straight right.

Bert Randolph Sugar, called "Boxing's Foremost Historian", is the author of "Boxing's Greatest Fighters," Published by The Lyons Press and available at Border's, Barnes & Noble and Amazon.com