COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS

August 9th, 2006 - by Bob Canobbio

Rahman, 41-5-2, 33 ko's, an 8-5 favorite in defense of his version of the heavyweight title vs. Maskaev, 32-5, 25 ko's. Maskaev won their first fight with a stunning, come-from-behind eighth round knockout.

In that first meeting, which took place on 11/6/99 in Atlantic City's Boardwalk Hall upstairs ballroom (The Pernell Whitaker room), Rahman was ahead on all scorecards thru seven rounds (68-65 2x & 70-63) of the scheduled 10-rounder, but not in total control of the fight.

Maskaev was able to jab with the jabber, landing 70 of 172 jabs (41%- 9% higher than the heavyweight average) to 71 of 212 (33%) for Rahman, who held a 187-177 edge in total connects, throwing 66 punches per round to 60 per round for Maskaev- a brisk pace for heavyweights, who average 48 punches per round. They were landing their power shots too. Maskaev connected on a combined 51 of 106 power shots in rounds three thru five. Rock landed 31 of 54 power shots (57%) in round six and 28 of 47 (60%) in the seventh before getting nailed by a right hand in mid-ring that knocked him back to the ropes. Another right hand send Rock head first, out of the ring, unconscious, nearly onto the lap of HBO's Jim Lampley. Rock was counted out (he was unofficially able to sit up at a count of 15) :40 into the eighth.

In March, despite throwing 933 total punches (78 per round), Rock had to win the last round of his first defense, vs. the rotund James Toney to hold onto his belt via a majority draw (117-111 R, 114-114, 114-114.) The well-conditioned Rahman (heck, he was in the gym for nearly seven months straight waiting for Vitali) threw 90 punches in the 12th, landing 35 to just 14 of 55 for the gassed Toney, who weighed a career-high 237 pounds.

Rahman was successful with his jab, landing 120 of 379 (32%- an average of 32 thrown per round- remember, Rahman threw a CompuBox heavyweight record 83 jabs in the third round of his draw with David Tua in '03), but made the fight harder by falling into Toney's traps and fighting from close range. That tactical error allowed the stamina-challenged Toney to rest and also gave him more punching opportunities. That, plus Rahman figured out early Toney wasn't able to hurt him and at times foolishly decided to attempt beat Toney at his own game.

Toney's lack of conditioning finally caught up with him in the championship rounds and it cost him a piece of the heavyweight pie (and you know anything that includes the word pie Toney's into). After averaging 56 punches thrown over the first eight rounds, Toney slumped to just 46 per round over the last four frames. He threw a fight-low 41 punches in the 11th, while Rock fired off 82 (landing 24).

Overall, Rahman went 279 of 933 (30%) to 263 of 633 (42%) for Toney, who landed nearly half of his 440 power shots (215 of 440) to 159 of 554 (29%) for Rahman, who threw 79 or more total punches in 8 of the 12 rounds. He didn't fight the smartest fight vs. Toney, but he was in better physical condition and it allowed him to retain his title.

After spending most of 2005 preparing for a challenge of Vitali Klitschko that never came off after four cancellations, Rock finally got to lace up the gloves in August, when, in less than spectacular fashion, he decisioned a friend of his, Monte Barrett, who's rumored to be the designated challenger for another heavyweight champ, the 7'0" Nicolay Valuev in October.

He did enough damage with double left jabs and overhand rights to close Barrett's left eye, however, Barrett too had his moments, wobbling Rahman on several occasions- including the last round. As the crowd booed the uneven perormance, the scorecards read: 118-110 twice for Rahman and 116-112 Rahman- the new interim heavyweight champ.

Rahman struck gold, (or did he after bolting from promoter Cedric Kushner and a $20 million-plus offer from HBO, for Don King and a dufflebag full of cash following his upset of Lewis) when he ko'd an out-of shape Lennox Lewis in April of 2001. Lewis, preoccupied with the filming of Ocean's Eleven, weighed a then career-high 253 ½ lbs, arriving in South Africa the week of the fight. Rahman trained there for three weeks.

Rahman averaged 27 per round. By outjabbing Lewis, who averaged just 19 per round, Rahman kept the pressue on and got close enough to land the right hand that put Lennox down for the count in round five. The Rahman jab also totally disrupted Lewis' rhythm as the unfocused Lennox managed to throw just 32 total punches per round.

The rematch seven months later was a different story, as Lewis was seven pounds lighter and way more prepared. As a result, he outjabbed Rahman, averaging 28 per round, to just 18 per frame for Rock, who managed just 32 total punches per round. Lewis "dressed" Hasim with a seldom used left hook, then unloaded a right hand that sent The Rock tumbling to the canvas in a heap. As the jab goes, so goes Rahman & Lewis.

Here's a trivia question. Who was Evander Holyfield's last victory against? Hasim Rahman, that's who. Seven months after losing his title to Lewis, Rock dropped a listless eight round technical decision to the then 39-year-old Evander Holyfield. Rahman averaged 18 jabs per round among his 39 total punches per round before a swelling above his left eye the size of the Fiji Islands courtesy of several well-place Holyfield "head shots" forced a stoppage of the fight and a split technical decision loss.

He returned nearly 10 months later and 35 pounds heavier for his rematch with Tua. The added weight didn't have an adverse effect on his jab output, as he averaged 47 per round (throwing 563 over 12 rounds, #2 all time for heavyweights). The extra poundage apparently affected his power punch output, as he got off just 11 per round, as Tua had a 73-48 edge in that department, good enough for a draw. Tua did land 44% of his power shots, but didn't exactly light up the CompuBox computer either, averaging just 14 power shots thrown of his own per round.

Rahman's descent continued in December of 2003, as he fell under the spell of John "The Grabber" Ruiz, losing a 12-round decision to maybe least popular heavyweight champ in history.

Rock then returned to his Maryland roots, first winning a hard-fought 10-round decision (96-94 3x) over former cruiserweight champ Al Cole, who was one month shy of his 40th birthday. Rahman rallied in the late rounds, outlanding Cole 115-31 over the last 12 minutes to safe face. He followed with consecutive second round knockouts of Mario Cawley (who clearly was looking for a soft spot to land), Rob Calloway & shopworn Terrance Lewis.

In November of '04, in clearly his best performance since Lewis I, Rahman totally dominated the lumbering Kali Meehan, who came thisclose to stopping former WBO title holder Lamon Brewster two months earlier. Rahman could have been arrested for assault after outlanding Meehan 128-33 in total punches, including 55-6 in round four. What was Meehan's people thinking bringing Kali back to face Rahman just two months after his grueling fight with Brewster?

After his shocking ko win over Rahman, Maskaev ko'club fighter Sedreck Fields and fringe contender Derrick Jefferson, before running into a Kirk Johnson left hook that knocked Maskaev out of the ring unconscious. Maskaev couldn't deal with Johnson's movement, averaging just 32 punches thrown per round. He took off six month, then wasn't exactly put in soft in his return, as he was clubbed out in two rounds by Lance 'Goofi' Whitaker, who landed 41% of his power shots. This would be Maskaev's fourth loss as a pro, all by knockout. He was also ko'd in the first round of his 7th pro fight by Oliver McCall and by David Tua (4/5/97 KO by 11).

He returned five months after the Whitker loss with two more ko's, then was ko'd for the fifth time in his career- this time by the 318 lb. Corey Sanders in March of '02. End of the line. Not quite. Ten wins later, including a decision win over the absorbent Sinan Sam last November in a elimination fight and here he is fighting for the heavyweight title against a man he brutally ko'd nearly six years ago.

We're going to have to assume that Rahman will be in the best physical shape possible. Mentally, that's another question. What happens when Maskaev lands again on the Rock's sometimes suspect chin? What about Oleg? Can he survive another slugfest?

The key to the rematch is Maskaev's jab and Rahman's commitment to just winning the fight and not evening the score with a spectacular ko win. The first time out, Maskaev landed his jab at a better rate than Rahman (41%-33%), landing just one less. Does the 37-year-old have stamina left to hang with Rahman, who figures to throw 60-70 punches per round. If Rock ain't that busy and Maskaev's jabbing with him, anything can happen in this one. Just look at the odds: Rock's only an 8-5 favorite over a 37-year-old who's been ko'd five times.