COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS:
TARVER VS. HOPKINS

June 7, 2006
- by Bob Canobbio/Compubox

Tarver, 24-3, 18 ko's, currently the best light heavyweight in the business without a major belt, nearly a 3-1 favorite as he defends vs. the 41-year-old Hopkins, 46-4-1, 32 ko's, who is making the move up from the middleweight division he ruled for ten years before successive controversial losses to Jermain Taylor.

Tarver, 37, hasn't fought since last October, when he decisioned the reluctant Roy Jones in their rubber match. Clearly looking to go the distance and erase the memory of his one-punch ko loss to Tarver in May of '04, Jones did more posing than fighting, averaging just 27 punches thrown per round. Tarver responded by throwing 52 per round, outlanding Jones 158-85 in total punches. Tarver nearly had Jones out again in the 11th round before seemingly punching himself out after landing 29 of 72 power shots in the round. Tarver also averaged 23 jabs per round for the fight. The scorecards read Tarver 116-112 twice & Tarver 117-111.

In May of '04 Tarver, a 4-1 'dog, shocked the boxing world with a second round, one-punch ko of Jones, who won a controversial majority decision over Tarver six months earlier. This time it was Jones coming down in weight, following his decision win over John Ruiz for a share of the heavyweight title. In that first meeting, Tarver outlanded Jones 120-111 in total punches, but was outlanded 26-17 in power punches in the pivotal 11th & 12th rounds. The tentative Tarver threw a total of just 12 power shots in rounds three thru five and landed just 2 of 22 non-jabs in the 6th, as Jones swept those rounds on all cards- the difference in the fight.

After Roy III, Tarver gained 35 pounds in preparation for his role as heavyweight champ Mason Dixon in Sylvester Stallone's Rocky 6. While at heavyweight, Team Tarver attempted to get another aging former champ in the ring, Mike Tyson. Iron Bite reportedly turned down a $10 million offer and the focus shifted to Hopkins.

Four months prior to the rubber match with Jones, Tarver avenged another controversial decision loss. This time the opponent was Glen Johnson. In their first fight Tarver, despite outlanding Johnson 296-217, found himself on the short end of a split decision verdict. He took off too many rounds and wasn’t consistent enough with his punch output. He threw just 36 total punches in round five after getting off 87 in the fourth. His count was 80 in round nine, then just 38 in the tenth. He was even outlanded in jabs, 77-76 by the smaller, former middleweight Johnson, who threw 71 more than Tarver.

Tarver fought more consistently in the rematch, averaging 71 punches thrown per round. (The light heavyweight average is 54 total punches thrown per round and 22 jabs thrown per round). He also averaged 26 jabs per round, outlanding Johnson 69-14 in that department. Tarver's steady jab also blunted Johnson's attack. The Road Warrior averaged just 47 total punches thrown per round in the rematch after averaging 66 thrown per round in the first fight. Tarver also had a 69-14 edge in jab connects, throwing 140 more than Johnson. Tarver did slump to just 48 total punches thrown in the last round, but Johnson was more fatigued than he was, throwing just 38 total punches.

Hopkins is attempting to achieve what his idol Ray Robinson could not - jump directly from middleweight to light heavyweight and win a title (although there's no real title at stake here and there was no super middleweight division when Sugar Ray was fighting).

On June 25, 1952, Robinson was leading on all scorecards through 13 rounds in his challenge of Joey Maxim for the light heavyweight championship before collapsing from heat exhaustion in round 14. For the record, only Dick Tiger (W 15 Jose Torres), Tommy Hearns (W 12 Virgil Hill), Mike McCallum (W 12 Jeff Harding) and Reggie Johnson (KO 5 William Guthrie) were successful jumping from middleweight directly to light heavyweight and winning a title. Like Hopkins, none were reigning middleweight champs when they struck light heavyweight gold.

Middleweight champs Mickey Walker (L 15 Maxie Roselbloom), Bobo Olson (KO by 3 Archie Moore), Terry Downes (KO by 11 Willie Pastrano) and Frank Tate (L 12 Virgil Hill twice) were unsuccessful in their attempts to jump directly from the middleweight division to a light heavyweight title fight. Olson & Robinson were the reigning middleweight champs when they challenged for the light heavyweight title.

Hopkins lost consecutive decisions to the young lion Taylor because he didn't punch enough early in either fight.

He averaged just 19 punches THROWN and 5 landed over the first eight rounds of their first fight, losing seven of those rounds on one card and six on another. Hopkins then outlanded Taylor 56-23 in total punches over the last 4 rounds, averaging 44 punches thrown per round and 14 landed. Too little, too late? In the pivotal 12th round, Hopkins outlanded Taylor 12-5 in power shots and had Jermain holding on for most of the frame. Surprisingly, judge Duane Ford (115-113 T) scored the round for Taylor, depriving Hopkins of a title-saving draw. Other scores: Roth: 116-112 H, Smith 115-113 T. Overall, Hopkins landed 96 of 326 total punches (27 punches thrown per round) to 86 of 453 (38 thrown per round) for Taylor. Hopkins, bolstered by his strong finish, had a 78-50 edge in power connects. Taylor, who landed 40% of his jabs in his previous four fights, landed just 14% vs. Hopkins.

In the rematch with Taylor, Hopkins averaged just six more punches thrown per round over the first six rounds and as a result found himself down six rounds to love on one card and 5-1 on the other two cards. He then stepped on the gas in rounds seven thru ten, outlanding Taylor 45-16 in power shots, sweeping those rounds on one card and winning 3 of 4 on the other two cards to pull within two points on all 3 cards. Then the pivotal 11th- he was outlanded just 13-12 by Taylor, but as was the case in their previous 22 rounds of action(?), Jermain was busier, throwing 44 total punches to 36 for Bernard. Taylor won the round on all 3 cards. Hopkins then got off 54 punches in the 12th, his high total for the fight- again, too little, too late. After 12 rounds he again outlanded Taylor in total punches 130-124, throwing 371 to Taylor's 391. The difference in the rematch was Taylor's jab. He landed 64 of 209 (31%) after landing just 36 of 264 (14%) in the first fight. Taylor also started slower, conserving his energy for the stretch. He threw 44 punches in round eleven and 40 in round twelve, his high totals for the fight. All cards read 115-113 Taylor.

Tarver's had to drop nearly 35 pounds since starring as Mason Dixon in Sylvester Stallone's Rocky 6. That can't be too much fun, especially for a 37 year-old. Hopkins also noted that we all know what happened to the last fighter that made a movie, then fought a fight (Lennox Lewis in Ocean's Eleven before heading off to So. Africa where he was ko'd by Hasim Rahman).

Hopkins is 9-0 in his career vs. southpaws, obviously none as big or with the pop of Tarver. In fact, Hopkins' two biggest wins (Trinidad KO 12 & delaHoya KO 9) came against fighter's coming up in weight. Tarver's been a light heavyweight his entire 9 1/2 year career. Hopkins was once a light heavyweight, in his pro debut. He weighed 177 lbs and lost a four-round decision to Clinton Mitchell. He layed off 16 months and came back a middleweight, where remained until Tarver.

Hopkins has hired former middleweight champ John David Jackson, now a trainer, whom Hopkins ko'd in seven rounds on April 19, 1997. Jackson, a southpaw, sparred with Hopkins early in both fighter's careers and Jackson also sparred with Tarver while training for Roy Jones.

Fitness guru Mackie Shilstone, who assisted Michael Spinks in his weight gain before he upset Larry Holmes in 1985 and Roy Jones for his move to heavyweight vs. John Ruiz, is also working with Hopkins. They expect to add 10-12 pounds of muscle to Hopkins' frame.

Will the extra weight be a hindrance to Hopkins? Remember the costly slow starts vs. Taylor? Will the weight loss have an effect on Tarver in the later rounds? He punched himself out in the 11th round of the third Jones fight and took rounds off in the first Glen Johnson fight.

Traditionally, Tarver's the busier fighter and hits harder. Hopkins thinks he's mentally tougher and will reach deep into his bag of tricks in an attempt to take Antonio out of his game. Hopkins will try to steal the early rounds then attempt to break Tarver down in the later rounds. He's got to let his hands go early though, or risk falling too far behind as he did in both Taylor fights. Hopkins was tentative vs. Taylor, why would he open up vs. the bigger Tarver? Taylor, at least 15 lbs lighter than Tarver, took Hopkins' best shots. Shouldn't Tarver?

Tarver by unanimous decision in a less-than scintillating affair.

PAST FIGHTS:

TARVER W 12 ROY JONES

Outlanded Reluctant Roy 158-85 in total punches, as Mr. Jones averaged just 27 punches thrown per round. Tarver responded by throwing 52 per round. Tarver landed 29 of 72 power shots in 11th round, the most power shots landed vs. Jones in 27 fights of his tracked by CompuBox. Tarver also had 51-11 edge in jab connects.

TARVER W 12 GLEN JOHNSON

Avenged controversial loss to Johnson by outlanding Road Warrior 218-149 in total punches. Tarver averaged 71 punches thrown per round and outlanded Johnson in jabs 69-14, averaging 26 thrown per round. Smaller Johnson outlanded Tarver in jabs 77-76 in first fight, with Tarver holding 296-217 edge in total connects.

TARVER L 12 JONES

Outlanded Roy 120-111 in total punches, but Roy had 94-73 edge in power connects, including 26-17 edge in pivotal 11th & 12th rounds. Tarver threw just 12 power shots in rounds three thru five and landed just 2 of 22 power shots in the sixth,as Roy swept those rounds on all cards- the difference in the fight.

HOPKINS L 12 JERMAIN TAYLOR

Gave away too many early rounds, averaging just 19 punches thrown, 5 connected over first 8 rounds. Then outlanded Taylor 56-23 in total punches over last four rounds, averaging 44 punches thrown and 14 landed in last 12 minutes. Had 12-5 edge in connects in last round, yet Duane Ford gave round to Taylor, depriving Hopkins of title-saving draw.

HOPKINS L 12 TAYLOR

Gave away too many early rounds, averaging just 19 punches thrown, 5 connected over first 8 rounds. Then outlanded Taylor 56-23 in total punches over last four rounds, averaging 44 punches thrown and 14 landed in last 12 minutes. Had 12-5 edge in connects in last round, yet Duane Ford gave round to Taylor, depriving Hopkins of title-saving draw.

HOPKINS KO 9 OSCAR DELAHOYA

Chess match over first 4 rounds. Hopkins averaged just 19 jabs thrown in opening 12 minutes- then 32 per round in rounds five thru eight, outlanding Oscar 39-18 in power shots in those rounds. Had 99-82 edge in total connects