COMPUBOX PRE-FIGHT ANALYSIS:
DE LA HOYA VS. MAYORGA
May 4, 2006
- by Bob Canobbio/Compubox
Golden Boy, 37-4, 29 ko's, a 3-1 favorite, returning after 1 year, 229-day layoff, the longest of his 13 1/2 year career vs. the abrasive Mayorga, who decisioned Michele Piccirillo last August to win a 154-lb title.
Attempting to become undisputed middleweight champ, Oscar was ahead on one card (77-75-Hopkins 79-73 & 78-74 on other two) through eight rounds in September of 2004 before a well-placed Executioner body shot in round nine dropped him for the count. An underdog for the first (and only) time in his career, he threw just 37 punches per round, landing an average of 10 per frame. Hopkins was cautious as well, landing 12 of 43 per round. Hopkins began to impose his will on Oscar by round six, outlanding him 39-18 in power shots over the next four rounds before the end came at 1:38 of round nine.
Oscar's other middleweight fight was controversial unanimous decision win over the then-unknown Felix Sturm in June of '04. Unmotivated (except for the prospect of earning $10 million as part of a $40 mill, two-fight package) and out-of-shape, he was outlanded 234-188 by Sturm, the happy warrior, who seemed to enjoy every minute in the ring with the Golden Boy. Sturm landed a whopping 52% of his power shots vs. Oscar, who came out blazing, averaging 85 punches per round over the first 4 frames with no effect on the German. He stood toe-to-toe with Sturm, and in doing so allowed the long-armed, counter punching Sturm to landed over 50% of his power shots in seven of the twelve rounds, including 71% in round eleven. The generous judges (Mike Glienna, Dave Moretti and Paul Smith, who'll be scoring delaHoya-Mayorga) knowing a cash-cow when they see one, all voted 115-113 Oscar.
A 2-1 favorite, De La Hoya dropped to 0-2 vs. Shane Mosley in September of 2003, losing a controversial decision. He outlanded Mosley 221-127 in total punches, bolstered by a 106-33 edge in jab connects. Oscar had just a 115-94 edge in power connects with Mosley landing the harder shots down the stretch as Oscar again faded. Oscar landed an average of 11 of 29 jabs over the first 8 rounds, then just 6 of 20 in the last twelve minutes. As a result, Mosley's power numbers doubled, landing 11 of 26 power shots over the last 5 rounds after hitting on just 5 of 13 in rounds one thru seven. True, Mosley came on late, but how could judge Stanley Christodoulou have the fight even thru six rounds despite Shane landing just 51 TOTAL PUNCHES in 18 minutes to 113 for De La Hoya? Judges Anek Hongtongkam and Duane Ford gave Oscar four of the first six rounds, then just the seventh, as Mosley swept rounds eight thru twelve on their cards. Christodoulou gave Oscar rounds seven and eight- the rest to Mosley. They all scored it 115-113 for Shane.
Prior to their September '02 showdown, the steroid-fueled Fernando Vargas, like Mayorga, berated Oscar every chance he got- though not nearly as vulgar in tone as Mayorga. Vargas backed up his talk early, outlanding Oscar 86-29 in power shots over the first five rounds.
As Vargas began to hit the wall, Oscar rallied, outlanding Fernando 79-45 in total punches over the next 3 rounds, including 31-8 in round eight. Vargas shot his bolt in the ninth, outlanding Oscar 41-26 (32-13 in power shots). A left hook dropped Fernando late in round ten and a final flurry ended the fight at 1:48 of the eleventh. Oscar led on 2 cards (96-94) thru ten, but trailed 97-94 on Patricia Jarman's tally. Oscar averaged 39 jabs per round among his 63 punches per round. Vargas managed just 48 total punches per round.
The ko-happy Oscar dropped a split decision to Mosley in June of 2000. He was outjabbed by Mosley (110-92 in connects, with Mosley throwing 100 more) who was perceived to be the smaller man despite having a longer reach and actually outweighing Oscar. Needing the last round to earn a draw and retain his welterweight title, Oscar was outlanded 45-18 by Shane, the most punches landed in a round by an Oscar opponent in 27 fights tracked by CompuBox.
Nine months earlier, in the richest non-heavyweight fight in history, Oscar backpedaled himself into a majority decision loss to Felix Trinidad. As was the case vs. Mosley II, he landed 97 more punches (143-42 edge in jab connects), with the power punches nearly even. While Oscar circled in the late rounds, Trinidad who was rewarded for coming forward all night, won the last four rounds on one card (115-113 T), three of the last four on another (115-114 T) and four of the last five on the third card (114-114).
The former (and maybe future) street fighter Mayorga, burst onto the boxing scene in January of '03 following his shocking third round ko of Shane Mosley-conqueror Vernon Forrest. The 6-1' dog was outlanded 47-25 in rounds one & two, walking through Forrest's best shots. He dropped the 2002 Fighter of the Year in round three before the end came at 2:06.
They met again six months later as the 2 1/2-1 favorite Forrest attempted to clinch his way to regaining his title. It didn't work, as Forrest landed just 66 power shots all night to 105 for Mayorga, who averaged 44 punches per round to 40 per frame for Forrest. The scoring went 115-114 M; 116-112 M & 114-114.
In December of '03, Mayorga and Cory Spinks met for the undisputed welterweight title. The southpaw Spinks so frustrated Mayorga that he lost two points for hitting after the bell and rabbit punching- costing Mayorga a title-saving draw. Spinks outlanded Mayorga 226-157, as Mayorga averaged 44 punches per round. Scoring: 114-114; 114-112 S; 117-110 S.
Following a 29-month layoff, Tito Trinidad, like De La Hoya, chose Mayorga as his comeback opponent. Mayorga had his moments early vs. the still-rusty Trinidad, landing 19 power shots in round one and 25 in the third. Fighting at middleweight, those shots had no effect on Felix. Mayorga dropped his gloves, inviting some Tito leather to the party and Trinidad obliged, outlanding Mayorga 142-54 power shots over the last four rounds, including 45-9 in round five, much to the delight of the 17,000-plus Tito fans in attendance at Madison Square Garden.
Mayorga was down three times before the end came at 2:39 of round eight. Mayorga was credited with a knockdown in round three after Trinidad's glove touched the canvas.
Last August Mayorga dropped down to 154-lbs and won a vacant title. He decisioned the 35-year-old Italian Michele Piccirillo (44-2), who went 1-1 vs. Cory Spinks, winning their first fight in controversial fashion on his home turf. Spinks returned to the old country 11 months later and took home the title.
Mayorga dropped Piccirillo twice in round two and again in the fourth- then coasted to victory. Mayorga reportedly had trouble making the 154-lb limit and it showed down the stretch as he averaged just 42 punches per round over the last four rounds after averaging 50 per round in the first eight frames. Mayorga had a 102-59 edge in power connects. Piccirillo managed to outland Mayorga 77-38 in jabs, averaging 24 per round. Mayorga landed just 17% of his 19 jabs per round.
After the very, very personal verbal attacks (and a slap to the head) by Mayorga throughout the pre-fight press tour, if De La Hoya's not motivated for this fight, he never will be. "He gotten under my skin, but not into my head," said Oscar. Oscar's too smart and has too much experience in the big fight to get caught up in a street fight with Mayorga. According to trainer Stacy McKinley, Mayorga has trained six weeks for this fight. (has he cut back on his smoking?) He trained just three weeks for the first Forrest fight, four weeks for Trinidad and just three weeks for Piccirillo. Mayorga landed on the comebacking Trinidad early, with no effect, at middleweight. He's now reportedly in the best shape of his life, fighting at a more natural 154-lbs. Look for Mayorga to try to impose his will on Oscar early, but leave something in the tank for the later rounds when delaHoya has been known to fade.
Oscar needs to establish his jab early, but he also needs to get Mayorga's respect in the opening rounds. Mayorga starts fast, wins some early rounds before Oscar shakes off the rust and begins to punish Mayorga with combinations in the middle rounds. Mayorga survives, and holds his own in the later rounds. Not enough, as delaHoya wins a close, unanimous decision and moves onto a potential mega-fight with pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather in his September farewell.
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