SHANE'S LAST ROUNDUP?

February 24, 2006 - by Ron Borges

Sometimes you wonder if fighters believe what they're saying. Or if they even hear what they're saying some times. Shane Mosley is such a fighter and this week has been one of those times.

In the days leading up to Saturday night's crossroads showdown with Fernando Vargas, Mosley has said he "definitely'' is looking for a knockout against the two-time 154-pound champion. Mosley's trainer, John David Jackson, seconded that commotion even more emphatically, saying he "honestly'' does not expect the fight to go the distance because he expects the 34-year-old Mosley will "stop (Vargas) with an accumulation of shots, body and head but mainly body. We have two or three different fight plans for Fernando Vargas. If A doesn't work we go to B. If B doesn't work we got to C. If C doesn't work, we knock this cat out. Debilitate him and knock him out.''

Such talk would be a lot more convincing if it hadn't been nearly half a decade since Shane Mosley knocked anybody down, let alone out. Vargas and his fiercely loyal supporters might be growing a bit concerned about Mosley's punching power if he'd ever at least wobbled a full-blown junior middleweight since moving up into that weight class to chase Oscar De La Hoya, but he hasn't. So how does he arrive at this knockout scenario? Does the phrase wishful thinking come to mind?

Now none of this means Mosley can't win Saturday night. That he can still do. But it's been 4 1/2 years since he stopped welterweight Adrian Stone and in none of the eight intervening fights since has he so much as made an opponent think twice about coming forward, let alone wobbled sideways, so when Mosley talks of knocking out Vargas one must assume he is basing this more on the suspect nature of Vargas' chin than on any new found punching power of his own.

Vargas has been down seven times since Felix Trinidad first showed him the way to the floor barely 30 seconds into their concussive confrontation. That night they both went down but it was Vargas who ultimately went out, a trend that would continue later in his career when he was stopped by De La Hoya in the 11th round of their bloody blood feud.

Vargas has been wobbled and dropped by several other opponents as well so not surprisingly there is a strongly held belief in some boxing corners that although only 28 he is now damaged goods. If Shane Mosley intends to knock him out, he better be.

There are many ways a fighter as fast and technically adept as Mosley could defeat Fernando Vargas. Certainly he could frustrate him with his hand and foot speed and technical proficiency, moving in quickly, pot shooting Vargas, and then fleeing the scene before he has to pay a price for such search-and-destroy raids.

He could out maneuver Vargas, using the former champion's promised aggressiveness against him with his own ring generalship and an adept use of leverage and side-to-side movement that limits Vargas' opportunities to do damage while exposing his vulnerabilities. But the likelihood of Mosley stopping Vargas is slimmer than Kate Moss unless Vargas is more mandible challenged than he has yet appeared.

It is one thing to be floored by Felix Trinidad or stopped by Oscar De La Hoya. It's quite another to be knocked out by someone who admits that "welterweight is my home.'' Although Mosley has fought four times before at 154, he's only 2-1-1 in those outings and he didn't come close to hurting Winky Wright in their two confrontations, although he was hurt several times himself in their first meeting.

That difference in strength against bigger men convinced Mosley that, "I will be a welterweight for the remainder of my career...I think welterweight is where I will stay.'' That is an exceedingly good career path for Mosley (41-4) because he stopped five of the first six welterweights he faced after leaving behind his domination of the lightweight division and was 8-2 in that weight class, his two losses both coming against Vernon Forrest because of a stylistic problem rather than a strength one, a problem he simply could not overcome. The problem for him this time out is different. It is that Fernando Vargas is no welterweight.

He is a full blown 154-pound fighter, a man who has been working with great success at that weight throughout his professional career.

Vargas may no longer be what he once was but only Trinidad and De La Hoya have ever stopped him and there is no comparison between their punching power and Mosley's. Fact is, Vargas has knocked out 22 of the 26 men he's beaten at 154 on his way to a 26-2 record so if there's any knocking out to be done it would seem he's the one likely to be doing it.

None of that means Vargas is anything more than even money to beat Mosley but when he offered to bet Mosley $100,000 at Thursday's final pre-fight press conference in Las Vegas it should not have been over the fight's outcome. If Fernando Vargas was risking smart money he would have bet Mosley that the fight would go the distance because the only way it won't is if Vargas stops the smaller Mosley. If that happens he could afford to lose $100,000 because he'll make it all back and then some in his next HBO appearance.

That is unless John David Jackson is right about one thing. If Mosley's trainer is basing all this brave talk of knockouts not on his fighter's punching power at all but rather on the damaged condition of Vargas' own chin then, and only then, might he be on to something.

"I think a lot of people that Trinidad faced were shot directly after the fight,'' Jackson said, hinting that he lumps Vargas among them. "I think Vargas came back and fought some pretty good fights after being physically beaten up like he was..but...Trinidad physically beat him up. De La Hoya mentally beat him up. The only thing left for Shane is to bury him completely. To spiritually beat him up.

"The consensus is that Shane will outbox him but Shane says he wants to knock this kid out, whether it be with one punch or by setting him up.

If Shane Mosley truly expects to walk into the Mandalay Bay Events Center and do to Fernando Vargas what he has done to exactly no one for nearly five years, his trainer better be right about that. The damage better already have been done because if it hasn't been, Shane Mosley isn't likely to create any on his own Saturday night.

He might well outbox and outfox Fernando Vargas, who at times can be his own worst enemy in the ring with wild-eyed aggressiveness that can lead him into trouble, but knock him out? Even Mosley probably knew better than that even when he was in the midst of talking about it.