COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by Bob Canobbio

Manny Pacquiao (42-3-2, 33 KO) is a little more than a 2-to-1 favorite to beat Erik Morales (48-4, 34 KO) Nov. 18 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas and take a 2-to-1 lead in their series.

Much of the sentiment is fueled by two factors: First, Morales has lost three of his last four fights (though the win came against Pacquiao in their first fight) and second, Pacquiao was breathtakingly dominant during the second half of their rematch this past January. The enduring image from their second fight was a hurt and exhausted Morales crumpled on the canvas, looking far older than his 29 years after suffering the first two real knockdowns of his career. Now, after taking a long rest, the 30-year-old Morales is back for one final attempt to reverse his two-year long slide.

Can he do it? The numbers might provide a clue. In their first fight on March 19, 2005 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Morales won a unanimous decision that seemed slightly wider than the 115-113 scores across the board indicated. Though Pacquiao was competitive throughout, there was always the sense that Morales was in full control of the pace and geometry. Morales outlanded Pacquiao in nine of the 12 rounds, including a sweep of rounds two through eight. During that time frame, Morales outconnected Pacquiao 159-110, with the biggest divergence taking place in round six, where Morales went 25 of 52 (48 percent) and Pacquiao went 10 of 68 (15 percent). It is no coincidence that the sixth was the first full round after Pacquiao suffered a severe gash over his eye, and the Pac Man was caught adjusting to his new crisis circumstance.

Another key to Morales' dominance in the first fight was his jab. With a one-and-a-half inch height advantage and a full five-inch reach edge, it is natural to expect Morales to better utilize his jab. But right-handers usually have difficulty landing the jab against lefties because the southpaw's right glove is usually placed in the direct path of an orthodox fighter's jab. Still, Morales found a great deal of success as he outlanded Pacquiao in every round except for the ninth round, and Morales landed double-digits in jabs in the third (11 of 33), the sixth (12 of 27), the seventh (10 of 29) and the 11th (10 of 26). Overall, Morales landed 96 of his 303 jabs (32 percent) while Pacquiao was just 34 of 349 (10 percent). Pacquiao landed three or fewer jabs in the first eight rounds, including a dismal 0 for 29 in round three. But Pacquiao picked up the pace considerably in the final four rounds, landing 22 of his fight total of 34 jabs in those rounds.

Pacquiao found his greatest success in the first fight with his power punches. Like most natural southpaws, Pacquiao uses the jab to set up his powerful left and the numbers showed he found the mark fairly often. While Morales dominated with the jab, Pacquiao outscored "El Terrible" in seven of the 12 rounds in power shots. Pacquiao's top power-punching rounds came in rounds one (18 of 43, 42 percent), five (17 of 42, 40 percent) nine (17 of 37, 46 percent) and 12 (25 of 62, 40 percent).

But even in this category, Morales proved to be the more consistent fighter. The Mexican kept up a steady pace throughout the fight, throwing as many as 48 (in the final round) and as few as 25 in round six. But mostly Morales stayed within the envelope of 27 to 33 power punches thrown per round most of the time. Pacquiao was all over the place on his power punch attempts, throwing 43 in the first, then dipping to 24 in the second, 55 in the third, 35 in the fourth, 42 in the fifth, then 51, 64, 44, 37, 42, 46 and 62. Pacquiao fought in fits and starts throughout, never seeming to find a steady rhythm.

Morales dominated in jabs and overall numbers as he outlanded Pacquiao overall 265-217 despite throwing 180 fewer punches (714 to 894), outconnecting him on jabs 96 to 34 despite throwing 46 fewer (303 to 349). Pacquiao outlanded Morales in power punches 183-169, but he had to throw 134 more to do so.

The second fight took place January 21, 2006 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, and the numbers showed two different fights. In light of the thunderous and dominant ending in Pacquiao's favor, it's easy to forget that Morales was doing quite well in the first five rounds. Morales outlanded Pacquiao 107 to 84 in rounds one through five overall, and his jab was in fine form as he tripled Pacquiao's connects in that time frame (45-15). Morales was also holding his own in the power punch department; though Pacquiao outlanded Morales in the first five rounds 69-62, Morales was far more efficient as he topped the 50 percent mark in rounds four (14 of 28, 50 percent) and five (16 of 27, 59 percent). Pacquiao's high water mark in that period came in the fifth where he landed at a 41 percent clip (16 of 39, which would prove to be his more accurate for the fight). He was in the 20s and 30s in the other rounds.

But the wheels started to come off for Morales in the late stages of the sixth as Pacquiao started to break through the Mexican's defense with clusters of power punches to the head and the body. In their first fight, Pacquiao concentrated too much on landing his potent left cross but here the "Pac Man" was far more diversified as he made much better use of his right hook and body blows. Pacquiao hurt Morales in the final minute of the sixth and while Morales occasionally fought back in spurts, it was Pacquiao that dominated the flow of the fight.

In the sixth, Pacquiao was 36 of 107 overall, establishing fight-highs for both connects and attempts and was 32 of 80 in power punches. Conversely, Morales was just 8 of 29 in power punches and would never lead in that category throughout the remainder of the fight. From rounds six through 10, Pacquiao was 134 of 317 in power punches (42 percent) while Morales was 45 of 170 (26 percent).

In overall punches in that time frame, Pacquiao outlanded Morales 112-77, including 37-22 in the final two rounds. The key to Pacquiao's success in this department was his work rate, which was even more overwhelming than the connect figures. In the final round alone, Pacquiao was 18 of 60 in power shots while Morales was an anemic 5 of 17. Like a marathon runner putting together a heartbreaking final surge, Pacquiao's was just too much for Morales to handle and two knockdowns later the fight was over.

So how will the fight turn out? In the first fight Morales fought about as well as he could and yet the scorecards were fairly close. In the rematch, Pacquiao fought about as well as he could against a feisty but overwhelmed Morales and scored a resounding stoppage. The gut feeling here is that the third match will fall somewhere between the two extremes. Morales has taken the bull by the horns on his weight-making problems, mostly because he will incur a $500,000 penalty for each pound he is above the 130-pound limit. First, he spent two months at the Velocity Training Center in Los Angeles learning about nutrition and engaging in plyometrics and other conditioning drills before returning to the Otomi Mountains for his boxing-oriented training for seven more weeks. So Morales should be in the best condition he can be -- at 130 pounds. That doesn't necessarily mean that Morales' best shape is at 130, a big difference.

Pacquiao, a former champion at flyweight, junior featherweight and featherweight, feels very comfortable at 130 and enters the ring off a quality tune-up against former WBC super bantamweight champion Oscar Larios, who he decisioned over 12 rounds in July.

Pacquiao is younger, more natural at the weight, at the peak of his physical powers and coming off a dominating performance against a good opponent. Morales is older, unnaturally light and has more miles on his odometer. Morales has plenty of courage and drive and that alone will make him highly competitive, but courage alone won't be enough to propel Morales over the top. Pacquiao by unanimous decision.