COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

by Bob Canobbio

Barrera, 62-4, 42 ko's, a 7-5 favorite in defense of his 130-lb title vs. Juarez, 25-2, 18 ko's in a rematch of their controversial May 20 fight, won by Barrera via split decision.

Their first fight was originally scored a draw. That's before a mathematical error was found on the card of judge Ken Morita while transferring the scores from the judges' slips to the main scorecard. Morita originally tallied the fight 114-114. Some twenty minutes later, his card was changed to 115-114 Barrera, giving Marco the split decision win. Duane Ford's card also contained a boo-boo- with no bearing on the outcome. His card went from 116-114 Juarez to 115-114 Juarez. Anek Hongtongkam's card required no eraser, it remained in tact at 115-114 Barrera.

Although Juarez managed to bloody Barrera's nose and raise swelling above and below his left eye over the first half of the fight, he wasn't busy enough and it cost him. He averaged just 39 punches per round over the first six frames to 49 per round for Marco- who also established his jab, landing 40 of 188 to just 16 of 113 for Rocky thru six. As a result of Juarez's inactivity, Barrera won five of the first six rounds on two cards and four of six on the third.

Statistically, it was all Rocky the rest of the way. He upped his punch output to 70 thrown per round over the second half of the fight. He also outlanded Barrera 61-32 in power shots in rounds eight thru twelve and blood flowed freely from Barrera's nose all night.

Rocky won rounds seven thru eleven on the card of Duane Ford, who scored the last round even. Despite Rocky's dominance in rounds 11 & 12 (he landed 23 of a fight-high 91 total punches in the 11th and 14 of 72 in the 12th to 23 of 71 for Barrera in the 11th and 11 of 60 in the 12th), judge Ken Morita scored the 11th for Barrera and had the 12th even. Hongtongkam also gave the 11th to Barrera and scored the 12th for Rocky. Rocky also had a 32-20 edge in power connects in 11 & 12 and landed the harder shots- as he did all fight.

Overall, Barrera landed 168 of 635 (26%) total punches to 135 of 651 (21%) for Juarez, who landed 105 of 374 (28%) power shots to 84 of 279 (30%) for Barrera. Barrera's jab was the difference. It landed 84 of 356 times (24%) to just 30 of 277 (11%) for Rocky.

Last September, Marco totally schooled over-achiever Robbie Peden, outlanding the Australian 300-87. In Floyd Mayweather-like fashion, Barrera held Peden to single digits connects in EVERY round. Barrera landed 44% of his 60 punches per round, while Peden offered just 42 per frame. Barrera send Peden packing by landing 51 of 94 punches in the last round. Those 51 connects by Barrera represented 59% of Peden's total connects for the fight.

Barrera won his version of the 130-lb title in the rubber match (they've fought at 3 different weights) vs. hated rival Erik Morales in November of '04.

Barrera took full advantage of Morales' sluggish start to win 4 of the first 6 rounds on 2 cards and 5 of the first 6 on the third card, outlanding Morales nearly 2-1 thru the first six frames.

Morales got himself back into the fight in the middle rounds before Barrera rallied in 9 & 10, outlanding El Terrible 33-19 in power shots.

The last 2 rounds (given to Morales by all 3 judges) were reminiscent of their epic first fight, as Barrera landed 48 of 88 total punches in round 11 & 28 of 81 in the finale. Morales went 39 of 106 in the 11th & 26 of 89 in the 12th. Overall, Marco landed 49% of his power shots and outjabbed Morales 67-49, averaging 26 per round to 20 per for Morales. The scoring went: 115-113 B; 115-114 B & 114-114. Plans for a fourth meeting were short-circuited following Morales' tenth round ko loss to Manny Pacquiao in January.

Marco could have been arrested for assault after his first defense of the 130-lb title, last April, vs. woefully overmatched and joke of a #1 contender Mzonke Fana, who was last seen on the canvas in round 2, stiffer than a mackerel at the Fulton Fish Market.

Marco, a 4-1 favorite, was nearly chased out of the Alamodome ring in November of 2003 by Manny Pacquiao, who outlanded him 309-172. Marco was down in rounds 3 & 11, as Pac Man landed 30 or more punches in 6 of the 11 rounds.

Barrera returned to the ring seven months after the PacMan shellacking to do a similar paint job on former 122-lb champ Paulie Ayala. He outlanded Paulie 231-80, landing 51% of his power shots. He also threw 13 jabs per round vs. the southpaw (not usually an effective weapon for an orthodox fighter vs. a southpaw) before the and came (from a body shot) in round 10.

Juarez won two straight (KO 3 vs. the 37-8-1 Rey Hurtado & KO 4 Backlin Medrano, 9-2-1) since getting outworked by late substitute Humberto Soto last August. Soto, filling in for champ Injin Chi, took the fight on 13 days notice and proceeded to throw twice as many punches as Rocky (1006-571), outlanding him 249-209. Maybe Juarez was bummed about the title shot vs. Chi going away, but 48 punches thrown per round wasn't going to get the job done vs. the bigger Soto, a natural 130-lber. Juarez threw over 50 punches in a round in just five rounds, and never threw more than 64 in any frame. Soto, who averaged 42 JABS thrown per round, lost two points for hitting behind the head and still won by scores of 114-113 twice and 114-112.

In December of '04, Juarez blasted out faded former champ Guty Espadas in round two. Juarez buzzed Espadas late in round one, then finished the job in round two with his patented left hook that broke Espadas' nose.

Five months earlier, Juarez averaged just 34 punches per round enroute to a unanimous 12-round decision win over Zahir 'The Grabber' Raheem, who lost three points for excessive holding.

Raheem, a victim of some Texas-style home cooking, was down in round four and looking for a place to hide before getting his act together. He outlanded the Houston-born Juarez 67-38 over the next four rounds to get himself back in the fight, averaging 69 punches thrown per round over that 12-minute span. He then averaged just 58 thrown per round the rest of the way. Juarez had a slim 65-57 edge in connects in those rounds- enough to impress the judges who voted Juarez 115-109; 113-111 & 114-110.

Overall, Juarez landed 146 of 409 (36%) total punches to 156 of 726 (21%) for Raheem. Juarez had a slim 96-91 edge in power connects, throwing 251 to Raheem's 349. Take away the knockdown and the three penalty points and the fights' a draw.

Juarez has been down once in his career. That was in the second round of his decision win over the then 19-7 Joe Morales in April of '04. Rocky recovered to land 45% of his 50 punches per round. Barrera was down in the first Jones fight and twice vs. Pacquiao.

Juarez wasn't even on Barrera's radar prior to their first fight. Marco originally was going to challenge Jesus Chavez for his lightweight title in March before Chavez was injured. Then a deal for a fight with Juan Diaz, who holds another lightweight belt, couldn't be made- enter Juarez.

Barrera's certain to be more focused on Rocky the second time around. He's a proud champion, a future Hall of Famer and in the past has been a master at making adjustments in the ring. He's also pissed at Juarez. Barrera: "I'm going to teach him a lesson on September 16. I am going to hold his hand and take him to school. He has talked so much trash in Houston."

Juarez figures to make some adjustments of his own. It's safe to say he'll be busier this time. Can he maintain a 70-punch per round output for 12 rounds if necessary-punching from bell to bell. (Both Morales and Pacquiao averaged around 70 punches thrown per round in their wins over MAB). The Juarez camp felt Barrera stole rounds by rallying in the last :30- a veteran ploy that worked so well for Muhammad Ali throughout his career and was part of Ray Leonard's strategy in his upset win over Marvin Hagler.

The now 32 year-old Barrera turned pro before his 16th birthday. How many more slugfests can he survive? Surely he's not going toe-to-toe with the younger, harder-hitting Juarez, but they'll come a time when he'll have to hold his ground and exchange with Juarez, who clearly landed the harder shots in the first fight and has the momentum going into the rematch.

We could very well see a replay of the first fight. Barrera sets the tone with his jab, followed by combinations, then moving out of harms way. Juarez stalks, lands the harder punches, but the more focused and more seasoned Barrera gets the better of the exchanges to escape Vegas with a split-decision win in a highly-entertaining fight.