COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS:
BARRERA VS. JUAREZ

May 17, 2006
- by Bob Canobbio/Compubox

Barrera, 61-4, 42 ko's, nearly a 4-1 favorite in defense of his 130-lb title vs. Juarez, 25-1, 18 ko's.

Barrera was originally set to fight lightweight champ Jesus Chavez in March before Chavez injured an arm in training. Juarez was a sparring partner for Chavez in preparation for Barrera and was not Barrera's first choice as a substitute opponent. When Barrera-Juan Diaz couldn't be made, the fight was offered to Juarez.

Last September, Marco totally schooled over-achiever Robbie Peden, outlanding the Australian 300-87. In Floyd Mayweather-like fashion, Barrera held Peden to single digits connects in EVERY round. Barrera landed 44% of his 60 punches per round, while Peden offered just 42 per frame. Barrera sent Peden packing by landing 51 of 94 punches in the last round. Those 51 connects by Barrera represented 59% of Peden's total connects for the fight.

Barrera won his version of the 130-lb title in the rubber match (they've fought at 3 different weights) vs. hated rival Erik Morales in November of '04. Barrera took full advantage of Morales' sluggish start to win 4 of the first 6 rounds on 2 cards and 5 of the first 6 on the third card, outlanding Morales nearly 2-1 thru the first six frames. Morales got himself back into the fight in the middle rounds before Barrera rallied in 9 & 10, outlanding El Terrible 33-19 in power shots.

The last 2 rounds (given to Morales by all 3 judges) were reminiscent of their epic first fight, as Barrera landed 48 of 88 total punches in round 11 & 28 of 81 in the finale. Morales went 39 of 106 in the 11th & 26 of 89 in the 12th. Overall, Marco landed 49% of his power shots and outjabbed Morales 67-49, averaging 26 per round to 20 per for Morales. The scoring went: 115-113 B; 115-114 B & 114-114. Plans for a fourth meeting were short-circuited following Morales' tenth round ko loss to Manny Pacquiao in January.

Marco could have been arrested for assault after his first defense of the 130-lb title, last April, vs. woefully overmatched Mzonke Fana, who was last seen on the canvas in round 2, stiffer than a mackerel at the Fulton Fish Market.

Marco, a 4-1 favorite, was nearly chased out of the Alamodome ring in November of 2003 by Manny Pacquiao, who outlanded him 309-172. Marco was down in rounds 3 & 11, as Pac Man landed 30 or more punches in 6 of the 11 rounds.

Barrera returned to the ring seven months after the PacMan shellacking to do a similar paint job on former 122-lb champ Paulie Ayala. He outlanded Paulie 231-80, landing 51% of his power shots. He also threw 13 jabs per round vs. the southpaw (not usually an effective weapon for an orthodox fighter vs. a southpaw) before the and came (from a body shot) in round 10.

Juarez has won two straight (KO 3 vs. the 37-8-1 Rey Hurtado & KO 4 Backlin Medrano, 9-2-1) since getting outworked by late substitute Humberto Soto last August. Soto, filling in for champ Injin Chi, took the fight on 13 days notice and proceeded to throw twice as many punches as Rocky (1006-571), outlanding him 249-209. Maybe Juarez was bummed about the title shot vs. Chi going away, but 48 punches thrown per round wasn't going to get the job done vs. the bigger Soto, a natural 130-lber. Juarez threw over 50 punches in a round in just five rounds, and never threw more than 64 in any frame. Soto, who averaged 42 JABS thrown per round, lost two points for hitting behind the head and still won by scores of 114-113 twice and 114-112.

In December of '04, Juarez blasted out faded former champ Guty Espadas in round two. Juarez buzzed Espadas late in round one, then finished the job in round two with his patented left hook that broke Espadas' nose.

Five months earlier, Juarez averaged just 34 punches per round enroute to a unanimous 12-round decision win over Zahir 'The Grabber' Raheem, who lost three points for excessive holding. Raheem, a victim of some Texas-style home cooking, was down in round four and looking for a place to hide before getting his act together. He outlanded the Houston-born Juarez 67-38 over the next four rounds to get himself back in the fight, averaging 69 punches thrown per round over that 12-minute span. He then averaged just 58 thrown per round the rest of the way. Juarez had a slim 65-57 edge in connects in those rounds- enough to impress the judges who voted Juarez 115-109; 113-111 & 114-110. Overall, Juarez landed 146 of 409 (36%) total punches to 156 of 726 (21%) for Raheem. Juarez had a slim 96-91 edge in power connects, throwing 251 to Raheem's 349. Take away the knockdown and the three penalty points and the fights' a draw.

Juarez has been down once in his career. That was in the second round of his decision win over the then 19-7 Joe Morales in April of '04. Rocky recovered to land 45% of his 50 punches per round.

Juarez didn't fare too well against the last 130-lber he faced (Soto) and now he's moving up in weight to challenge the consummate professional fighter in Barrera, who’s been inactive for eight months. Juarez isn't busy enough to outbox Barrera and doesn't throw enough combinations to wear down Marco. In the fights Barrera's lost, he was outboxed by Junior Jones, who averaged 50 jabs thrown per round before dropping him with a right hand. Both Morales & Pacquiao averaged more than 70 punches thrown per round in their wins over Barrera. Marco may start slow, then shake off the rust and begin to carry the fight to Juarez, whose best chance is to land his patented left hook. It may land, but it's one punch at a time for Rocky, while Barrera lands combinations. Marco by unanimous decision.

PAST FIGHTS:

BARRERA W 12 ROBBIE PEDEN

Outlanded Peden 300-87 in total punches, landing 41% to just 17% for Peden. Held Peden to single digit connects in EVERY round, a feat accomplished by Floyd Mayweather vs. Diego Corrales and Roy Jones vs. Reggie Johnson. Barrera landed 51 total punches in last round - 59% of Peden's total connects for the fight.

BARRERA W 12 ERIK MORALES III

Outlanded Morales 123-69 over first six rounds. Then 33-19 in power shots in rounds nine and ten. Overall, landed 290 of 765 total punches (38%) to 231 of 808 (29%) for Morales. Also landed 49% of his power shots (223 of 451) to 182 of 572 (32%) for Morales. Also had 67-49 edge in jab connects, averaging 26 thrown per round.

BARRERA KO by 11 MANNY PACQUIAO

4-1 favorite, outlanded 309-172 by Pac Man, who also had 257-101 edge in power connects. Pacquiao landed 30 or more punches in 6 of 11 rounds. Barrera landed 20 or more in only 4 rounds.

JUAREZ L 12 HUMBERTO SOTO

Avg'd just 48 punches per round. Outlanded 249-209 by Soto, who threw 1006 total punches to 571 for Juarez. Juarez threw over 50 punches in just five rounds while Soto averaged 42 jabs per round!

JUAREZ W 12 ZAHIR RAHEEM

Avg'd just 34 punches per round. Landed 146 of 409 (36%) for 156 of 726 (21%) for Raheem. Rocky had 96-91 edge in power connects, throwing 252 to Raheem's 349.

JUAREZ W 10 JOE MORALES

Avg'd 50 punches per round, landing 45% of his power shots. Dropped and badly hurt in 2nd round by Morales, who avg'd 96 punches per round.