ADVICE TO OSCAR: LET HIM COME

September 8, 2004 - by William Dettloff

Nobody's paying me to give advice to Oscar De La Hoya in advance of his September 18 world middleweight title fight against Bernard Hopkins, but I'm going to give it anyway: Let him come to you. Be happy when he charges you. Don't worry about getting his respect. Be happy for every second he's breathing down your neck and rushing in with those overhand rights he favors. Let him come.

When the first bell rings, Oscar, take two steps backwards and circle. Don't think about stepping forward. There's no need to prove you're a real middleweight. No need to let Hopkins know you can punch. In fact, if you get a chance to sting him, don't do it. Let him believe you can't hurt him. Don't worry that people will say you're running like you did against Trinidad. In fact, run. Run all you like. Run like the wind. Do that and punch a little in between and you'll have Hopkins right where you want him.

Maybe this seems silly to you. How can Oscar win if he runs? Won't Hopkins walk through him? He has to make Hopkins respect him, doesn't he? He has to hurt the bigger guy, right? Really, as unlikely as it seems, De La Hoya's best chance at winning, if he could do it, would be to back Hopkins up, wouldn't it? Do to Hopkins what Hopkins is supposed to do to him. Turn the tables if he can. He has to do something big, right? He can't just let come in at him, can he?

Yes he can. In fact, that's exactly what he should do. In the few fights when Hopkins has struggled, when he's looked ordinary, when he's lost, it's been when he had to chase the other guy. It hasn't been every time, because a lot of the guys he's chased haven't been very good movers (just because someone moves against Hopkins doesn't mean he's a good mover). But on the whole, when Hopkins has to chase you he doesn't like it.

Oh, he can do it. He did it most recently against Carl Daniels and Morrade Hakkar, for example. But he didn't look great against either of them. It's because they didn't come to him the way, say, Robert Allen did. That's the way Hopkins likes it. When you back him up. When he can walk you into stuff and grind you up inside. That's his game. Despite the tough-guy talk and intimidating presence, he's not a puncher. It's not who he is.

Ask yourself: what was Hopkins' best career performance? His kayo of Felix Trinidad. And he whipped Trinidad not by out-toughing him or out slugging him, but by outsmarting and outboxing him. He was patient and smart and he took his time and broke Trinidad down little by little and when he knew he had nothing to worry about, then he took him out. That's not the way a puncher does it. That's the way a surgeon does it. And that's what Hopkins is.

On at least two occasions, Hopkins was nothing more than a tough middleweight and both times it came against guys who made him chase them. The first was when Roy Jones decisioned him in May 1993, and the second when the entirely unremarkable Segundo Mercado floored him twice and held him to a draw about 18 months later.

You could forgive the loss to Jones, who was about as good that night as he ever would be. He was light years faster than Hopkins and Hopkins, being a tough guy, went after him as best he could but never got close. His feet weren't quick enough to get him in position to counter Jones, and his hands weren't, either. He lost by three scores of 116-112 and it wasn't that close. Don't let Bernard fool you.

The draw against Mercado is more telling. Hopkins the hunter did well early, hurting Mercado in the first and probably flooring him in the second, though the referee ruled it a slip. So he kept after Mercado, kept rushing him, and in the fifth he walked into a short right that dropped him. And it was no flash knockdown. He was hurt. Same thing two rounds later.

At times Mercado made Hopkins look awful and had little trouble finding Hopkins' jaw with counters. But Hopkins did damage too, especially late, and that late work got him the draw. (And don't believe that hooey about the draw being dirty because the fight took place in Equador; two of the three judges were American, as was the referee.)

You might dismiss this all as nonsense - Jones was extraordinary, and Hopkins overwhelmed Mercado in the rematch to win the title and besides, both took place a decade ago. But the fact remains; in his best performances Hopkins is the pursued. In his worst, he is the pursuer. It's who he is. And the older he's gotten the more patient he's gotten. He less a puncher now than he's ever been.

Against De La Hoya, Hopkins will almost certainly be the pursuer. Like everyone says, he's bigger, stronger, more powerful. His physical advantages dictate that he come forward. He almost has to. And maybe he wins that way anyway. But as long as he comes forward he gives De La Hoya a chance. And it's a very good chance. It's when Hopkins backs up that De La Hoya has to worry.