COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS: MOSLEY VS VARGAS II

by Bob Canobbio/Compubox

Mosley, 34, a 9-5 favorite vs. Vargas, 28, in rematch of former champions. In February, Mosley won via a 10th round TKO after Vargas, 26-3, 22 KO's, could not fight on due a swollen-shut left eye.

It's Vargas' first rematch. Mosley won his rematch with Oscar De La Hoya in controversial fashion and lost rematches to Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright.

The W was just Mosley's (42-4, 36 KO's, 1 no dec.) fourth in his last nine fights and his first KO since 7/21/01 (KO 3 Adrian Stone). All three of Vargas' losses have been on stoppages, although his losses to Trinidad (KO by 12) and De La Hoya (KO by 11) were legitimate KO's.

Late in round one, a Mosley right hand immediately caused swelling over Vargas' left eye. There's some bad karma involving Vargas and the first round of his fights at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. Remember, he barely made it out of the first round of his 12/2/00 fight with Tito Trinidad. The rematch is scheduled for the MGM Grand Garden Arena down the road.

Mosley continued to target the growing baloon, as he built up a 40-20 edge in power connects over the first nine minutes, landing 50% in the second round and 44% in the third. Shane won two of the first three rounds on all cards.

Then Vargas, the more driven and naturally bigger fighter, began to assert himself. He outlanded Mosley 83-62 in total punches over the next four rounds, winning all four on one card and three of the four on the other two cards.

As Vargas' eye and forehead swelled to Elephant Man proportions, Mosley swept rounds eight and nine, outlanding the vision-challenged Vargas 40-29 in total punches. Shane had his biggest round of the fight in the eighth, landing 20 of 36 power shots (56%), prompting a visit to Vargas' corner by a ringside physician.

Several flush Mosley right hands on the swelling caused referee Joe Cortez to stop the fight at 1:22 of the tenth round.

Overall, Mosley had just an eight punch edge in total connects (147-139), averaging 55 punches thrown per round to 48 thrown per round for Vargas, who threw just 88 jabs all night! (Mosley averaged 22 jabs thrown per round). Mosley also landed 42% of his power shots, many to the damaged left eye of Vargas, who landed 33% of his non-jabs. Mosley led 86-85 on judges Paul Smith & Chuck Giampa's cards. Vargas led 86-85 on Patricia Jarman's card. Jarman also had Vargas ahead 97-94 over De La Hoya thru ten rounds.

Last September in a stay busy fight, Mosley decisioned (96-94; 97-93; 98-92) the unknown and the then undefeated Jose Cruz. He averaged just 45 punches per round, but did land 45% of his power shots. Mosley had a 173-114 edge in total connects vs. Cruz, who got off 74 punches per round.

Five months earlier, he simply outclassed the gutsy David Estrada (18-1), landing 56% of his power shots while averaging 60 total punches per round. He hurt Estrada several times to the body, but never stepped up his attack. Shane had just a 146-120 edge in power punches landed vs. the light-hitting Estrada (234-140 in total punches landed), who landed 31% of his power shots and got Mosley's attention several times.

Prior to his much needed wins over Estrada and Cruz, Mosley dropped consecutive decisions to Winky Wright. In November of '04, he lost a majority decision to Wright, who outlanded Mosley 273-154. Wright's jab, as is the case with all his fights, was the difference, as he landed 35% of his 32 jabs per round. Mosley landed 108 power shots (to 135 for Wright) and averaged 54 punches per round, landing 24% overall. Surprisingly, Mosley was ahead on two scorecards thru nine rounds. He then threw just 45 punches in round ten and only 42 in round eleven-his low totals for the fight. Wright then stepped it up, landing 30 of 55 in the 10th and 22 of 71 in the 11th. The 9-5 favorite Wright swept the last 3 rounds on 1 card and 2 of the last 3 rounds on the other 2 cards (he outlanded Mosley 73-34 over the last 9 minutes) to retain his title by scores of 115-113; 115-113 & 114-114. Wright had his lapses, averaging just 24 jabs thrown in rounds five and eight, while averaging 34 per frame in the ten other rounds. As a result, Mosley had his best rounds, landing 20 total punches in the fifth and 24 in the eighth.

Fighting every minute of every round, Wright won their first fight in March of '04 much easier. Mosley landed 27% of his 52 punches per round, while Wright landed 48% of his power shots, set up by 35 jabs per round. Mosley was outlanded 250-166, but did close the show by throwing 84 punches in the 12th round. Scoring: 117-111; 117-111; 116-112. Mosley lost 2/3 of the junior middleweight title and millions after refusing Oscar De La Hoya's offer of $12 million for the rubber match. He reportedly earned just $5 million for BOTH Wright fights.

In September of 2003, Mosley made 2-0 vs. Oscar, winning a controversial unanimous decision. A 2-1 'dog (he was a 4-1 'dog in their first fight), he averaged 41 punches per round, landing 127 of 496 to 221 of 616 for De La Hoya, who had a 106-33 edge in jab connects. Mosley trailed just 115-94 in power connects, less than 2 per round, and clearly landed the harder punches down the stretch. Mosley swept rounds 8-12 on all but one card. He landed an average of 11 of 26 power shots in rounds 8-12 after landing half those numbers in rounds 1 thru 6. The cards read: 115-113 across the board.

In their first fight, at welterweight, in June of 2000, Mosley landed 284 punches vs. De La Hoya, (the most punches landed vs. Oscar in 28 fights of his tracked by CompuBox) dominating rounds 7-12. The KO-happy De La Hoya was outlanded 45-18 in round 12, as Shane landed 57% of his power shots for the fight. Mosley, perceived as the smaller man, actually outjabbed De La Hoya-landing 110 of 374 to 92 of 270 for Oscar. The judges scored it: 116-112 M; 115-113 M; 115-113 D.)

Seven months after the first De La Hoya fight, sitting atop everyone's "pound-for-pound" list, the 5-1 favorite Mosley was badly beaten by Vernon Forrest, who dropped Mosley twice in round two enroute to a unanimous decision win. Mosley was nearly decapitated in round two from a Forrest uppercut and badly hurt in round ten from a body shot. Mosley averaged just 33 punches per round and was outlanded 164-103 by Forrest. Scoring: 115-110; 117-108; 118-108.

Forrest went to 3-0 vs. Shane in the rematch (he also decisioned Mosley in the amateurs) with a lackluster decision win. Shane fought cautiously, averaging just 22 punchers per round. He was outlanded 120-114 by Forrest. Mosley landed just 217 total punches in both Forrest fights. He landed 67 more punches in the first fight vs. Oscar.

Mosley totally dominated the lightweight division from 1997-'99. He successfully defended the title 8 times, all by KO, after decisioning Philip Holiday to win his first belt. He averaged 60 punches per round as a lightweight and landed 60% of his power shots in seven of those fights tracked by CompuBox.

Last August, Vargas scored a knockdown in round three, then labored in the late rounds before scoring a unanimous decision win over the 37-year-old Javier Castillejo, who held a 154-lb title, from 1999-'01. Vargas averaged just 48 punches per round, landing 46% of his power shots. He outlanded Castillejo 192-119, but just 112-87 in power shots. This was the same Castillejo that De La Hoya outlanded 403-121 in 2001. Vargas reportedly spent several hours in a sauna the day of the weighin in an effort to make 154 lbs.

As he did vs. Joval, Vargas again saved the best for last, throwing 70 punches in round 9 and 62 in the 10th, landing 27 total punches in each round, his high totals for the fight. As a result, Casty also had his best rounds late, landing an average of 18 punches per round over the last 4 rounds after landing just 8 per round in the previous 6 frames.

Five months earlier, Vargas returned to the ring following a 15-month layoff and decisioned the light-hitting Raymond Joval over 10 rounds. Adopting new trainer Danny Smith's defense-first style, Vargas landed 51% of his carefully placed 49 punches thrown per round. He averaged 16 jabs per round and seldom tried to take out Joval, who landed just 17% of his 99 punches thrown per round. Vargas did finish strong, averaging 64 punches per round over the last 3 rounds. He also landed 32 of 48 power shots (67%) in the eighth. Joval had his moments, outlanding Vargas 35-22 in round 5, but didn't have enough pop to deter the tentative Vargas. Scoring after 10 rounds: 98-92 V; 96-94 V; 97-93 V.)

In July of 2003, fighting before a frenzied Olympic auditorium crowd, Vargas stopped Fitz Vanderpool in six rounds, 10 months after the KO loss to Oscar De La Hoya. The KO loss to De La Hoya was further compounded when he tested positive for steroids and was suspended 9 months and fined $100,000 by the Nevada Athletic Commission. Vargas threw just 41 total punches per round, but landed 51% vs. the visibly intimidated Vanderpool, who landed just 44 punches all night, among his 51 punches thrown per round!! Vanderpool averaged 96 punches per round in a ten round draw with CompuBox record holder Ray Oliveira in January of '99.

Possessing a Body by Jake that he proudly displayed at the weigh-in, Vargas came out aggressive and strong vs. De La Hoya, outlanding the Golden Boy 86-29 in power shots over the first 5 rounds, including 22-3 in the third. After getting off 69 total punches in round five, Vargas averaged just 41 per round over the next nine minutes. As a result, De La Hoya's accuracy increased- Oscar landed 45% of his power shots in round six and 65% in round eight. Vargas responded with his best round of the fight in the ninth, landing 41 of 76 total punches (54%), including 32 of 61 power shots (52%). De La Hoya led just one point on two cards thru nine-Vargas was ahead 87-84 on the third card! A four-punch combination changed everything late in round 10. A left hook dropped Vargas in the 11th, before he was pummeled on the ropes and stopped at 1:38 of the round.

Vargas landed 43% of his 48 punches per round- but totally abandoned the jab vs. De La Hoya, averaging just 13 per round to Oscar's 39 per round. This was not the same Vargas that averaged 76 punches per round, including 25 jabs per round, in his April 2000 decision win over Ike Quartey. How sharp was Vargas vs. Quartey? He actually out threw (305-290) and outlanded (132-122) Ike in the jab department- the same Quartey that LANDED 313 jabs-an all-time CompuBox record for any fighter in any weight class, vs. Jose Luis Lopez in October of '97. Overall, Vargas outlanded Quartey 389-272, including 257-150 in power shots-all set up by the jab. De La Hoya landed just 206 of 551 total punches (37%) vs. Quartey in their February '99 fight, won by Oscar via split decision.

Vargas was also KO'd in the 12th round of his December 2000 matchup with Tito Trinidad. Vargas was badly hurt from left hook :15 into the fight. He was down twice in that opening round, then rallied to drop Tito in the fourth. By round seven, Vargas was back in the fight. Trinidad then dominated rounds eight thru ten, outlanding Vargas 71-43 in power shots, including 24-4 in the 10th. Vargas actually won the 11th round on all cards but still needed the KO for the win going into 12th and final round. Instead he walked into several Trinidad bombs that ended the fight at 1:33 of the 12th after 3 more knockdowns. Vargas landed 38% of his 50 total punches per round vs. Tito, who landed half of his well-placed 40 punches per round.

Vargas, who won a junior middleweight title in his 15 pro fight and only 21st month as a pro, (KO 7 Yory Boy Campas-12/12/98), also has a controversial majority decision win over Winky Wright (12/4/99). Out of shape mentally and physically, the just turned 22 year-old Vargas had to rally in the last two rounds to pull out the fight. He had enough left in the tank to do so, throwing 99 punches in the 11th and 85 in the 12th to get the vote of two judges (the other voted even) over Winky, who might have thought he had the fight already won, throwing just 25 punches in the 12th. Vargas outlanded Wright 266-229 in total punches. Mosley landed 100 less total punches than Vargas in each of his two fights with Wright. That was then and this is now.

Pay-per-view sales from the first fight were somewhere north of 400,000 buys, a pleasant surprise that prompted an immediate rematch. Enough time for Vargas' eye to properly heal? Hasim Rahman layed off nine months after his 6/1/02 fight vs. Evander Holy field was stopped due to a grotesque swelling over The Rock's left eye.

What about Vargas' weight? He reportedly arrived at training camp some nine weeks ago at 175 lbs. That's 13 pounds lighter than what he reported to camp at for the first fight. Ok, but what he did weigh four weeks before training camp when he started working with his conditioning coach?

Jack Mosley's back in Shane's corner. Advantage Mosley, or at this point in time, just business as usual? The Mosley's aren't known for their penchant for making adjustments, so what, if anything does Shane do differently the second time around?

Despite the swollen-shut eye, Vargas was coming on in the first fight. He landed just 21% of his power shots in the first four rounds, then doubled it to 43% in rounds five thru nine. Not bad for a one-eyed fighter. He's got to be the more motivated fighter, knowing another loss virtually eliminates him from any big money fights down the road- and how long can that road be, knowing his history of back trouble.

Mosley starts fast, builds up an early lead. Vargas then gets it into gear in the middle rounds, imposing his will on the tiring Mosley. The fight's up for grabs into the last round, with the equally-fatigued Vargas squeezing out a majority decision win.