COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by Compubox/Lee Groves

Nikolay Valuev (44-0, 32 KO's) is a 4 to 1 favorite to successfully defend his title against Monte Barrett (31-4, 17 KO's) when they meet at the Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Illinois on October 7.

This fight marks Valuev's second defense of the belt he won by majority decision from John Ruiz last December 17 and if form holds, Valuev-Barrett will squash the record for largest weight differential in a championship fight. The current record was set by Valuev-Ruiz when the 7-foot Russian possessed an 86 1/4-pound edge, and that fight just beat the previous record that had stood for 71 years (Primo Carnera W 15 Tommy Loughran on March 1, 1934).

Valuev's title-winning effort took place in his adopted backyard of Germany, yet the pro-Valuev crowd didn't greet the verdict with full enthusiasm. The numbers offer insight as to why. First, Ruiz outlanded Valuev in eight of the 12 rounds (including five of the last six). Second, "The Quiet Man" trounced Valuev in power connects 128-43 despite attempting 110 fewer blows (294-184) and the American racked up a 195-157 edge overall though he unleashed 116 fewer punches (607-491). Finally, Valuev outclinched the master clincher. Of the 121 clinches in the 12-rounder, Valuev was judged to have initiated 76 of them with Ruiz 29 and 16 viewed to be mutual. In rounds 10 through 12, the visibly fatigued Valuev grabbed Ruiz 10, 13 and 10 times while Ruiz latched on 2, 4 and 3 times in the final three stanzas.

Where Valuev won the fight was his jab, which is clearly the best punch in his arsenal. Armed with an 85-inch reach, Valuev outjabbed Ruiz 114 to 67 and he attempted 226 more (423 to 197). Valuev's 35 jabs thrown per round exceeded the heavyweight average of 19 thrown per round by a wide margin and it is the bedrock of his offense. His snapping jab has plenty of mustard behind it and he uses it to keep his foes at proper punching distance. Look for the jab to be prominent against Barrett. Another revealing fight was Valuev's 12-rounder against Larry Donald October 1, 2005 in Oldenburg, Germany. The majority decision provided justification for Valuev's title shot against Ruiz, but it also lends insight as to how Valuev would handle a slick, speedy boxer like Barrett. It was clear that Donald, even at age 38, was the quicker, faster and more skilled fighter and one got the sense that his blows could rip through Valuev's defenses at any time. But Valuev's overwhelming physical presence has a way of inhibiting opponents' offenses, so despite having the edge in fundamental skills Donald spent long stretches doing absolutely nothing. He threw only 19 punches in the first round and averaged just 31 punches thrown over the first five rounds. Meanwhile, Valuev maintained a hefty work rate, especially for such a big man, as he threw 49 punches in the first round and averaged 55 attempts in the first five rounds, with 65 punches in the fourth round being the peak in that period.

Valuev's heavy jabs raised a swelling above Donald's right eye in the sixth round, but Donald began to break through in the eighth as he caught Valuev with several strong rights that opened a small cut around the Russian's left eye. During the final half of round eight, Donald nailed Valuev with 11 of his 16 attempts.


From then on, Donald was far more active as he averaged 41 punches thrown per round, with his peak being 51 in the final round. Donald connected on 23 of those punches and his positive work late conveyed the image that he had done enough to win the fight. But it was just an illusion as Valuev gained his second wind in rounds nine through 12 and won by sheer activity. In rounds eight through 12, Valuev averaged 52 attempts per round and he racked up double-digit connect rounds in all but the 12th, in which he was outlanded 23 to 6.

Donald passed Valuev in overall connects in the final 30 seconds of the fight as he ended with a 158-154 edge. But Valuev outjabbed the jabber by a wide margin in terms of connects (103 to 54) and especially attempts (425 to 184). Again, the smaller man outdid Valuev in power punches as Donald connected on 104 of his 268 attempts (39 percent) while Valuev was 51 of 226 (23 percent). Valuev's massive upper body prevents him from firing power punches quickly enough to land on most good heavyweights, and the exertion of throwing them often leaves him off-balance. Because it takes him a split-second longer to regain his balance following a power punch miss, he is more vulnerable to counters. Thus, he is wise to build his offense around his thudding jab, which requires little effort and allows him to remain in a defensively responsible position.

Valuev's fights with Ruiz and Donald present strengths Barrett must watch for as well as weaknesses to exploit, and the numbers from past fights suggest he possesses elements that could work in his favor against a man nine inches taller and nearly 100 pounds heavier.

On August 28, 1999 in Las Vegas, the 6-3 Barrett fought the 6-8 Lance "Mount" Whitaker. Though he lost a 12-round split decision Barrett got some good things done, especially with the jab. Barrett actually outjabbed the taller man as he landed 43 of 290 (15 percent) while Whitaker connected on just 12 of his 115 attempts (10 percent). Barrett also maintained an active work rate by averaging 53 punches thrown per round, slightly above the heavyweight average of 46. The bruising Whitaker won the fight on his superior power punching as he outlanded Barrett 185 to 106 and attempted 128 more (469-341) over the course of the 12 rounds. Whitaker's work rate was also comparable as he averaged 49 punches thrown per round.

Against Joe Mesi at Madison Square Garden December 6, 2003, Barrett proved he possessed sneaky power and resilience.

In the fifth round, Mesi dropped Barrett with a thunderous right but "Two Gunz" regained his feet and mounted a tremendous rally, dropping Mesi for the first time in his career with a sharp hook in the seventh and raising a huge lump under the crowd favorite's left eye. The majority decision (95-93, 94-93, 94-94) for Mesi was highly unpopular.

The statistics bore out their sentiments as Barrett outthrew Mesi 416 to 388 but was outlanded overall by a slim 115-102 margin. In power connects, Mesi barely outdid Barrett 59-56 and threw just nine fewer than Barrett (225 to 216). Mesi did, however, outjab Barrett 56-46 despite having thrown 19 fewer (191 to 172). Just like Donald did against Valuev, Barrett outhustled Mesi over the final four rounds to earn the public vote over a favored fighter.

On March 27, 2004, Barrett traveled to Dominick Guinn's hometown of Little Rock, Arkansas to play the role of second fiddle to Guinn's Star of the Future. After all he entered the ring with a 24-0 (17 KO) and was fresh off wins over Derrick Banks, Duncan Dokiwari and especially Michael Grant, whom he destroyed in seven rounds. In the end, Guinn did live up to his "Southern Disaster" nickname but not in the way he intended. He fought listlessly before dropping a split decision that should have been unanimous.

Barrett dominated Guinn in every phase of the game, both in terms of action in the ring as well as on the stat sheets. Barrett threw 151 more punches (646-495) and landed 81 more (207-126) and was far more effective with his jab as he outconnected him by a whopping 77-27 margin. Boxer Barrett outshined puncher Guinn in power shots, landing 130 of 272 attempts for an excellent 48 percent connect rate while Guinn landed 99 of 280 (35 percent).

The Mesi and Guinn fights prove that Barrett is capable of performing well in front of hostile audiences amid hostile circumstances, and that's what he'll face when he meets the giant Russian. Valuev is the attraction while Barrett again being cast as the party of the second part. Barrett's trainer James Bashir says Barrett is highly motivated to pull off the upset and he believes he has the blueprint necessary to make Barrett's dream a reality.

But while the spirit is willing, history and statistics spell out a formidable set of circumstances for "Two Gunz." First, the 35-year-old Barrett is a full two years older than Valuev and though he has had fewer pro fights (44 to 35) over fewer years (13 to 10), Barrett has experienced more punishing fights. Second, this is Barrett's first fight in nearly 14 months and as a speedy boxer who relies on timing, ring rust is a bigger enemy to Barrett than would be the case for a big puncher. Finally, Barrett will need to fight almost perfectly to overcome his nine-inch height disadvantage (the third largest in title fight history behind Valuev's 10 1/2-inch edge over Beck and 10-inch margin over Ruiz) and his seven-inch reach deficit.

Consider the results of Valuev's fights with men who weigh similar to Barrett:

Manao Navuilawa - 212 pounds - KO 1
Alexei Varakin - 214 1/4 pounds - KO 1
KOnstantin Prizyuk - 215 1/2 - KO 4
Cliff Etienne - 217 1/2 - KO 4
Rodney Harris - 219 - W 4
Alexei Osokin - 222 - KO 6
Toakipa Tasefa - 222 3/4 - W 12

And consider Barrett's results against his heaviest opponents:

Tim Witherspoon - 235 - W 10
Hasim Rahman - 236 - L 12
Joe Mesi - 237 1/2 - L 10
Juan Quintana - 242 - W 6
Greg Page - 244 - W 10
Wladimir KlitschKO - KO by 7
Lance Whitaker - 249 - L 1

Granted, Barrett is a more talented fighter than all of Valuev's other "small-man" opponents. And Barrett has had some success against his bigger foes. But all four of his losses came to much heavier fighters and his three victories came against a preliminary fighter and two former champions far past their primes, and many who were there thought Witherspoon had done enough to earn the split decision Barrett received.

Make no mistake, Barrett will be primed and prepared to make a determined stand against Valuev, but it's an awful lot to ask of someone to overcome such extreme physical disadvantages, his own ring rust and his history against much heavier foes to pull off a major upset. Yes, Valuev can be beaten, but his victor's name isn't likely to be Monte Barrett's. Valuev by ninth-round TKO.