COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by Bob Canobbio/Compubox

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is enough of a boxing historian to know that becoming "the man" takes more than just winning a belt. Yes, Mayweather won the IBF welterweight title from Zab Judah in his last fight April 8 and yes, he won a share of his fourth divisional crown in the process. But in order to become the undisputed top dog at 147, Mayweather (36-0, 24 KO) must get past Argentine strongman Carlos Baldomir (43-9-6, 13 KO), who beat Judah for the linear belt last January and defended it this past July 22 by knocking out Arturo Gatti in nine rounds. The oddsmakers say Mayweather is nearly a 5 1/2 -to-1 favorite to add Baldomir's WBC title to his collection and the statistics from his last three fights offer a big clue as to why. Simply put, the "Pretty Boy's" dominance over his last three opponents - Gatti, Sharmba Mitchell and Judah - has been nothing short of breathtaking, and the Grand Rapids native is fighting at a level of effectiveness seldom seen at the top levels of the sport. Against a group whose combined record is 129-13 (91 percent), Mayweather rolled up a 458-161 advantage in connected punches overall and a 338-98 bulge in power shots alone. While Mayweather was tagging them with ease, they in turn couldn't do the same to him as they landed at an anemic 14 percent clip. If boxing is a game of hitting and not being hit, Mayweather as of late has practiced that axiom to the utmost. Sure, Gatti's defense was leaky, the 35-year-old Mitchell was far past his best and Judah couldn't sustain his good start, but those circumstances can't completely obscure Mayweather's level of performance.

The most lopsided numbers came in the Gatti fight June 25, 2005, which earned Mayweather Gatti's WBC super lightweight belt. After a feeling-out first round, Floyd went to work in the second and never let up. He outlanded Gatti 27-4 overall in round two and piled up 29-7, 32-5 and 44-6 edges in rounds three, four and six. The power connects were even more lopsided as Mayweather hit Gatti seemingly at will with a 20-2 edge in round two, 17-2 in the third, 22-0 in the fourth, 12-2 in the fifth and 34-2 in the sixth. Gatti's 34 of 42 power connect performance in the sixth translated to a mind-blowing 81 percent accuracy. Conversely, Gatti reached the double-digit mark in overall connects just once when he went 10 for 43 (23 percent) in round four, but the most telling statistic was that the hard-hitting Gatti landed only 10 power punches in six rounds of action. Mayweather landed 10 power punches in the first round alone.

When one considers all those numbers, it's little wonder why Gatti's trainer James "Buddy" McGirt mercifully called off the bout between rounds six and seven.

Five months later against the tricky southpaw Mitchell at the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon, Mayweather faced a completely different style but was no less dominant as he scored another sixth round TKO.

Mayweather landed in double-digits in every round while Mitchell's high water mark came in the second when he landed 9 of 57 overall (16 percent).

By the fourth round, Mayweather had solved Mitchell's style and began teeing off, landing 17 of 35 power shots in the fourth (49 percent), 12 of 24 in the fifth (50 percent) and 9 of 17 in the decisive sixth (53 percent). Mayweather's defensive numbers were also impressive as Mitchell managed to land just 31 of his 274 punches overall for 11 percent accuracy.

In his most recent outing against Judah, Mayweather experienced some difficulties adjusting to "Super Judah's" speed in the first two rounds, with the New Yorker outconnecting Mayweather on power punches in both rounds (4-2 in the first and 7-3 in the second). But Mayweather took statistical control in the third and never looked back as he slowly stretched his lead throughout the rest of the fight. From the fifth round on, Mayweather outlanded Judah 163-58 overall and 131-39 in power connects. His mind was clearly on his business as he was the only one who kept his cool during the 10th round melee, and he showed admirable sportsmanship when he extended his gloves to Judah when the two were brought together to resume the fight.

While Mayweather's offense produces eye-catching results, he was also sparkling on defense, especially against the jab. Judah landed only 25 of his 308 jabs (8 percent) while Mitchell was even less effective as he connected just once in his first 76 attempts and landed only 7 of 144 jabs overall (5 percent). Ironically, Gatti, who is hardly a jabbing master, was the most successful of the three as he connected on 31 of 189 jabs for 16 percent.

Like Roy Jones before him, Mayweather's offense is not predicated on his jab but on swiftly delivered power combinations. Mayweather averaged 17 jab attempts combined against Gatti, Mitchell and Judah, seven below the welterweight average of 24. But when Mayweather throws the jab he lands it as his 7.4 connects per round is above the welterweight average of 6.1.

Mayweather's success in delivering and defending the jab is not a concern for Baldomir, who is in the running for 2006 Fighter of the Year off the strength of his upsets over Judah and Gatti. In fact, Baldomir's last three opponents had a combined record of 100-10 (91 percent). His stock and trade lies in his brute strength, marvelous conditioning and relentless power punching attack. Baldomir's shot at Judah was set up with a 12-round decision over Miguel Angel Rodriguez May 21, 2005. While he never really hurt Rodriguez, his tremendous work rate forced the quicker-handed Mexican to fight on the inside for most of the bout.

Baldomir averaged 85 punches per round, well above the welterweight average of 57.9 and topped the 100-punch mark three times (102 in the seventh, 113 in the 11th and 115 in the 12th). Baldomir outlanded Rodriguez 244-108 in power punches and outlanded him 292-202 overall while attempting 344 more blows (nearly 29 more per round). His superior activity led him to a 116-112, 116-112, 116-113 victory.

Baldomir was a 10-to-1 underdog against Judah, who was defending his WBC welterweight title in front of his home crowd at Madison Square Garden (though he would have walked out with the undisputed title had he won). One would have thought the familiar surroundings and supportive crowd would have lifted Judah to a higher level but instead he fought listlessly and concentrated on taking out Baldomir with one spectacular blow. From the third round on, Judah averaged just 37.6 punches per round while Baldomir unleashed 83.3 punches per round. In the 11th and 12th rounds, when Judah should have shown the most urgency, he threw just 33 and 26 punches while Baldomir launched 90 and 73 blows respectively. The Argentine also outlanded Judah 25-9 and 17-8 in the final two rounds, helping him to earn the 115-113, 115-112, 114-113 decision. Overall, Baldomir outlanded Judah 187-115, outthrew him 758-471 and racked up a 172-68 edge in power connects.

Six months after lifting the WBC belt from Judah, Baldomir walked into an even more formidable lion's den when he defended against Gatti at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J. Gatti's blood-and-guts fighting style suited Baldomir perfectly and the two men happily traded power shots at close range throughout. But Baldomir was just a little better in every department, and it began to show in the fifth round. In that stanza, Gatti landed 21 of his 38 power shots (55 percent) but Baldomir responded with a spectacular 51 of 79 (65 percent) power punching display in that same round. With Baldomir outlanding Gatti 54-24, the Argentine had established his superiority and he closed the show with a tremendous hook to the jaw in round nine. That hook capped off a 40 for 80 power punching round and overshadowed Gatti's best power connect performance (18 of 31, 58 percent) since the fifth. Overall, Baldomir was 267 of 562 (48 percent) while Gatti was 161 of 445 (36 percent).

Sizing up Mayweather vs. Baldomir is not as simple as many think. One would believe Baldomir, the bigger man, would have the bigger punch but the stats say he doesn't. Baldomir, who has fought at 147 his entire 13-plus year career, has knocked out only 22.4 percent of his 58 opponents while Mayweather has stopped 66.7 percent of his 36 foes, including two of three opponents at 147.

Baldomir has 22 more fights and 235 more rounds overall, but Mayweather has had 15 title fights while Baldomir has engaged in just two. Mayweather and Baldomir have two common opponents in Gatti and Judah, and statistically Mayweather performed much better against "Thunder" than Baldomir did, but Baldomir took Gatti out with one thunderous shot a split second after absorbing one of Gatti's howitzer-like hooks.

Neither man is any great shakes with the jab, but neither man is easy to hit with one either. Considering Mayweather's defensive mastery, it is no surprised that Gatti, Mitchell and Judah could land a combined 2.7 jabs per round. But the aggressive Baldomir has underrated defensive ability as he fielded a combined 5.6 jabs per round against Rodriguez, Judah and Gatti, which is below the welterweight average of 6.1 jabs yielded per round.

Because Baldomir walks around at a reported 185 pounds between fights, he will carry a significant strength edge into the ring. His high work rate, relentless aggression and desire to succeed should serve him well against the man regarded by many as the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. For Baldomir to win he must adopt a fight plan similar to Jose Luis Castillo, who used his superior strength to push Mayweather back and force him to engage on the inside. For Mayweather, it's a matter of speed, angles and precision; he must always keep Baldomir guessing as to the location of the next punch and must be of the mindset of winning a decision. A knockout would be icing on the cake against the iron-jawed Argentine, who at 35 is fighting as well, if not better, than he ever has.

But at age 30, Mayweather is five years younger, light years faster and at the peak of his physical powers. If Mayweather's historically brittle hands don't break on Baldomir's granite chin and if he doesn't let overconfidence seep into his psyche, "Pretty Boy" Floyd will win a unanimous decision to officially become "the man" at 147 in every sense of the word.