BERT SUGAR'S PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS:
TARVER VS. HOPKINS

June 5, 2006 - by Bert Sugar

STRENGTHS OF EACH FIGHTER
Antonio Tarver

--Tarver has both size and height on his side...(However, questions about his weight abound, scuttlebutt having it that he weighed as much as 218 during his filming of the Rocky Balboa movie where he played the role of Mason "The Line" Dixon and has had some difficulty getting down to 175, just as Roy Jones Jr. did after he had gone up in weight to fight John Ruiz and then came down to defend his light heavy title.)

--Tarver uses both his height and reach effectively setting up his devastating left cross with an exceptionally long right jab.

--Tarver is extremely self confident --as he proved in his classic line to Roy Jones Jr. during the pre-fight instructions "What's your excuse this time, Roy?") Now he seeks to gain more respect and prove himself to be more than just the best light heavyweight in the world by beating Hopkins as he did Jones...


Bernard Hopkins

--A classic old-school fighter, Hopkins fights from a wide stance with both hands held high and chin low, giving Tarver little if anything to hit, especially with a solid shot.

--Hopkins has an usual way of getting inside. Most fighters step forward behind their jab and look to throw power punches. Hopkins steps forward while throwing right crosses or left hooks, tending to confuse his opponent.

--Hopkins punches hard with both hands, particularly to the body, where Tarver is vulnerable, hooking under and over with his left and wearing opponents down.

--Over the course of his career Hopkins has faced a better quality of opponents than has Tarver, giving him both the experience and the confidence he can handle anything thrown at him by Tarver.

--Hopkins is highly motivated, seeking to do something even his idol the great Sugar Ray Robinson couldn't do, win the light heavyweight title and round out his legacy.

WEAKNESSES OF EACH FIGHTER
Antonio Tarver

--Tarver tends to drop his right hand after throwing a jab and stops after throwing his left, giving Hopkins, an excellent counter puncher, an opportunity to counter.

--Tarver has a tendency to give away rounds, at times fighting in spurts and at others waiting to land his left, his knockout punch.

--With a tall, angular body, described by one observer as being so thin he "looked like he worked in an olive factory dragging the pimento through," Tarver gives Hopkins an inviting target for body punches, Hopkins being more than proficient in landing same (here see Oscar De La Hoya) and Tarver susceptible to being hurt there (see first Eric Harding fight).

--Tarver's stamina has been questioned in the past. And if stamina proves to be a problem in the later rounds -- Tarver having gone 12 rounds fewer times than Hopkins -- it gives Hopkins an advantage down the stretch in the so-called "championship rounds," where he. came on strong in both fights versus Taylor.

Bernard Hopkins

--Although Hopkins has more knockouts than Tarver, those came at the middleweight (160 lb.) level. He cannot afford to trade firepower with the naturally heavier and heavier-hitting Tarver.

--Hopkins is notoriously slow to start, giving up the early rounds and the early momentum to his opponent, a foolhardy strategy that cost him in both Taylor fights and might here again if this fight goes to a decision.

--Slow to get his punches off, speed from the outside bothers Hopkins.

-- Hopkins' size is supposedly his biggest weakness. Traditionally a 160-pounder, he has fought at light heavy only once before in his career--that a loss in his first pro fight. But he has been training for his fight with Tarver with fitness guru Mackie Shilstone who has earned credentials with oak leaf clusters for his work in preparing Michael Spinks for Larry Holmes and Roy Jones Jr. for John Ruiz, both winning efforts.

--At 4l going-on-Social Security Hopkins fought only the last six rounds in his two fights against Jermain Taylor, which may be explained more by his conserving his aging energy than in just pacing himself. However, there is an asterisk to the question of how Hopkins' age might affect him: Antonio Tarver is not exactly a spring chicken at the ripe ol' age of 37.

WHAT EACH FIGHTER MUST DO TO WIN
Antonio Tarver

--Tarver must take advantage of Hopkins characteristically slow start and begin applying pressure from the git-go.

--Tarver cannot afford to look for the one-punch knockout and fight only in spurts, especially in the early going when he has the opportunity to pile up points on the slow-starting Hopkins.

--Tarver must exploit his much longer reach, keeping Hopkins at long range and not let him get inside which is where Hopkins wants to be.

Bernard Hopkins

--Hopkins cannot afford to wait 'til the later rounds to get into the fight, but must alter his recent pattern and begin his Beguine earlier.

--Rather than remain on the outside where he stands a chance of being impaled by Tarver's looong left, Hopkins needs to take advantage of Tarvers tendency to drop his right and counter as a means of working his way inside where he works best.

--Hopkins should use lateral movement, side-to-side, to make it difficult for Tarver to set up his punches and try to move Tarver backward where he has experienced difficulty in the past.