COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS:
TAYLOR VS. WRIGHT

by Bob Canobbio/Compubox

Taylor 25-0, 17 ko's, a slight favorite as he makes the second defense of his versions of the middleweight title vs. former junior middleweight champ Wright, 50-3, 25 ko's, who hasn't lost in 6 1/2 years.

In December, Taylor, 27, won another close, controversial decision over middleweight legend Bernard Hopkins. As was the case in their first meeting last July, the rematch was more about what Hopkins didn't do than what Taylor did do. What Hopkins didn't do was let his hands go. He averaged just 25 punches thrown per round over the first six frames and found himself down 6-0 on one card and 5-1 on the other two cards.

Let's give Taylor some credit though. There had to be a reason why Bernard was reluctant to throw. The reason was Taylor's power and overall size- and some smarts. Taylor conserved, averaging just 29 punches thrown per round over the first six rounds, nine less per round than in the first fight when he faded down the stretch. He was also much more efficient with is bread and butter punch, the jab. He landed nearly twice as many (64, 36 in first fight) in the rematch, while throwing 55 less. He was less available for the counterpunches of Hopkins.

Taylor had enough left in the tank to get off 44 total punches in the pivotal 11th round- his high total for the fight. He won the round on all three cards to secure a 115-113 decision on all cards. He also threw 40 punches in the final round, enough to hold off Hopkins, who threw 54 total punches his high total for the fight. Taylor averaged just 33 punches thrown in rounds eleven and twelve of the first fight and was in serious trouble throughout the final three minutes.

Overall, Taylor was busier, throwing 391 total punches to 371 for Hopkins, who had a 130-124 edge in total connects. Taylor had a 64-29 advantage in jabs landed, hitting on 31% after landing just 14% in the first fight.

In their first meeting, Taylor ended Hopkins' ten-year-plus reign as middleweight champ with a split decision win. Hopkins started even slower than in the first fight, 19 punches thrown per round over the first eight rounds and Taylor was busier, throwing 38 per round. As a result, Taylor won seven of the first eight rounds on one card and six of eight on another. The third judge had the fight even thru eight.

As Taylor faded, Hopkins stepped on the gas, outlanding Taylor 56-23 in total punches over the last four rounds. Despite outlanding Taylor 12-5 in total punches in round twelve, judge Duane Ford gave the round to Jermain, depriving Hopkins of a title-saving draw.

Overall, Taylor went 86 of 453 (19%) to 96 of just 326 (29%) for Hopkins, who had a 78-50 edge in power connects. Taylor fought throughout the fight with a lacerated scalp that reportedly required 15 stitches.

In December of '04, after feasting on a steady diet of blown up junior middleweights, Taylor silenced some of his critics by wearing down former middleweight champ William Joppy over twelve rounds.

Joppy, who was softened up by Bernard Hopkins one year earlier (Hopkins landed over 400 punches), had his moments early with the jab. He averaged 32 jabs thrown per round over the first twelve minutes, outlanding the Taylor 42-34 in that department. He just didn't throw anything behind the jab, landing just 14 power shots in four rounds. A Taylor left hook in round five dropped Joppy, who went into survival mode the rest of the fight. Joppy managed to land 35% of his jabs, but he was too preoccupied with Taylor's power, averaging less than 15 jabs thrown per round over the last eight rounds.

Wright reportedly came off his sick bed last December to decision Australian whirlwind Sam Soliman, who threw a CompuBox middleweight record 1260 total punches (105 per round). With Winky being Winky, Soliman missed over 1,000 of those offerings, as Wright outlanded Sam 300-174 in total punches.

The less-than-100% Wright averaged just 54 total punches per round, but cranked it up for the championship rounds, averaging 64 thrown per round over the last five rounds. He closed the show by throwing 70 punches in round 12, his high for the fight. Wright also averaged 26 jabs per round, landing 34%. Soliman landed just 14% of his total punches.

Seven months earlier, the 9-5 'dog, Winky totally dominated Tito Trinidad, outlanding him 262-58 in total punches. This was the same Tito that landed 55 punches in the fifth round alone vs. the absorbent Ricardo Mayorga. Wright kept his vaunted jab in Tito's face all night, landing it 185 of 588 times (31%). Felix was so preoccupied with Wright's stick that he managed to land an average of 5 total punches all night, landing in single digits in every round. Wright landed an average of 22 punches per round. The middleweight average is 19 punches landed per round and 56 thrown.

Winky's well-placed jab allowed him to land 46% of his power shots vs. the befuddled Trinidad, who fought as if he'd never seen a southpaw in his 15-year, 43 fight career. Tito won just one round one 2 of the judges cards and was shutout on the third.

How dominant was Wright defensively vs. Trinidad? Floyd Mayweather outlanded Arturo Gatti 168-41, an average of 28 punches landed for Mayweather, 7 for Gatti. Mayweather vs. Victoriano Sosa? Mayweather landed 21 per round, Sosa 7. One would have to search deep into the CompuBox archives, back to Roy Jones' 6/5/99 shellacking of Reggie Johnson to surpass Wright's masterful display of D. Jones landed 23 punches per round vs. Johnson, who landed a measley 4 per round. Even Kirk Johnson landed 5 punches per round in his miserable performance vs. Vitali Klitschko. In another stinker, Henry 'The Grabber' Akinwande found the range 6 times per round vs. Lennox Lewis, before getting dq'd in round 5.

What makes Wright's performance even more impressive is the fact that none of the above outclassed fighters ever were, or will be in the same league as Trinidad, a future first ballot Hall of Famer.

Prior to Winky's whitewashing of Trinidad, he scored successive decision wins over Shane Mosley (Winks last knockout was in February of '02- a 5th round stoppage of Jason Papillion). In March of '04, after rejecting a reported $12-million offer to fight the rubber match with Oscar De La Hoya, Mosley instead looked to unify the junior middleweight title vs. Wright-wrong!! Wright easily outpointed the 2-1 favorite Sugar. He averaged 35 jabs per round and also landed 48% of his power shots. He outlanded Shane 260-166.

A 9-5 favorite in the rematch, Wright again won the fight with his jab, landing 32% of his 32 jabs per round. Mosley fought a more spirited fight-Winky did not. Wright was surprisingly behind on 2 cards thru 9 rounds, then stepped it up, outlanding Mosley 73-34 over the last nine minutes, sweeping those rounds on one card and winning 2 of the last 3 on the other 2 cards to retain his title via majority decision. Mosley landed just 26% of his total punches in the two fights, while Wright landed nearly half his power shots in the two victories over Sugarless. By comparison, Mosley landed 50% of his power shots in his two wins over Oscar De La Hoya and landed 60% of his power shots in his seven lightweight title fights tracked by CompuBox.

Winky defeated JC Candelo and Angel Hernandez in his 2003 fights, picking off 80% of their 2148 total punches in the process!!! He averaged 38 jabs per round in the two wins. Wright frustrated Bronco McKart so badly in their third fight that McKart lost 5 points for low blows in eight rounds before getting dq'd- and he didn't protest the stoppage.

The fight Winky'd love to have back occurred in December of '99, vs. the then undefeated, unfocused Fernando Vargas. He faded down the stretch (maybe it was Vargas' late pressure), throwing just 57 punches in round 10, 54 in round 11 and just 25 in the 12th. Vargas rallied, throwing 99 in the 10th and 85 in the 12th to retain his title via majority decision.

In August of '94, he challenged Julio Cesar Vazquez for his 154-lb title in France. In an odd fight, Wright was down five times-his only knockdowns as a pro (he says three were slips), yet won 6 rounds on 2 cards and 5 on another card-dropping a 113-110, 115-110, 114-110 decision to Vazquez.

Taylor's spent six weeks with new trainer Manny Steward sparring at Detroit's legendary Kronk Gym. Steward, fresh off his masterful job of training Wladimir Klitschko for his dominating win over another slick southpaw, Chris Byrd, has Taylor concentrating more on speed and neutralizing Wright's very effective jab.

Taylor reportedly had his way in sparring sessions with Kronk's "uncrowned" middlweight champ, Andy Lee, a former amateur star with a 2-0 professional record. So? What would Winky do against Lee?

Winky's trained in Summerlin, Nevada, 15 miles outside of Las Vegas. Wright's weight is good, but there are rumors that he's spent his evenings in Vegas chillin' with his boys. It's hard to believe that Wright would possibly take Taylor lightly despite his trainer Dan Birmingham's comment that the fight was between a man (Wright) and a boy (Taylor). That line upset Steward, who surely let Taylor know what was said.

Can Taylor get past Winky's steady, accurate jab. Wright averaged 36 jabs thrown per round vs.Soliman, Trinidad & Mosley twice, landing 33%, The average middleweight throws 24 jabs per round and lands 25%. If Winky lands the jab, he usually lands his power shots behind it. He landed 51% of his non-jabs (13% higher than the middleweight avg.) vs. the three mentioned opponents, who landed just 18% of their total punches and an average of just 2, count 'em 2 jabs per round!!

That same jab is the punch that Taylor's entire offense works off. Can that punch be an effective weapon for the orthodox Taylor vs. the southpaw Wright? Byrd didn't move vs. Wladimir and Wladdy's jab was a factor. Wright doesn't figure to move either, but his jab is much more effective than Byrd's ever was.

Can Winky deal with Taylor's overall strength and determination? Remember, Winky, who started his career at junior middleweight, was much bigger naturally than Trinidad and Mosley, who began his career as a lightweight - and Mosley had his moments in their rematch.

After watching Hopkins totally dominate Tarver, there's new found respect for Taylor and his performances vs. Bernard, who probably wishes he had that extra 14 pounds of muscle to deal with Taylor in their two fights.

They're fighting in Memphis, practically Taylor's backyard. Who gets the close rounds and there figures to be plenty of them? If you buy into the Manny Steward factor, then his experience and knowledge alone could win one or two rounds for Jermain, possibly the difference in the fight. That's if Winky cooperates.

Taylor, by close, maybe controversial split decision, but a total schooling of Taylor by Wright would not be shocking.

PAST FIGHTS:

TAYLOR W 12 BERNARD HOPKINS II

More of same, Hopkins averaged 25 punches thrown, 7 connected in rounds 1-6, landing single digits in each frame. Taylor 25 thrown, 7 connected in first 6 rounds. Taylor threw 81 less punches over first 10 rounds in rematch- then threw 44 total punches in pivotal 11th, his high for the fight. Taylor also more efficient with jab in rematch, throwing 55 less and landing nearly twice as many (64-36).

TAYLOR W 12 BERNARD HOPKINS I

Hopkins averaged 19 punches thrown, 5 connected, Taylor 38 thrown, 9 connected thru 8 rounds, the difference in the fight as Hopkins outlanded 56-23 over the last 4 rounds. Taylor landed in single digits in 10 of the 12 rounds, Hopkins landed single digits in rounds 1-8.

TAYLOR W 12 WILLIAM JOPPY

Joppy outlanded Taylor 42-34 in jab department over first 4 rounds, but landed just 14 power shots behind that stick. Taylor averaged 25 jabs per round and landed 53% of his power shots, outlanding Joppy, who was in full survival mode, 99-16 in that department over the last 8 rounds.

WRIGHT W 12 SAM SOLIMAN

Good news, Soliman threw a CompuBox middleweight record 1260 total punches. Bad news, Winky blocked over 1000 of them. Outlanded the Australian whirlwind 300-174 in total punches. Winky landed 34% of his 26 jabs per round, while Soliman landed 14% of his total punches.

WRIGHT W 12 FELIX TRINIDAD

Outlanded Tito 262-58 in total punches. That's an average of 5 landed punches per round for Felix, who landed 55 punches in the fifth round alone vs. Ricardo Mayorga. Mr. Wright also got off 588 jabs (49 per round), landing 31%. Tito landed a miserable 10% of his total punches.

WRIGHT W 12 SHANE MOSLEY

Behind on 2 cards thru 9 rounds, Wright outlanded Shane 73-34 over last 3 rounds to secure his second straight win over Mosley, who landed just 26% of his total punches in the two fights. The same Mosley who landed 50% of his power shots in his two wins over Oscar De La Hoya

WRIGHT W 12 SHANE MOSLEY

Outlanded Shane 250-166 in total punches. Averaged 35 jabs per round and landed nearly half his power shots (non-jabs). Shane landed just 27% of his total punches.